Hannover 96 VS SC Paderborn 07

Hannover welcome Paderborn for this German 2. Bundesliga round 32 battle at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena Sunday evening Beijing time. This the second-best second tier in the world, behind the English Championship. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better than average quality here between these two teams. However, betting-wise the game is very lucrative and we have a great chance of extending the streak of 4/5 last picks won betting on this league! I will post several more picks for tomorrow.. A total of 34 rounds will be played. The top-2 teams will be directly promoted to the Bundesliga for next season. The team that finishes in 3rd place will face a Bundesliga team to decide which team plays in the first tier next season. However, neither Hannover nor Paderborn have a chance to make it to the top-3 anymore. This means that the players play mainly for the fans – some of course have individual performance-based bonuses in their contracts.. In these kinds of games the home team on average have a stronger chance of winning than the bookies believe as almost all teams want to entertain the home fans and thank them for the support throughout the long season! Moreover, Hannover has loud and enthusiastic fans – for this league's standards I mean. Both teams' head coaches might well do some squad rotation here but this will probably not hurt Hannover's chances of winning. In fact, the opposite could be true as Hannover have a deeper squad than Paderborn! According to a well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts are the much bigger club here. Indeed, their players are valued at and estimated approximately 29 million euros. This is more or less correct in my expert opinion. The Paderborn squad is valued at about 19 million - which is too high! Three players are overvalued. Hannover currently occupy the 6th place in the standings, the visitors are in 7th place. Both have grabbed a total of 46 points. However, the hosts' number of expected points (xPTS) is pretty clearly higher – 47.35 to be precise. Paderborn's xPTS is only 41.46. The hosts have an edge over the visitors in all areas of the game. They have netted the ball 53 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is 57.53. The visitors have scored 49 goals. Hannover's defence is much more better organized than Paderborn's - silly individual mistakes are fewer. Hannover have allowed only 39 goals, just two more than Holstein Kiel (2nd place) and Dusseldorf (3rd place). The visitors' defence is pretty shaky – they have conceded 50 goals – that is four more goals than a small team, Wehen - currently in 16th place, have allowed!

The biggest bookies who accept the biggest stakes from customers – of course - see Hannover as favourites here – offering them odds of around 2.10-2.15 to send Paderborn home empty-handed. However, this is still definitely too high! I expect Paderborn's odds to go up before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts.. Based on my strongly data-based in-depth expert analysis the hosts have a 54.50% chance to win this game! Both teams have been in mediocre form recently. The hosts have lost two of their last 10 games – Paderborn have suffered a defeat four times in the most recent 10 matches. However, the hosts have not taken many wins recently. It seems that the bookies have overreacted to the very latest results and we must take advantage of this! We must realize that Hannover have had a lot of bad luck lately.. In their last game they faced Hertha Berlin, a big team for this level – that played in the Bundesliga last season - away from home as solid underdogs on the betting market. It was a 1-1 draw in the end but Hannover had 53% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts (15-7), shots on target, corner kicks (10-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks! They also generated more in xG – 1.34-0.72 to be precise. Before this they faced the very strong St. Pauli at home as clear underdogs and lost 1-2. However, Hannover recorded many more goal attempts (17-9), shots on target (10-5), corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks! They also generated much more in xG – 1.98-0.73 and would have deserved a win!

In round 29 Hannover were, once again, very unlucky – this time on the road against Braunschweig as slim underdogs according to the bookies. No goals were scored but Hannover recorded many more goal attempts (17-9), shots on target. total passes and completed passes. They also generated much more than the hosts in xG – 1.55-0.31 to be precise and would have deserved all three points! Paderborn beat Elversberg 3-1 at home in their last game and deserved to win. They were priced around 1.80 to win on the betting market. The xG numbers were 2.21-1.77. Indeed, the final score flatters Paderborn.. Before this Paderborn defeated Nurnberg 2-0 away from home – priced around 2.25 to win by the bookies. However, the hosts recorded more goal attempts (16-12), shots on target, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks - 70-30! Both teams generated 2.09 in xG and the match could easily have gone either way! The hosts' C. Uzun even missed a penalty kick in the 55th minute. Furthermore, Nurnberg had three goals disallowed after a VAR check.! In round 29 Paderborn faced Karlsruher SC at home as solid favourites on the betting market. It was a 1-1 draw after a balanced and pretty low-level clash where both teams had 50% ball possession and 12 goal attempts.  I was not impressed with Paderborn's performance as the visitors recorded more goal attempts and attacks and also generated more in xG – 2.04-1.44.

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汉诺威96 VS帕德伯恩

汉诺威欢迎帕德博恩参加德国第二届世界杯。北京时间周日晚，德甲第32轮比赛将在海因茨-冯-海登竞技场进行。这是世界上第二好的二级联赛，仅次于英格兰联赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛比平均水平要好。然而，赌博方面，这场比赛是非常有利可图的，我们有很大的机会延长4/5的最后一次选择赢得这个联赛的连胜!我将在明天发布更多的选择。比赛共进行34轮。前两名的球队将在下赛季直接升入德甲。获得第三名的球队将面对一支德甲球队，决定下赛季哪支球队将进入甲级联赛。然而，无论是汉诺威还是帕德博恩都没有机会再进入前三甲了。这意味着球员主要是为球迷而战——当然，有些球员在合同中有基于个人表现的奖金。在这类比赛中，主队平均获胜的机会比博彩公司认为的要大，因为几乎所有的球队都想取悦主队球迷，并感谢他们在漫长的赛季中的支持!此外，汉诺威拥有响亮而热情的球迷——我指的是这个联盟的标准。两支球队的主教练可能会在这里进行一些轮换，但这可能不会影响汉诺威获胜的机会。事实上，相反的情况可能是真的，因为汉诺威的阵容比帕德博恩更有深度!根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的说法，东道主是这里更大的俱乐部。事实上，他们的球员价值估计约为2900万欧元。这在我的专业意见中或多或少是正确的。帕德伯恩的球队价值约1900万美元——这太高了!有三个球员被高估了。汉诺威目前在积分榜上排名第六，客队排名第七。两人都拿到了46分。然而，主机的期望点数(xPTS)显然要高得多——准确地说是47.35。帕德博恩的xPTS仅为41.46。东道主在比赛的各个方面都比客队占优势。他们有53次进球，但他们的期望进球数(xG)为57.53。客队进了49个球。汉诺威的防守比帕德博恩组织得好得多——愚蠢的个人失误更少。汉诺威只丢了39个球，只比荷尔斯泰因基尔(第二名)和杜塞尔多夫(第三名)多两个。客队的防守相当不稳定——他们丢了50个球——比一支目前排名第16位的小球队多丢了4个球!

当然，从顾客那里接受最大赌注的最大博彩公司认为汉诺威在这里是最受欢迎的，他们提供了2.10-2.15的赔率，让帕德博恩空手而归。然而，这绝对还是太高了!我预计帕德博恩的赔率在开球前会上升，因为人们预计聪明的钱会堆积在东道主身上。根据我强有力的基于数据的深度专家分析，东道主有54.50%的机会赢得这场比赛!这两个队最近的状态都很一般。东道主在最近10场比赛中输了2场，帕德博恩在最近10场比赛中输了4场。然而，东道主最近并没有取得多少胜利。看来博彩公司对最新的结果反应过度了，我们必须利用这一点!我们必须认识到汉诺威最近运气不好。在上一场比赛中，他们面对的是柏林赫塔，这是一支在这个级别的强队，上赛季曾参加过德甲联赛，但在投注市场上，他们是绝对的失败者。最后双方1-1战平，但汉诺威有53%的控球率，并且有更多的进球次数(15-7)、射正、角球次数(10-2)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数!他们在xG(1.34-0.72)中也产生了更多。在此之前，他们在主场面对非常强大的圣保利，显然处于劣势，并以1比2输掉了比赛。然而，汉诺威的进球次数(17胜9负)、射正次数(10胜5负)、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多!他们在xG - 1.98-0.73的比赛中也创造了更多的进球，他们应该赢得一场胜利!

在第29轮汉诺威，再一次，非常不幸-这一次是在客场对阵不伦瑞克，根据博彩公司的微弱劣势。虽然没有进球，但汉诺威的进球次数更多(17-9)，射正次数也更多。总传球数和完成传球数。在xG比赛中，他们也比东道主制造了更多的进球——准确地说是1.55-0.31，他们应该得到全部三分!在上一场比赛中，帕德伯恩在主场以3-1击败了埃尔弗斯伯格

他理应获胜。在博彩市场上，他们的价格在1.80左右。xG值为2.21 ~ 1.77。的确，最后的比分让帕德伯恩感到高兴。在此之前，帕德博恩在客场2-0击败纽伦堡，博彩公司的价格在2.25左右。然而，东道主的进球次数(16-12次)、射正次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都比他们多——70比30!两支球队在xG都产生了2.09的进球，比赛很容易就会朝任何一个方向发展!东道主的乌祖恩甚至在第55分钟罚丢了一个点球。此外，纽伦堡在VAR检查后有三个进球被判无效。在第29轮比赛中，帕德伯恩在主场迎战卡尔斯鲁厄，这是博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。双方进行了一场平衡且相当低水平的交锋，双方都有50%的控球率和12次射门机会，最终以1比1战平。我对帕德博恩的表现并不满意，因为客队在xG - 2.04-1.44的进球次数和进攻次数都更多，创造的进球也更多。