Varbergs BoIS FC VS IK Oddevold

Varberg welcome Oddevold for this Superettan round 9 battle at Paskbergsvallen early Friday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is relatively low by European standards – even for a second tier. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of only mediocre level by this league's standards. However, betting-wise this match is a very promising one for us serious bettors! Oddevold were promoted to this level for this season. They are a rather small team in terms of financial resources, fan-base and historical success. They have started the season better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. However, now bookies seem to respect them a bit too much. However, this pick is mainly based on the potential Varberg have for improvement. I give this potential much more emphasis than the bookies do. The potential is there – let's take a closer look..

Indeed, I want to highlight that according to a well-known and respected German website the hosts are the bigger team here – by a very big margin! Indeed, their squad is valued at around 4.6 million euros. The Oddevold players, on the other hand, are valued at only some 575 000 euros. Yes, this is too low but the gap is still big in the hosts' favour! The 575 000 euros is very low even by this league's standards! Oddevold currently occupy the 8th place in the standings. They have taken 12 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is lower – 10.21 to be precise. They have scored seven goals, the same number as the hosts. However, Varbergs's number of expected goals (xGA) is slightly bigger! Varberg's defence has not been as poor as the number of goals conceded (14) would reflect. Yes, their defenders have made too many silly mistakes and the midfielders have not been active enough in defending. However, their defensive structure has been okay in most games! Last season they still played in the first tier, Allsvenskan, but finished in last place after a messy season in many ways. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 11.04. Oddevold have allowed eight goals but have been lucky in terms of (xGA).

The hosts have lost three games in a row but the bookies have overreacted to this defeates! In their last game they lost to Sandvikden 1-3 on the road but recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Indeed, the final score is very misleading! Before this it was a pretty balanced game at home against Orgryte but the visitors won 3-1. The hosts had 51% ball possession and recorded more attacks than the visitors. Orgryte recorded one more shot on goal and shot off target though. Oddevold have taken one win in their last three games. In their last game Oddevold locked horns with Brage as narrow favourites on the betting market. It was a 1-1 draw in the end. The visitors had 60% ball possession but Brage recorded many more goal attempts (10-5), shots off goal (7-1), corner kicks (7-3), attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this Oddevold were poor – losing to Oster 0-3 on the road. The hosts had many more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-1) attacks and dangerous attacks. In round 6 Oddevold beat a pretty limited team, Sundsvall, who are currently in 14th place, as very clear favourites – priced around 1.70 to win at the time of kickoff. Yes, they deserved to win but the ball possession was 49-51% and the visitors even recorded more attacks. Oddevold's performance did not really impress me as a whole..

Most bookies see this game as more or less as a coin toss – offering both teams odds of around 2.50-2.70 to win. I have to disagree. With the expected lineups, based on my expert analysis, I see the hosts as favourites – with a 43% chance of sending the visitors home empty-handed. We will take the +0.5 goals handicap option!

瓦尔伯格队VS奇德沃尔德队

北京时间周五凌晨，瓦尔伯格欢迎奥德沃尔德参加在帕斯卡伯格的第九轮超级联赛。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平相对较低——即使是二线联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待的是，按照这个联赛的标准，这场比赛只能达到中等水平。然而，在投注方面，这场比赛对我们这些严肃的投注者来说是非常有希望的!奥德沃尔德本赛季被提升到这个级别。就财政资源、粉丝基础和历史成就而言，他们是一支相当小的球队。他们这个赛季的开局比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。然而，现在博彩公司似乎过于尊重他们了。然而，这个选择主要是基于潜在的瓦尔伯格有进步。我比赌徒们更重视这个潜力。潜力就在那里——让我们仔细看看……

事实上，我想强调的是，根据一个著名的、受人尊敬的德国网站，东道主在这里是一个更大的团队——以非常大的差距!事实上，他们的阵容价值约为460万欧元。另一方面，奇德沃尔德球员的身价仅为57.5万欧元。是的，这个比分太低了，但东道主的优势仍然很大!57.5万欧元即使以这个联赛的标准来看也是很低的!奥德沃尔德目前在积分榜上排名第八。他们拿到了12分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)更低，准确地说是10.21分。他们进了7个球，和东道主一样多。然而，Varbergs的预期进球数(xGA)略大!瓦尔伯格的防守并不像丢球数(14球)所反映的那样糟糕。是的，他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的错误，中场球员在防守中不够积极。然而，他们的防守结构在大多数比赛中都是不错的!上个赛季，他们仍然在第一梯队阿尔斯温斯坎队踢球，但在经历了一个混乱的赛季后，他们在很多方面都排在了最后。他们的预期进球数(xGA)是11.04。奇德沃尔德丢了8个球，但在射门方面还算幸运。

东道主已经连续输了三场比赛，但是博彩公司对这场失利反应过度了!在上一场比赛中，他们客场1-3不敌桑维克登，但他们的进球次数、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。的确，最后的分数很容易误导人!在此之前，主场对阵奥格里特的比赛相当平衡，但客队以3-1获胜。主队拥有51%的控球率，进攻次数也比客队多。奥格里特又一次射门，但却射偏了。奇德沃尔德在最近三场比赛中只取得了一场胜利。在他们的上一场比赛中，奇德沃尔德在博彩市场上以微弱优势与布拉日交锋。最后以1比1战平。客队有60%的控球率，但布拉日的进球次数更多(10比5)，射偏(7比1)，角球(7比3)，进攻和危险进攻。在此之前，奇德沃尔德很穷——客场0-3输给奥斯特。主队有更多的进球尝试、射门(6-1)和危险进攻。在第六轮比赛中，奇德沃尔德击败了一支实力相当有限的球队，目前排名第14位的松斯瓦尔，他们是非常明显的热门球队，开球时的胜率约为1.70英镑。是的，他们应该赢，但是控球率是49比51%，客队甚至有更多的进攻。总的来说，奥德沃尔德的表演并没有给我留下深刻的印象。

大多数博彩公司认为这场比赛或多或少就像掷硬币一样，两队获胜的赔率都在2.50-2.70之间。我不同意。根据我的专家分析，对于预期的阵容，我认为东道主是最受欢迎的——有43%的机会让客队空手而归。我们将采用+0.5个进球的障碍选项!