V-Varen Nagasaki VS Jubilo Iwata

V-Varen Nagasaki welcome Jubilo Iwata for this YBC Levain Cup round 1 battle at Transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki Wednesday evening Beijing time. Teams from the three highest tiers play in this competition – J1, J2 and J3 Leagues that is to be precise. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of pretty quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly my fans and I have yet another interesting betting opportunity here! I want to highlight that there is a substantial difference in quality between the J1 and J2 Leagues! V-Varen Nagasaki play in the J2 League. They have started the season better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. They currently occupy the 2nd place in the standings. They have grabbed a fine 21 points after ten games. However, as a result,  they have become too hot on the betting market and we must oppose them here. The biggest bookies see them as favourites here – offering them odds of around 2.40 to win during the 90 minutes of play. I disagree – Iwata deserve to be the favourites and we will take them with the +0.5 goals handicap option in an attempt to take the 4th winner in a row! V-Varen's number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 17.11. They have scored 22 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is 16.99. I have been surprised by the effectiveness of their offense so far. Their offensive structure has also been good. However, many of their offensive players have played above their normal level so far this season. Let's not forget that last season they finished only in 7th place. Furthermore, their defence has not been solid – they have played pretty aggressive and offensive football in most games though which - in part – explains the number of goals scored and conceded. Even so, even Mito, currently in 17th place, have allowed less goals! V-Varen scored six of the 21 goals in their last game against Tokushima at home. Indeed, they won 6-1 as clear favourites – priced around 1.75 to win by the bookies. Yes, they deserved to win, of course, but Tokushima were a mess defensively in this game. I will not give this clear win to much emphasis. The final score is, indeed, very misleading and seems to affect the odds too much here.. The hosts recorded 17 goal attempts, Tokushima managed 10 and could easily have scored more goals! The visitors even recorded more attacks than V-Varen - 85-73 to be precise. Before this V-Varen beat Kumamoto away from home 4-3 in an entertaining but relatively low-level clash. V-Varen were priced around 2.20 to win the game. The hosts had 58% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (16-11), shots off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks - 72-33. They could easily have won the game!

Iwata have much more quality in their squad than V-Varen. They have started the season better than the bookies probably estimated before the season kicked off.. Indeed, they are in 13th place in the J1 League table. They have taken nine points so far. However, Iwata's number of xPTS is somewhat higher. I want to mention that they can still improve in all areas of the game as the season progresses! They have netted the ball 11 and have conceded 11 goals and number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is a little smaller than 11. Let's keep in mind that V-Varen have won just one of the last seven games between the two teams. The teams last locked horns last October and Iwata took a deserved 1-0 win at home. Iwata have won two of their last games but did lose their most recent match though. It was a home game against Nagoya Grampus who escaped with a 1-0 win. Iwata had 61% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (13-7), shots off goal (12-5), total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks - 47-31. The xG numbers were 0.77-0.52. Before this they crushed Kyoto 3-0 on the road as solid underdogs – priced around 3.30 to win on the betting market. This was yet another example of them being undervalued by the bookies! On the third of this month they deservedly defeated Albirex Niigata at home. Yes, they had only 41% ball possession but defended very well. They even recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks as well as dangerous attacks. They also generated much more in xG. I liked the well-organized and mature way they performed on the pitch in this match!

GOOD LUCK!

长崎V-Varen VS岩田裕郎

北京时间周三晚上，长崎V-Varen长崎将在长崎Transcosmos体育场欢迎岩田永雄参加YBC列文杯第一轮比赛。来自三个最高级别的球队参加这个比赛——准确地说，是J1、J2和J3联赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场按照联赛标准相当高质量的比赛。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝在这里又有了一个有趣的投注机会!我想强调的是，J1和J2联赛在质量上有很大的不同!V-Varen Nagasaki在J2联赛打球。他们这个赛季的开局比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。他们目前在积分榜上排名第二。十场比赛后，他们得到了整整21分。然而，结果，他们在博彩市场上变得太热了，我们必须在这里反对他们。最大的博彩公司认为他们是最受欢迎的，在90分钟的比赛中，他们的赔率约为2.40。我不同意——岩田聪应该是最受欢迎的，我们将用+0.5的进球障碍选项来选择他们，试图连续第四次夺冠!V-Varen的期望值(xPTS)“仅”为17.11。他们打进了22球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)是16.99。到目前为止，我对他们进攻的效率感到惊讶。他们的进攻结构也很好。然而，本赛季到目前为止，他们的许多进攻球员都超出了正常水平。别忘了上个赛季他们只排在第七位。此外，他们的防守并不稳固——他们在大多数比赛中都踢得很有侵略性和进攻性，尽管这在一定程度上解释了进球和失球的数量。即便如此，就连目前排名第17位的水户也丢了更少的球!在上一场主场对阵德岛的比赛中，varen打进了21个进球中的6个。事实上，他们以6比1获胜，成为明显的夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的胜率约为1.75。是的，他们当然应该赢，但是德岛队在这场比赛中的防守一团糟。我不会过分强调这一明显的胜利。最终的比分确实非常具有误导性，似乎对胜率的影响太大了。东道主有17次进球尝试，德岛进了10次，而且很容易进更多的球!访客甚至比V-Varen - 85-73记录了更多的攻击。在此之前，V-Varen在客场4-3击败熊本，这是一场有趣但相对低级的比赛。为了赢得比赛，V-Varen的价格在2.20左右。东道主的控球率为58%，进球次数(16-11次)、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数、尤其是危险进攻次数(72-33)也更多。他们本可以轻松赢得这场比赛的!

岩田的阵容比varen强多了。他们本赛季的开局比博彩公司在赛季开始前估计的要好。事实上，他们在J1联赛中排名第13位。到目前为止，他们已经得了9分。然而，岩田聪的xPTS数量要高一些。我想说的是，随着赛季的进展，他们仍然可以在比赛的各个方面有所提高!他们打进了11个球，丢了11个球，预期失球数(xGA)略小于11个。让我们记住，V-Varen在两队之间的最近七场比赛中只赢了一场。两队上一次交锋是在去年10月，岩田聪在主场以1-0的比分赢得了当之无愧的胜利。岩田在上一场比赛中赢了两场，但在最近一场比赛中输了。这是一场主场对阵名古屋格兰普斯的比赛，后者以1-0获胜。岩田有61%的控球率，并记录了更多的进球次数(13-7)，射门次数(12-5)，总传球次数，完成传球次数，攻击次数，尤其是危险攻击次数(47-31)。xG值为0.77 ~ 0.52。在此之前，他们在客场3-0大胜京都，在博彩市场上，他们的胜率在3.30左右。这是他们被博彩公司低估的又一个例子!本月3日，他们在主场击败了新潟，实为当之无愧。是的，他们只有41%的控球率，但防守很好。他们甚至记录了更多的进球尝试、射正、射偏、角球以及危险的进攻。他们在xG中也产生了更多。我喜欢他们在这场比赛中组织良好和成熟的表现!

好运！