HJK Helsinki vs FC Lahti

HJK is the biggest club here in Finland and are always the number one favorites to lift the trophy. In recent years they have disappointed themselves and their fans a few times not winning the Finnish Veikkausliiga. Last year they won pretty comfortably at the end. They lost a few key players after last season. Nikolai Alho left the team to play in Budapest Hungary. Another important player HJK lost after last season is Rasmus Schüller who went to play in Sweden. Let's take a quick look to why this in relevant in betting. Both of these high-quality players also play in the Finnish national team. However, overall HJK have even an even better team than last season as several very skilled players have joined the team - Luís Henrique from the local rivals HIFK Helsinki and Swiss Joel Untersee who most definitely has potential to play in a lot bigger clubs in 2-3 years. I believe the betting market overempahasizes the effect of losing Alho and Schüller, perhaps because of their national team status. However, despite qualifying for the UEFA European Championship tournament this year Finland is not a big football country by European standards and this is the first time Finland made it to the Euro tournament. Add the fact that neither Alho nor Schüller are really key players in the Finnish national team HJK can do well without them and most likely win the league.

In my opinion and by my advanced statistics HJK have started the season as well as expected. They did lose to KUPS Kuopio in the Finnish Cup in penalties but let's bear in mind KUPS, the champions in 2019 are HJK's main rival this season and with a lot of money behind them are a quality team and seem to be under-valued by the Finnish media and by the betting market. The media and betting market seem to expect nothing but wins from HJK and any losses or points lost are considered a failure. This of course is not realistic and personally I rate KUPS as clearly the second best in the Finnish League. HJK have now started their second full season under a promising head coach Toni Koskela. Coaches often achieve their best result in their second season and it really seems HJK have improved their play all the time under Koskela. The pitches here in Finland are not in great shape yet but HJK have played on an artificial pitch which allows the more skilled hosts to play fast, aggressive football with precise passing for years. This is history of course just "piece of history" but let's remember HJK have even beaten big European clubs like Schalke, FC Copenhagen and Torino at their home Arena here in downtown Helsinki. No spectators will be allowed in this match but there will be a pretty big number of hardcore home fans watching the match on a nearby cliff from where some 85% of the pitch is visible. Some loud fans will also be supporting their team just outside the Bolt Arena behind the gate. Players can hear the fans easily so there is home advantage in this match - artificial turf HJK is comfortable with and the fans just mentioned.

A few days ago HJK crushed Ilves in Tampere 3-0 and could have scored even more goals. A rock-solid performance. In my power ratings Lahti is pretty much on the same level as Ilves. In their latest match Lahti lost to KUPS 2-4 and looked very vulnerable in defense. They will have to improve a lot to stand a chance versus HJK today. Lahti did beat the third best team in the league on the 3th of May but were very lucky and really should not have earned more than maximum one point in terms of expected goals and ball possession. This win clearly affects the odds here too much offering pretty rare situation in this league of placing a value bet on a heavy favorite. To sum up there is indeed a big difference in raw class here. Let's take advantage of the big odds on HJK winning by at least two goals difference. The chance they will is some 50%.

赫尔辛基是芬兰最大的俱乐部，并且一直是夺冠的第一热门。近年来，他们几次令自己和球迷失望，却没有赢得芬兰维凯库斯利加（Veikkausliiga）的冠军。去年他们最终获得了相当不错的胜利。上赛季之后，他们失去了一些关键球员。尼古拉·阿里奥（Nikolai Alho）离开球队前往匈牙利布达佩斯。上个赛季之后，HJK失去的另一个重要球员是去瑞典踢球的拉斯穆斯·舒勒（RasmusSchüller）。让我们快速看一下为什么这与下注相关。这两位高素质的球员也都参加了芬兰国家队。但是，由于几名非常熟练的球员加入了球队，因此HJK的整体团队甚至比上赛季还要好-来自本地竞争对手HIFK赫尔辛基和瑞士人Joel Untersee的LuísHenrique绝对有潜力在2号更大的俱乐部打球3年。我认为博彩市场过分夸大了输掉Alho和Schüller的影响，也许是因为他们的国民团队地位。但是，尽管今年获得了欧洲联盟锦标赛的参赛资格，但按照欧洲标准来说，芬兰并不是一个大足球国家，这是芬兰首次进入欧洲锦标赛。再加上事实，阿尔霍（Alho）和舒勒（Schüller）都不是芬兰国家队HJK的真正关键球员，没有他们，他们会做得很好，而且很可能会赢得联赛冠军。

在我看来，根据我的高级统计，赫尔辛基已经开始了本赛季的比赛，并取得了预期的成绩。他们确实在点球大战中输给了KUPS Kuopio，但让我们记住的是KUPS，2019年的冠军是本赛季HJK的主要竞争对手，身后还有很多钱，他们是一支高素质的球队，并且似乎被低估了。芬兰媒体和博彩市场。媒体和博彩市场似乎只希望获得HJK的胜利，任何损失或积分都被视为失败。这当然是不现实的，我个人认为KUPS显然是芬兰联赛中的第二好。 HJK现在有在有希望的主教练托尼·科斯凯拉（Toni Koskela）的带领下开始了他们的第二个完整赛季。教练常常在第二个赛季中就取得最好的成绩，而且在J. K. Skela的带领下，HJK的表现似乎一直都在提高。芬兰这里的球场状况还不算很好，但是HJK一直在人工球场上进行比赛，这使得技术娴熟的东道主能够以精确的传球速度踢出快速，富于攻击性的足球。这当然只是历史的“历史”，但让我们记住，HJK甚至在赫尔辛基市中心的主场Arena击败了沙尔克（Schalke），哥本哈根足球俱乐部（FC Copenhagen）和都灵（Torino）等大型欧洲俱乐部。这场比赛不允许观众参加，但是将会有大量铁杆主场球迷在附近的悬崖上观看比赛，从附近的悬崖上可以看到球场的85％的风景。一些大声球迷还将在大门后面的博尔特体育馆外为他们的球队提供支持。玩家可以轻松听到球迷的声音，因此本场比赛有主场优势-人造草坪赫尔辛基和刚才提到的粉丝们很舒服。

几天前，赫尔辛基在坦佩雷3-0击败了Ilves，并且本可以打进更多进球。坚如磐石的表演。在我的功率等级中，拉赫蒂与伊尔维斯几乎处于同一水平。在最近的比赛中，拉赫蒂（Lahti）输给了KUPS 2-4，看上去在防守端非常脆弱。与赫尔辛基相比，他们必须提高很多才能有机会。拉赫蒂确实在5月3日击败了联盟中排名第三的最好球队，但是非常幸运，而且就预期进球数和控球率而言，他的收入不应超过最高分。这场胜利显然会影响赔率，在这个联盟中，将赌注押在沉重的最爱上，这提供了非常罕见的情况。总结起来，两队实力确实有很大的不同。我选择赫尔辛基净胜2球胜。他们将有大约50％的机会。