Who'll qualify to the AFC CL final?
2024-04-24

Borja

外籍分析师

亚冠

04/24 18:00

已完赛

解读理由:

First game finished 1:0 for Ulsan. I believe that the result was fair: Ulsan dominated the game and had plenty of chances to score more goals, including two shots to the post and one amazing save by Yokohama’s goalkeeper William Popp who was definitely one of the players of the match. However, Yokohama also had one unique and great chance in the 80', but they missed it.

Both teams had the weekend off, meaning both will be just as fresh as each other heading into Wednesday's huge clash.

Yokohama already played against a KL1 team in the group stage - Incheon United. They lost both games against them (home 2:4 and away 2:1), being totally outplayed. And a good fact to test the quality is that Ulsan is a much better team than Incheon. They played a league game in March which finished 3:3 and was totally dominated by Ulsan and deserved the winner.

I believe that Yokohama has been pretty lucky so far in the ACL Champions League. In the group stage they finished with the same points as Shandong and Incheon, but qualified thanks to the goal average. In the ⅛ finals were lucky, beating Bangkok with a late penalty winner at 121’ (in the ET), whilst in ¼ finals played again against Shandong, in two very equal games.

Yokohama has good players such as the formidable Brazilian trio they have upfront: Elber, Yan Matheus and topscorer Anderson Lopes, who are their biggest threat. Wingers Elber and Yan Matheus will look to make counters at speed, while Lopes is one of the most deadly strikers in this tournament having scored in the Round of 16 and both legs of the quarter-finals. He scored 5 goals already in this tournament.

However, their midfield and defense isn’t at the same level. Ulsan dominated the midfield in the first leg, as they have more quality and better players, whilst in defense they conceded pretty much and weren’t able to stop Ulsan’s strikers.

This game could be different for Ulsan, as they had the initiative in the first leg thanks to their home support and motivation. I believe they need to do the same in this fixture, playing like a 0:0 game and not speculate with the advantage they have. They need to attack and control the game, and have players to do that.

Ulsan has a lot of quality upfront, especially with striker Lee Dong Gyeong who is in amazing form in the KLeague 1 and already scored the unique goal in the first leg.

Ulsan also played against a J League team in this tournament - giants Kawasaki Frontale, who are a much better team than Yokohama (although both drew 0:0 in their recent game played 3 weeks ago). Ulsan suffered an unlucky away defeat (1:0 at 90’) and a home draw 2:2, where they deserved to win and dominated the game.

I think that Yokohama will try to dominate this game. In the J1 League this season they are the second team with highest possession (59.2% average), but Ulsan is also the TOP1 in the K League with 56.8% average, so the midfield battle to control the ball will be the key of this game.

Ulsan will have to be ready to face a lot of shots or at least look to prevent Yokohama from dispatching any. In the ACL this season, the J1 outfit are top for total shots with 191 and second per 90 with 15.0 average. Ulsan will have to defend well in Japan, but I believe so as they have conceded just two goals in five knockout round games. They are a very strong and well organized team in defense.

I expect a tight game here, where Yokohama will leave spaces and Ulsan can kill them with counters. Ulsan has a defense strong enough to hold the result and pressure, and wait patiently for their chance. After seeing the performances from both teams so far in the tournament, as well as the first leg game, I think Ulsan is the favorite to qualify here.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

第一场比赛,蔚山队以1:0结束。我相信结果是公平的:蔚山队占据了比赛的主导地位,并且有很多机会取得更多的进球,其中包括两脚射门,横滨队的门将威廉·波普(William Popp)的一次精彩扑救,他绝对是本场比赛的最佳球员之一。然而,横滨也有一个独特的和伟大的机会在80年代,但他们错过了它。

两支球队都在周末休息,这意味着两支球队都将在周三的比赛中保持同样的新鲜感。

横滨队已经在小组赛中与KL1球队仁川联队交手。他们输掉了两场比赛(主场2:4,客场2:1),完全被打败了。蔚山队是一支比仁川队强得多的球队,这是检验质量的一个很好的事实。他们在3月份的联赛中以3:3结束比赛,完全被蔚山队控制,应该获胜。

我相信到目前为止横滨在欧洲冠军联赛中是相当幸运的。在小组赛中,他们以与山东和仁川相同的积分出线,但凭借平均进球数出线。在决赛中,我们很幸运,在最后时刻以121分的比分击败了曼谷队,而在决赛中又与山东队进行了两场势均力敌的比赛。

横滨拥有优秀的球员,比如他们锋线上的强大巴西三人组:埃尔伯、扬·马修斯和头号射手安德森·洛佩斯,他们是他们最大的威胁。边锋埃尔伯和扬·马修斯将寻求快速反击,而洛佩斯是本届杯赛中最致命的前锋之一,他在16强和四分之一决赛的两回合都有进球。他在这次比赛中已经进了5个球。

然而,他们的中场和防守并不在同一水平。第一回合,蔚山队在中场占据了主导地位,因为他们有更多的球员和更好的球员,而在防守方面,他们丢了很多球,无法阻止蔚山队的前锋。

这场比赛对于蔚山来说可能会有所不同,因为他们在主场的支持和动力下在首回合占据了主动权。我相信他们在这场比赛中也需要这样做,打得像一场0:0的比赛,而不是用他们的优势来猜测。他们需要进攻和控制比赛,并让球员做到这一点。

蔚山队在前场有很多优秀的球员,尤其是在k联赛中状态惊人的前锋李东敬,他已经在首回合打进了独一无二的进球。

在本次比赛中,蔚山还对阵了一支J联赛球队——比横滨强得多的豪门川崎前锋(尽管两队在三周前的比赛中都是0:0打平)。在比赛中,蔚山队在客场1比0不敌对手,主场2比2战平,但他们理应取得胜利,并占据了主导地位。

我认为横滨会试图统治这场比赛。在本赛季的J1联赛中,他们的控球率排在第2位(平均控球率59.2%),但蔚山队的控球率也排在K联赛的第1位(平均控球率56.8%),因此,中场的控球大战将成为本场比赛的关键。

蔚山将不得不准备好面对大量的射击,或者至少要防止横滨发射任何子弹。在本赛季的ACL比赛中,J1队以191次射门排名第一,平均90次射门15.0次排名第二。蔚山队必须在日本的比赛中做好防守,但我相信他们在淘汰赛的五场比赛中只丢了两个球。他们在防守方面是一支非常强大且组织良好的球队。

我预计这将是一场激烈的比赛,横滨会留下空间,蔚山可以用反击杀死他们。蔚山队有足够强大的防守来保持结果和压力,并耐心等待他们的机会。在看了两队目前的表现以及首回合比赛后,我认为蔚山队是出线的热门球队。

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