Crawley Town VS Milton Keynes Dons

Crawley and MK Dons lock horns in this League Two Playoffs semifinals first leg battle at The Broadfield Stadium late Monday evening Beijing time. This is the fourth-highest level of English football and it is definitely the best fourth tier on the planet. The players in League Two are full time professional footballers. It is a pretty physical league as a whole and I expect this match to be even more intense – quite possible with a lot of heated moments.. Indeed, the stakes are high here as the winners of the matchup (on aggregate) will keep their hopes of being promoted to the League One for the next season. This would be a massive thing for the clubs financially – and would probably bring many of the players some bonuses, as well as quite possibly a bigger salary for next season.. I expect a more cautious and defensive game than if it was a normal regular season game.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is lower than the bookies estimate – 44% to be precise. Neither team will want to "lose their chances" in the first leg – ie. end up trailing by a margin of more than two goals.. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of significantly better than average quality here between these two teams by this league's standards. Betting-wise the game is very lucrative and we have a great chance of extending the streak of 7/8 last picks won betting on this league! Crawley have played a much better season than anyone probably would have expected before the season started in August 2023. Last season they had to fight hard to avoid relegation! I have raised their power rating significantly from the in-depth preseason analysis! This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting lineup – excluding the motivation factor as well as the possible fatigue – caused by a demanding schedule. MK Dons, on the other hand, have been a slight disappointment to me as a whole season.

It is true that Crawley do not have the "biggest names" in the team but play very well as a team – keeping the distances between the players short – especially when playing against the top-teams! According to my sources they also have an excellent team spirit! Furthermore, I trust their manager, S. Lindsay, a lot in terms of both tactical skills and as a leader. He would deserve more respect in the English football media – as would Crawley! They grabbed a fine 70 points in the regular season and were not really lucky – or unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They do not have any obvious strengths or weaknesses in their game. Indeed, they scored 73 goals in the 46 games in League Two. The visitors do have more offensive power – mainly thanks to having more skilled offensive players on average than Crawley. Yes, MK Dons netted the ball 83 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) was "only" 78.98. Crawley, however, conceded one goal less (67) than MK Dons. With the expected lineups MK Dons are arguably the stronger team here – but only by a very thin margin. Taking into account the substantial home advantage, Crawley are the more likely winners in the first leg. There is a huge football "boom" in Crawley and I expect the atmosphere at the stadium to be ecstatic here! The bookies have made yet another mistake and see the visitors as favourites here – offering them odds of around 2.40 to win. The Crawley +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here! 

In their last game Crawley defeated Grimsby in front of their loud fans 2-0 despite not being at their best. The recorded five shots on goal – Grimsby had only two. Grimsby, a pretty lowly team, played much better than usual and did have some decent chances to score. Crawley, however, deserved to win. They have to, and surely will, improve from this game if they want to beat MK Dons. Before this they faced Sutton on the road and it was a 2-2 draw as solid underdogs on the betting market. Sutton were extremely motivated in this game,  desperately trying to avoid relegation. However, Crawley were the better team on the pitch – having 55.4% ball possession generating much more in xG than the hosts – 2.31-0.89 to be precise. It was yet another example of the bookies underestimating Crawley! In round 36 Crawley locked horns at home with a dangerous team, Barrow (8th place) and it was a 1-1 draw. Crawley had 71% ball possession and generated much more in xG than Barrow – 2.05-0.98. MK Dons have won one of their last three games. In their last game they faced Sutton at home as clear favourites but it was a 4-4 draw! A fun game to watch but MK Dons' defence was very disorganized. The visitors recorded more goal attempts, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. MK Dons had one more goal attempt though. Before this they were priced around 2.10 to win by the bookies on the road against Harrogate and did win 5-3 but recorded only one more goal attempt than the hosts. Harrogate had three more shots off goal but MK Dons did generate more in xG. It was not a solid performance as a whole despite taking the three points.. In round 44 MK Dons were abysmal - losing to Mansfield 1-4 at home as narrow favourites on the betting market at the time of kickoff. MK Dons had 64% ball possession but the visitors generated massively more in xG – 2.56-0.48 to be precise. Allowing a total of 11 goals in three games is very worrying for MK Dons!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

克劳利队VS米尔顿凯恩斯队

北京时间周一晚，克劳利和MK唐斯将在布罗德菲尔德球场进行英乙季后赛半决赛首回合的较量。这是英格兰足球的第四高水平，绝对是这个星球上最好的第四梯队。乙级联赛的球员是全职职业足球运动员。总的来说，这是一个非常激烈的联赛，我希望这场比赛更加激烈——很可能有很多激烈的时刻……事实上，这里的赌注很高，因为这场比赛的获胜者(总比分)将保留他们下赛季升入英甲的希望。这对俱乐部来说是一件经济上的大事，可能会给许多球员带来一些奖金，很可能下赛季的薪水也会更高。我希望这是一场比常规赛更加谨慎和防守的比赛。总进球数少于2.5球的概率比博彩公司估计的要低——准确地说是44%。两队都不想在第一回合“失去机会”。最终以两个多球的差距落后。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛，以联赛的标准来看，比赛的质量要比平均水平好得多。从赌博的角度来看，这场比赛是非常有利可图的，我们有很大的机会延续7/8的连胜纪录。在2023年8月赛季开始之前，克劳利的表现可能比任何人预期的都要好得多。上个赛季，他们为了保级不得不奋力拼搏!根据季前赛的深入分析，我已经大大提高了他们的能量评级!这个评级反映了球队的纯粹等级，他们拥有最好的首发阵容——排除了动力因素和可能的疲劳——由高强度的赛程引起的。另一方面，MK - Dons整个赛季都让我有点失望。

克劳利确实没有“大牌球员”，但作为一个团队，他们踢得很好——保持球员之间的距离很短——尤其是在对阵顶级球队的时候!据我所知，他们也有出色的团队精神!此外，我非常信任他们的经理林赛，无论是战术技巧还是领导能力。他应该得到英格兰足球媒体更多的尊重——克劳利也是!他们在常规赛中拿到了整整70分，并不是真的幸运——或者从预期积分(xPTS)的角度来看是不幸的。他们在游戏中没有任何明显的优势或劣势。事实上，他们在46场英乙比赛中进了73球。客队确实有更强的进攻能力——主要是因为他们拥有比克劳利更有技术的进攻球员。是的，MK唐斯打进了83球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)“只有”78.98。然而，克劳利比唐斯少丢1球(67球)。有了预期的阵容，MK Dons可以说是这里更强大的队伍——但只是非常微弱的差距。考虑到巨大的主场优势，克劳利更有可能在首回合获胜。克劳利有一个巨大的足球“热潮”，我希望球场的气氛是狂喜的!博彩公司又犯了一个错误，他们把客队视为夺冠热门——给他们开出了2.40左右的赔率。克劳利+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的选择!

在他们的上一场比赛中，克劳利在他们喧闹的球迷面前以2:0击败了格里姆斯比，尽管他们并没有处于最佳状态。记录中有5次射门，格里姆斯比只有2次。格里姆斯比，一支相当低级的球队，踢得比平时好得多，而且确实有一些不错的得分机会。然而，克劳利理应获胜。如果他们想要打败MK，他们必须，也一定会从这场比赛中进步。在此之前，他们在客场面对萨顿，并在博彩市场上以2比2战平。萨顿在这场比赛中非常有动力，拼命想要保级。然而，克劳利在球场上表现得更好，他们的控球率为55.4%，比主队高出很多，准确地说是2.31-0.89。这又是一个赌马人低估克劳利的例子!在第36轮比赛中，克劳利在主场与一支危险的球队巴罗(第八名)交手，双方1-1战平。克劳利有71%的控球率，在全场比赛中产生的球比巴罗(2.05-0.98)多得多。MK队最近三场比赛赢了一场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对萨顿，这是一个明显的热门，但结果是4比4的平局!这是一场有趣的比赛，但是MK - Dons的防守非常混乱。客队有更多的射门机会，角球

攻击和危险的攻击。MK - Dons还有一个进球尝试。在此之前，在客场对阵哈罗盖特的比赛中，博彩公司对他们的赔率在2.10左右，他们确实以5-3获胜，但只比东道主多进了一个球。哈罗盖特有三次射门偏门，但MK - Dons在xG创造了更多机会。尽管拿到了三分，但从整体上看，这并不是一场稳定的比赛。在第44轮比赛中，MK唐斯表现糟糕，在主场1-4输给了曼斯菲尔德，在开球时，在博彩市场上被看好的可能性很小。MK - Dons有64%的控球率，但客队的控球率要高得多，准确地说是2.56-0.48。三场比赛总共丢了11个球，这对曼联来说是非常令人担忧的!