Crystal Palace VS Aston Villa

Crystal Palace and Aston Villa lock horns in this English Premier League round 38 battle at Selhurst Park London) late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the best league in the world as a whole! The fact that no English team made it to the UEFA Champions League – or Europa League - final this season does not change this fact. Football enthusiasts and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of slightly better than average quality by this league's standards. However, we have won an amazing 10 picks in a row betting on this league and have yet another very promising game here – betting-wise at least I mean. I will be posting two more picks on Sunday's Premier League games! This is the 38th - and last round of the Premier League season. Not that many teams have much to play for left – in terms of qualifying for one of UEFA's club competitions – or being relegated to the Championship for next season. This is the case here as well. Crystal Palace are in 12th place with 46 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is higher though – 49.65 to be precise. They have scored 52 goals in this league but their number of expected goals (xG) is a bit bigger. They have conceded 58 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 56.14. However, starting from their first game under the new manager, Austrian O. Glasner their results and all the statistics have been hugely better than under the previous manager, R. Hodgson! In the first game under Glasner Crystal Palace crushed Burnley at home 3-0, generating 3.12 in xG. Burnley managed only 0.12. There have been a lot of rumors in the football media about some much bigger teams being interested in this great coach! I trust him a lot in terms of both tactical skills and in particular as a leader/motivator. He seems to have transformed this club that had been stuck in the middle of the table for a long time completely and the players' level of confidence has been sky-high under his leadership! He has been praised in the football media globally but it seems to bookies still fail to fully realize just how much Crystal Palace have improved!

Crystal Palace have won five of their last six games. In their last game they faced a decent team, Wolves who are currently in 13th place, on the road and took a fine 3-1 win. They generated 2.87 in xG – the hosts managed 1.22. Before this they humiliated Man United at home – winning 4-0! They recorded many more goal attempts (18-7), shots on goal (10-2), shots off target, corner kicks, attacks as well as dangerous attacks. Crystal Palace, once again, defended in a very organized way - allowing Man United only 0.34 in xG. In round 35 Crystal Palace locked horns with Fulham away from home as clear underdogs. Fulham were priced around 2.05-2.10 to win on the betting market. However, the visitors recorded many more goal attempts (14-9), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were very balanced 1.13-1.11 to be precise. Before this Crystal Palace were priced around 3.20 to win by the bookies against a very dangerous team, Newcastle, at home. However, they took a fine 2-0 win! Crystal Palace recorded many more goal attempts (20-7), shots on goal (7-2), shots off target (13-5), corner kicks (7-2), attacks as well as dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 1.45-0.56. The enthusiastic Palace fans were ecstatic at the stadium!

As I have mentioned many times before, in England – and in many other big football countries - doing well in the very last home is widely considered very important! I have taken this into account in my probability estimation. With the expected lineups odds of slightly above 1.80 are widely available on the home win on the betting market and this is way too high! In my over 23 years of very profitable professional football betting I have realised that the bookies and recreational bettors regularly fail to give this factor enough emphasis, but this fully applies to situations where the away team has nothing to play for.. This is the case here – Aston Villa have secured 4th place – and place in the UEFA Champions League for next season. This is a big surprise and an amazing achievement but in reality they did not deserve this place! They grabbed 68 points but their number of xPTS is only 53.56! They have netted the ball 76 times but their number of xG is 65.67. Furthermore, they have conceded 56 goals – just two less than the hosts and their number of xGA is 65.44. Some of their players were shown in the media watching the Tottenham against Man City game in Tuesday England time - hoping for Tottenham to lose. They did, 0-2 to be precise. This secured 4th place for Aston Villa – resulting in wild celebrations – quite possibly with some alcoholic beverages.. I'm not implying that they would not be match-fit physically but surely not all of their players are 100% mentally and physically ready for this tricky away game.. At least, as mentioned, they have nothing to play for and that alone offers the home team – who are in hugely better form - a big edge compared to a "normal" mid-season game.. I expect Villa's manager, U. Emery, to do some squad rotation – possibly even heavy – here! Many of his key players have played a lot of minutes this season as Villa do not have a very deep squad - in terms of top-quality players at least. As a result many of the best Villa players have looked exhausted on the pitch recently - and have possibly even playing with some minor injuries.. Indeed, for this reason - and the basic fact that lucky Aston Villa are only in 7th place in my power rating - have been in significant decline recently in terms of both performances on the pitch and results-wise. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting lineup – excluding the motivation factor as well as the possible fatigue – caused by a demanding schedule. Villa have not won any of their last five games – losing 3/5 matches.

In their last game Aston Villa were hugely motivated to take points to take 4th place and grabbed a point against Liverpool through a 3-3 draw in a pretty balanced and entertaining clash. It somehow looked like the Villa players used their "last energy" in this huge game and showed that they can - on good day - play well. However, let's remember that Liverpool had nothing to play for as they will finish 3rd. There is this public narrative that Liverpool are playing for their legendary manager, Klopp, who is leaving the club after today's game but I do not quite agree as the evidence is not really there.. In fact, Liverpool have been disappointing for many weeks already, even getting beaten by Atalanta in the UEFA Europa League 1-3 on aggregate as big favourites to qualify! Before the Liverpool game Villa lost to Olympiacos Piraeus in Greece in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd leg battle as very clear favourites – priced around 2.00-2.05 to win by the bookies at the time of kickoff. Olympiacos, a much smaller team than Aston Villa, qualified 6-2 on aggregate! Villa had 70% ball possession in the 2nd leg but both teams generated 1.33 in xG. In the first leg Aston Villa were the better team on the pitch – the final score 2-4 is unarguably misleading. Villa were heavy favourites - priced around 1.45 to win on the betting market - but recorded, after all, only a little more than Olympiacos in xG. It was a lame performance as a whole from the team from Birmingham.. In round 36 of the Premier League Villa were simply abysmal – despite losing only 0-1 away from home against Brighton. The hosts had an impressive 15 goal attempts – Villa managed only two. Moreover Brighton, who had been in very poor form - failing to win six of their last games at the time– recorded eight shots on goal! Aston Villa's number was absolutely pathetic – 0.05 to be precise! An xG this low is very rare in this league - and in in professional football in general. I expect a relaxed and entertaining game where neither team is two interested in defending - why would they be.. Players will surely want to entertain the fans and try to score some goals to get some personal performance-based bonuses that they probably have on their contracts.. There will be a decent numbers of Villa fans at the stadium but they have understandably been in "party mode" for days as their dream of Champions League has finally come true! I do not think they will really care that much even of their team were to lose 2-5 or something like that.. The goal expectancy is very high - even bigger than the bookies think. The probability of over 3.5 total goals to be scored is 53.50%

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水晶宫VS阿斯顿维拉

北京时间周日晚，水晶宫和阿斯顿维拉将在英超联赛第38轮在伦敦塞尔赫斯特公园球场展开激战。这是世界上最好的联赛!尽管本赛季没有一支英格兰球队进入欧冠或欧联杯决赛，但这并不能改变这一事实。按照联赛的标准，足球爱好者和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场略高于平均水平的比赛。然而，我们已经在这个联赛中连续赢得了惊人的10个选秀权，并且在这里还有另一场非常有希望的比赛-至少我的意思是博彩方面。我将在周日的英超比赛中再发表两篇文章!这是英超赛季的第38轮，也是最后一轮。没有多少球队有太多的比赛要做——从欧足联俱乐部比赛的资格来看——或者下赛季降级到英冠。这也是这里的情况。水晶宫以46分排在第12位。他们的期望值(xPTS)更高——准确地说是49.65。他们在联赛中打进了52球，但他们的预期进球(xG)要大一些。他们丢了58个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是56.14个。然而，从他们在新主帅奥地利人O.格拉斯纳的带领下的第一场比赛开始，他们的成绩和所有数据都比前任主帅R.霍奇森的表现要好得多!在格拉斯纳治下的第一场比赛中，水晶宫主场3-0大胜伯恩利，全场进球3.12。伯恩利仅获得0.12分。足球媒体上有很多传言说一些更大的球队对这位伟大的教练感兴趣!我非常信任他的战术技巧，尤其是作为一个领导者和激励者。在他的带领下，他似乎彻底改变了这个长期处于积分榜中游的俱乐部，球员们的信心也高涨起来!他受到了全球足球媒体的赞扬，但似乎博彩公司仍然没有完全意识到水晶宫有多大的进步!

水晶宫在最近6场比赛中赢了5场。在他们的上一场比赛中，他们面对的是一支不错的球队，目前排名第13位的狼队，他们在客场取得了一场3-1的胜利。他们在xG中产生了2.87，而东道主只产生了1.22。在此之前，他们在主场4-0羞辱了曼联!他们记录了更多的进球尝试(18-7)、射正(10-2)、射偏、角球、攻击以及危险攻击。水晶宫的防守又一次非常有组织，只给曼联0.34分。在第35轮比赛中，水晶宫在客场与富勒姆交手，显然处于劣势。在博彩市场上，富勒姆的胜率在2.05-2.10左右。然而，客队的进球次数(14胜9负)、射正、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻都更多。xG数字非常平衡，准确地说是1.13-1.11。在此之前，水晶宫在主场与一支非常危险的球队纽卡斯尔的比赛中获胜的赌注约为3.20英镑。然而，他们以2:0大胜!水晶宫的进球次数更多(20胜7负)，射正(7胜2负)，射偏(13胜5负)，角球(7胜2负)，进攻和危险进攻也更多。xG值为1.45 ~ 0.56。热情的宫殿球迷在体育场欣喜若狂!

正如我之前多次提到的，在英格兰——以及许多其他足球大国——在最后一个主场取得好成绩被普遍认为是非常重要的!我在我的概率估计中考虑到了这一点。随着预期的阵容赔率略高于1.80，在投注市场上的主场胜利是广泛可用的，这是太高了!在我超过23年的非常赚钱的职业足球博彩中，我意识到博彩公司和娱乐投注者经常没有给予这个因素足够的重视，但这完全适用于客场球队没有任何比赛的情况。现在的情况就是这样——阿斯顿维拉已经获得了联赛第四名，并获得了下赛季欧洲冠军联赛的席位。这是一个巨大的惊喜和惊人的成就，但实际上他们不配得到这个地方!他们拿到了68分，但他们的得分只有53.56分!他们有76次进球，但他们的xG数是65.67。此外，他们丢了56个球，只比东道主少2个，他们的总进球数是65.44。他们的一些球员在媒体上观看了英格兰时间周二热刺对曼城的比赛，希望热刺输掉比赛。他们这么做了,

准确地说是0-2。这确保了阿斯顿维拉获得第四名——结果是疯狂的庆祝——很可能是一些酒精饮料。我并不是说他们的身体状况不适合比赛，但可以肯定的是，并不是所有的球员在精神上和身体上都为这场棘手的客场比赛做好了100%的准备。至少，就像前面提到的，他们没有什么可踢的，这就给主队提供了一个比“正常”的赛季中期比赛更大的优势——主队状态要好得多。我希望维拉的主教练埃梅里在这里进行一些阵容轮换——甚至可能是更重的轮换!他的许多关键球员本赛季都打了很多时间，因为维拉的阵容并不强大——至少在顶级球员方面。因此，维拉的许多最好的球员最近在球场上看起来很疲惫，甚至可能有一些轻微的伤病。事实上，由于这个原因——以及幸运的阿斯顿维拉在我的能量评分中只排在第7位的基本事实——最近在球场上的表现和结果方面都有明显的下降。这个评级反映了球队的纯粹等级，他们拥有最好的首发阵容——排除了动力因素和可能的疲劳——由高强度的赛程引起的。维拉最近5场比赛没有赢过一场，5场比赛输了3场。

在上一场比赛中，阿斯顿维拉非常积极地拿分以获得第四名，并在一场相当平衡和有趣的比赛中以3-3逼平利物浦获得一分。从某种程度上看，维拉球员在这场重要的比赛中用尽了“最后的能量”，并证明了他们可以——在好的时候——踢得很好。然而，让我们记住利物浦没有什么可踢的，因为他们将获得第三名。有一种公开的说法是，利物浦是在为他们的传奇主帅克洛普效力，他将在今天的比赛后离开俱乐部，但我不太同意，因为没有真正的证据。事实上，利物浦已经让人失望了好几个星期了，甚至在欧联杯中被亚特兰大以总比分1-3击败，成为出线的大热门!在与利物浦的比赛之前，维拉在欧联杯第二回合输给了希腊的奥林匹亚科斯比雷埃夫斯，是非常明显的热门球队，在开球时，博彩公司的定价在2.00-2.05左右。奥林匹亚科斯，一支比阿斯顿维拉小得多的球队，以总比分6-2出线!维拉在第二回合拥有70%的控球率，但两队在xG上都创造了1.33个进球。第一回合阿斯顿维拉在球场上表现更好——2-4的最终比分毫无疑问是误导。维拉是最受欢迎的球队，在博彩市场上的赔率约为1.45，但在xG的记录中，毕竟只比奥林匹亚科斯多一点点。伯明翰队的整体表现很差劲。在英超联赛第36轮，维拉的表现简直糟透了——尽管客场只0-1输给了布莱顿。主队有令人印象深刻的15次进球尝试，维拉只有2次。此外，布莱顿的状态非常糟糕，他们在最近的比赛中有6场没有获胜，他们有8次射门!阿斯顿维拉的数字绝对可怜——准确地说是0.05 !如此低的xG在这个联赛中是非常罕见的，在职业足球中也是如此。我期待一场轻松有趣的比赛，两支球队都不会对防守感兴趣——为什么他们会…球员肯定会想要取悦球迷，并尝试进一些球，以获得一些基于个人表现的奖金，这可能是他们合同上的条款。在球场上会有相当数量的维拉球迷，但可以理解的是，他们几天来一直处于“派对模式”，因为他们的欧冠梦想终于实现了!我不认为他们真的会在意他们的球队输掉2-5或者类似的事情。人们对进球的期望非常高，甚至比博彩公司认为的还要高。总进球数超过3.5个的概率为53.50%