Bayer Leverkusen VS West Ham United

Bayern Leverkusen and West Ham lock horns in this UEFA Europa League quarter-finals 1st leg battle at BayArena early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest of UEFA's club competitions, after the iconic Champions League, of course. The hosts are a German team – West Ham come from England.  We can expect a match of very high level by this league's standards here! The stakes are high between these quite big teams here.. Not every major team prioritize this in the group stage – and rotates the squad - but at this phase of Europa League all teams usually are usually fully motivated! This is definitely the case here as none of the two teams are among the very best European teams and have not won that many trophies in UEFA's competitions in the past.. The winner of the Europa will earn a place in the Champions League group stage for the next season. West Ham are not among the top-2 favourites - Liverpool and Bayern Leverkusen are -  but the English team still have a genuine chance to lift the trophy! Mathematically West Ham still have a chance to finish in top-4 or top-5 in the Premier League - earning a place in the Champions League for the 2024-2025 season. At the time of writing this preview it is still not clear if the top-4 or top-5 teams from the Premier League will qualify directly.. This will be decided based on " UEFA points" during the rest of the season. Realistically West Ham's chances for a top-5 position is very low. Indeed, they are in 7th place with 48 points to their account. Aston Villa, currently in 5th place, have grabbed 60 points. West Ham have six more matches left to play in the Premier League. Once again I need to highlight that the Premier League is clearly the best league on the planet! The Bundesliga, on the other hand, is the 3rd-best. West Ham have been in pretty good form recently, losing only two of their last nine matches. Furthermore, they have not lost any of their last nine games by a margin of more than one goal! In their last game they defeated a dangerous team, Wolves, who are currently in 11th place, 2-1 away from home. Before this they faced  a very strong opponent, Tottenham, who are currently in 4th place, at home as clear underdogs and it was a 1-1 draw at home after a somewhat balanced battle. The visitors had 67.70 % ball possession but West Ham recorded a little more in expected goals (xG) - 1.55-1.23 to be precise. I liked West Ham's performance - especially the organized way they defended!

Bayer Leverkusen currently top the Bundesliga standings with 76 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 62.34. They have netted the ball 69 times and their number of xG is 64.32 and have allowed 19 goals. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 28.54. They have been "the hot topic" of the season worldwide as they have not lost a single match this season. They have been strong but have also had luck on their side in many games. Many of their players have improved a lot this season but some have also played clearly above their normal level.. They have an over 99.90 % chance of winning the Bundesliga and they have already secured a place in the Champions League next season. They will surely want to win this competition but West Ham might well be a little more "desperately motivated" here. Leverkusen have, rather unsurprisingly, become way too hot on the betting market. They are unlikely to lose this game but the odds of around 1.40 are still too low based on my strongly data-based expert analysis. We will go for the West Ham +1.5 goals handicap option with a strong 63.50% chance of extending the strong streak of 6/7 last picks won! Odds of around 1.75 are widely available with the biggest bookmakers at the time of posting. Leverkusen have won all of their last five games but only 1/5 by a margin of more than one goal. This win came against Dusseldorf in a DFB Pokal (German Cup) battle 4-0 Yes, Leverkusen were the better team but the final score still flatters them.. Indeed, Leverkusen had seven shots on goal, Dusseldorf managed four. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.78-0.77.  Dusseldorf play in the 2. Bundesliga and according to the bookies Leverkusen were gigantic favourites in this match.

I want to highlight that Leverkusen's opponent in all of their last five games was worse than West Ham! According to a well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com, Leverkusen are the bigger team here – but not by a very clear margin.. Indeed, their squad has an estimated market value of around 600 million euros. The West squad, on the other hand, is valued at about 450 million. I expect West Ham to be defensive in this game and hope they can get the job done in London next week.. I trust their coach in terms of organized a solid defence here. As a result, the goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies estimate. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 48.50%. In the last round West Ham lost to Freiburg in the 1st leg in Germany despite playing okay as a whole but crushed the visitors 5-0 at home. Let's remember that Freiburg are in 9th place in the Bundesliga and are not a bad team at all! Leverkusen, of course, are stronger though.. Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 1-0 on the road in their last game as very clear favourites on the betting market. I need to mention that Union Berlin have been a big disappointment this season! Their player R. Gosens was sent off in the 45+3 minute when the score was still 0-0. Leverkusen deserved to win but did not fully convince me - especially offensively as they lacked some speed and creativity.. In the previous round of Europa League Leverkusen were, very surprisingly, very close to being beaten by Qarabag, a very small team for this level! Their squad's estimated market value is only about 14.70 million! The first leg in Azerbaijan was a 2-2 draw and Qarabag took a 2-0 lead in the second leg in the 67th minute. Their player Cafarquliyev was sent off in the 62nd minute. without the red card Qarabag would have had a strong chance of qualifying! Leverkusen's star striker P. Schick scored two goals (!) in injury time – Leverkusen consequently qualified 5-4 on aggregate. I want to mention that In the Europa League Leverkusen have not been as strong as in the Bundesliga so far this season.. The hosts will be missing Arthur, Hlosek and Tella. West Ham will travel to Germany without Alvarez, Areola and Bowen. Missing Bowen hurts them a lot but the betting market still seems to give his absence too much emphasis here..

GOOD LUCK!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

勒沃库森VS西汉姆联

北京时间周五凌晨，拜仁勒沃库森和西汉姆联将在拜仁球馆展开欧联杯1 / 4决赛首回合的激战。这是欧足联第二高的俱乐部赛事，当然仅次于标志性的欧洲冠军联赛。东道主是一支德国球队——西汉姆联队来自英格兰。按照这个联赛的标准，我们可以期待一场高水平的比赛!这两支大球队之间的赌注很高。并不是所有的豪门球队都在小组赛中优先考虑这一点，并且轮换阵容，但在欧联杯的这个阶段，所有的球队通常都是充满动力的!这绝对是事实，因为这两支球队都不是欧洲最好的球队，而且在过去的欧足联比赛中也没有赢得那么多奖杯。欧罗巴杯的冠军将获得下赛季欧洲冠军联赛小组赛的席位。西汉姆联并不在夺冠热门的前二之列，利物浦和勒沃库森则在其中，但这支英格兰球队仍然有机会捧起奖杯!从数学上讲，西汉姆联仍然有机会进入英超前四或前五，从而在2024-2025赛季获得欧冠席位。在写这篇预告的时候，还不清楚英超前四或前五的球队是否会直接晋级。这将在本赛季剩下的时间里根据“欧足联积分”来决定。实际上，西汉姆进入前五的机会非常低。事实上，他们以48分排名第七。目前排名第五的阿斯顿维拉已经拿到了60分。西汉姆联在英超还有六场比赛要打。我需要再一次强调，英超显然是这个星球上最好的联赛!另一方面，德甲排名第三。西汉姆最近状态不错，最近9场比赛只输了2场。此外，他们在最近的9场比赛中没有输过一球以上的比赛!在上一场比赛中，他们客场2-1击败了目前排名第11位的危险球队狼队。在此之前，他们在主场遇到了一个非常强大的对手，托特纳姆热刺，目前排名第4，显然处于劣势，经过一场平衡的战斗，他们在主场以1比1战平。客队有67.70%的控球率，但西汉姆联队的预期进球(xG)略高——准确地说是1.55比1.23。我喜欢西汉姆的表现，尤其是他们防守的组织性。

勒沃库森目前以76分位居德甲积分榜榜首。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)“只有”62.34。本场比赛共打进69球，射门次数为64.32次，失19球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xGA)是28.54。由于他们本赛季没有输过一场比赛，他们成为了本赛季世界范围内的“热门话题”。他们很强大，但在很多比赛中运气也很好。他们的很多球员本赛季都有了很大的进步，但也有一些球员的发挥明显超出了他们的正常水平。他们有超过99.90%的机会赢得德甲冠军，他们已经确保了下赛季欧冠的席位。他们当然想赢得这场比赛，但西汉姆在这里可能更有“绝望的动力”。毫无疑问，勒沃库森在博彩市场上变得太热了。他们不太可能输掉这场比赛，但根据我基于数据的专家分析，1.40左右的赔率仍然太低。我们会选择西汉姆+1.5个进球障碍的选项，有63.50%的机会延续6胜7负的强劲势头!在发布时，最大的博彩公司广泛提供1.75左右的赔率。勒沃库森最近五场比赛全部获胜，但只有1/5的优势超过一个球。这场胜利是在德国杯4-0对阵杜塞尔多夫的比赛中取得的，是的，勒沃库森是一支更好的球队，但最后的比分仍然让他们感到高兴。事实上，勒沃库森有7次射正，杜塞尔多夫有4次射正。预期目标(xG)值为2.78-0.77。杜塞尔多夫队在2。根据博彩公司的说法，德甲和勒沃库森是这场比赛的最大热门。

我想强调的是，勒沃库森最近五场比赛的对手都比西汉姆联差!根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，勒沃库森在这里是一支更大的球队，但差距并不明显。事实上，这支球队的市场价值估计在6亿欧元左右。另一方面，西部球队的价值约为4.5亿英镑。我希望西汉姆联能够防守

在这场比赛中，希望他们能在下周的伦敦完成这项工作。我相信他们的教练组织了坚实的防守。因此，这里的进球预期低于博彩公司的估计。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为48.50%。在上一轮的德国联赛中，西汉姆在首回合输给了弗赖堡，尽管他们整体表现还不错，但在主场却以5比0击败了客队。让我们记住弗赖堡在德甲排名第9，并不是一支糟糕的球队!当然，勒沃库森更强。勒沃库森在上一场比赛中客场1-0击败柏林联盟，成为博彩市场上非常明显的热门球队。我需要提到的是，这个赛季柏林联盟队非常令人失望!他们的球员R. Gosens在45+3分钟时被罚下，当时比分还是0-0。勒沃库森理应获胜，但他们并没有完全说服我——尤其是在进攻端，他们缺乏速度和创造力。在上一轮的欧联杯中，勒沃库森，非常令人惊讶，非常接近被卡拉巴格击败，这是一支在这个级别上非常小的球队!他们球队的市场价值估计只有1470万美元!在与阿塞拜疆的首回合比赛中，双方2-2战平，卡拉巴格队在第67分钟以2-0领先。他们的球员卡法奎里耶夫在第62分钟被罚下。如果没有这张红牌，卡拉巴格将有很大的机会出线!勒沃库森的明星前锋希克在伤停补时阶段连进两球，勒沃库森最终以5-4的总比分出线。我想说的是，在欧洲联赛中，勒沃库森本赛季到目前为止还没有德甲那么强大。东道主会错过亚瑟，荷塞克和泰拉。西汉姆联将在没有阿尔瓦雷斯、阿雷奥拉和鲍文的情况下前往德国。鲍文的缺席对他们的伤害很大，但是赌博市场似乎仍然过于强调他的缺席。

好运！