Bodo Glimt VS KFUM Oslo

Bodo/Glimt welcome KFUM Oslo for this Eliteserien round 10 battle at Aspmyra Stadion very early Saturday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is pretty average by European standards. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of only mediocre level by this league's standards – mainly because of the huge difference in class between the two teams. Betting-wise, too, this match is a very interesting one for us serious, profit-hungry bettors! I expect the hosts to control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes of play. The visitors will be forced to defend hard and do have some potential for counter attacks but Bodo's defence is extremely solid and they are used to the opponent depending mainly on counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks – or a possible penalty – especially at Aspmyra Stadion. They currently top the standings with an impressive 22 points to their account. Moreover, they have won seven of the nine games in Eliteserien. Their defence simply has no weaknesses – they have allowed only six goals. Yes, much bigger teams in Europe can, of course, score many goals against Bodo but against an opponent like KFUM I trust the hosts' skilled and almost error-free defenders a lot. Bodo did pretty well in the UEFA Europa Conference League, losing to a hugely bigger team, Ajax from the Netherlands, 3-4 on aggregate after extratime in February. In the first leg in Amsterdam Ajax were the better team but it was a 2-2 draw. In the 2nd leg Bodo were much better, recording a whopping 25 goal attempts and hugely more goal attempts – 123-18 to be precise! The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.89-1.02! I am mentioning this to give an example of how good Bodo can be! KFUM were promoted to this level from the OBOS-Ligaen, the 2nd tier, for this season. They are a small team for this level in terms of financial resources, fan-base and players' estimated total market value – according to a well-known and respected source, Transfermarkt.com. Indeed, the KFUM squad is valued at only around six million euros. The Bodo players' are valued at around 40 million!

I want to highlight that KFUM were not even the best team in the OBOS-Ligaen last season. Yes, they finished in 2nd place with 58 points in their pocket. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was "only" 53.12. They are in 6th place at the moment with 13 points but have been lucky in many games and will almost certainly drop down in the standings as the season progresses.. Their number of xPTS is only 9.23. They have both conceded and allowed 10 goals. However, their defence is very vulnerable for this level – despite the pretty good structure - their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 14.12. Bodo have huge offensive power and have various offensive strategies/formations to break the opponent's defence. They have netted the ball an impressive 21 times in this league. In their last game they lost to HamKam 0-1 on the road but were the better team on the pitch. Indeed, they had 77% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (13-5), shots on goal, shots off goal (5-2), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks! The bookies have reacted too heavily to this defeat. Odds of 1.72 are widely available on the Bodo -1.5 goals handicap and this is too high. With the expected lineups they have a 64% chance of winning by a margin of at least two goals. Before this Bodo took four five wins, scoring a total of nine goals. In round 8 Bodo crushed Tromso 4-0 and proved that their offense is extremely strong for this league. Tromso did, however, have their chances to score too. KFUM have been in mediocre form recently, taking one loss and draw – and losing once in their last three games. However, the opponents have been far from Bodo's caliber! In their last game they faced Odd at home as very clear favourites – priced around 1.70 to win by the bookies. Yes, they had 65% ball possession but recorded only one shot on target. KFUM did have one more shot on goal than Odd but it was clear that they were overrated by the bookies. Before this they beat Rosenborg 3-1 on the road but the hosts had 60% ball possession and recorded many more attacks and dangerous attacks – 57-26. Indeed, the score is misleading and probably affects the odds here..

Bodo Glimt VS KFUM Oslo

Bodo/Glimt欢迎奥斯陆KFUM参加北京时间周六凌晨在Aspmyra体育场举行的精英联赛第10轮比赛。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是相当平均的。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待的是，按照这个联赛的标准，这场比赛的水平只能是平庸的——主要是因为两支球队在级别上的巨大差异。赌博方面，同样，这场比赛是一个非常有趣的一个对我们认真的，利润饥渴的赌徒!我希望东道主能在90分钟比赛的大部分时间里控制场上的局势。客队将被迫加强防守，并有反击的潜力，但博多的防守非常稳固，他们主要依靠反击、角球、任意球或可能的点球来对付对手，尤其是在阿斯迈拉球场。他们目前以令人印象深刻的22分排名第一。此外，他们在埃利特塞林的9场比赛中赢了7场。他们的防守根本没有弱点——他们只丢了6个球。是的，欧洲更大的球队当然可以在对阵博多的比赛中进很多球，但面对像KFUM这样的对手，我非常信任东道主技术娴熟、几乎没有失误的后卫。博多在欧联杯联赛中表现相当出色，在2月份的加时赛中以总比分3-4输给了实力更大的荷兰球队阿贾克斯。在阿姆斯特丹的首回合比赛中，阿贾克斯表现更好，但最终以2比2战平。在第二回合的比赛中，博多的表现要好得多，他们射门次数高达25次，更准确地说是123比18 !预期目标(xG)数字是2.89-1.02!我提到这个是为了给大家一个Bodo有多好的例子!KFUM是在本赛季从二级联赛OBOS-Ligaen升入二级联赛的。根据知名且受人尊敬的消息来源Transfermarkt.com的数据，从财政资源、球迷基础和球员估计的总市场价值来看，他们在这个级别上是一支小球队。事实上，KFUM队的价值仅为600万欧元左右。Bodo球员的身价约为4000万美元!

我想强调的是，KFUM在上个赛季的OBOS-Ligaen比赛中甚至都不是最好的球队。是的，他们以58分排名第二。他们的期望值(xPTS)“仅”为53.12。他们目前以13分排在第6位，但在许多比赛中他们都很幸运，随着赛季的进行，他们的排名几乎肯定会下降。他们的xPTS数量只有9.23个。他们都丢了10个球。然而，他们的防守在这个级别上是非常脆弱的——尽管他们的结构很好——他们的预期进球(xGA)是14.12。博多有巨大的进攻力量，有各种进攻策略和阵型来打破对手的防守。他们在这个联赛中有令人印象深刻的21次进球。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场0-1输给了哈姆卡姆，但在球场上他们表现得更好。事实上，他们有77%的控球率，并且有更多的进球尝试(13胜5负)、射正、射偏(5胜2负)、角球、进攻和危险进攻!博彩公司对这次失败反应过度。在Bodo -1.5的进球障碍上，1.72的赔率普遍存在，这太高了。根据预期的阵容，他们有64%的机会以至少两个球的优势获胜。在此之前，博多取得了4场5胜，总共进了9个球。在第8轮，博多4-0击败了特罗姆瑟，证明了他们的进攻在这个联赛中是非常强大的。然而，特罗姆瑟也有进球的机会。KFUM最近表现平平，一负一平，最近三场比赛输了一场。然而，对手们远没有达到博多的水平!在他们的上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对奇数队，这是非常明显的夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的赔率在1.70左右。是的，他们有65%的控球率，但只有一次射正。KFUM确实比Odd多射门一次，但很明显他们被博彩公司高估了。在此之前，他们在客场3-1击败了罗森堡，但主队控球率为60%，并且创造了更多的进攻和危险进攻——57比26。事实上，这个分数是有误导性的，可能会影响到赔率。