Belgrano VS Lanus

Belgrano host Lanus for this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional round 11 battle at Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra in Cordoba Thursday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is quite high by global standards – but the top-4 European Leagues are still much better. The differences in pure class between the top and bottom teams are substantial.. My fans and I can expect a match of better than average quality by this league's standards here. Both Groups A and B have a total of 14 clubs. Lanus currently occupy the 2nd place in the Group B standings with 23 points in their pocket but their number of expected points (xPTS) is significantly lower! They have netted the ball 16 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is much smaller. They do however, have decent firepower – mainly thanks to a pretty good offensive structure. They have allowed only three goals but this number is very misleading! Indeed, their number of expected goals (xGA) is 10.23! Even so, I have been positively surprised by their level of defending so far. Silly individual mistakes have been very few. However, many of their defenders have played above their normal level so far this season. This most probably cannot go on forever! I want to highlight that last season, which came to an end last December, Lanus finished in last place in this group with only 14 points to their account. Belgrano, on the other hand, ended up in third place with an impressive 21 points in their pocket. They made it to the Playoffs but lost to the biggest team, River Plate, 1-2 as big underdogs on the betting market.

Belgrano have had a disappointing start to the season – especially results-wise. The bookies seem to have overreacted to their struggles. Indeed, most of the biggest bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see Lanus as narrow favourites here – offering odds of around 2.60 on the away win. With the expected lineups, based on my sophisticated expert analysis, the hosts deserve to be the favourites. We will take the +0.5 goals handicap option. The hosts occupy the 13th place with eight points to their account but their number of xPTS is 14.11. Their offense has worked pretty well and have scored 13 goals. Their defensive structure has been far from optimal and they have conceded 14 goals. Their number of xGA is, however, much lower! They can improve in all areas of the game. They have not the best but still good home fans. I expect them to play active football here! In terms of players' estimated total market value Belgrano are the bigger team here - according to Transfermarkt.com. Indeed, their squad is valued at about 43 million euros. The Lanus squad is valued at about 36 million which is too high in my opinion. Lanus have won two of their last five games. In their last game they lost to El Porvinir at a neutral location. It was a cup game and Lanus were priced below 1.20 by the bookies to win in 90 minutes of play! A very disappointing performance from Lanus as a whole. El Porvinir play in Primera C Apertura and are a very small team! Before this Lanus beat Tigre 3-2 away from home but as clear favourites but the match was a pretty balanced one. Belgrano have lost just one of their last six games but have played too many draws - four of these six games. In their last game they faced Central Cordoba away from home and it was a 2-2 draw. Belgrano generated much more in xG – 2.21-1.04. Before this they played another draw – this time at home against Defensa Y Justicia 1-1. The hosts recorded more goal attempts, shot on goal, corner kicks, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 102-38! The xG numbers were 1.98-1.03.

贝尔格拉诺VS拉纳斯

北京时间周四上午，贝尔格拉诺将在科尔多瓦的比利亚格拉球场迎战阿根廷队拉努斯。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平是相当高的，但欧洲四大联赛仍然要好得多。顶级球队和底层球队之间的纯粹阶级差异是巨大的。我和我的球迷可以期待一场比这个联盟的平均水平更好的比赛。A组和B组各有14家俱乐部。拉努斯目前以23分的成绩排在B组第二，但他们的预期积分(xPTS)要低得多!他们有16次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)要少得多。然而，他们确实有不错的火力——主要是由于一个相当好的进攻结构。他们只丢了三个球，但是这个数字很容易误导人!事实上，他们的预期进球数(xGA)是10.23!即便如此，我还是对他们目前的防守水平感到非常惊讶。愚蠢的个人错误已经很少了。然而，本赛季到目前为止，他们的许多后卫的表现都超出了正常水平。这种情况很可能不会永远持续下去!我想强调的是，在去年12月结束的上个赛季，拉努斯仅以14分的成绩排在小组最后。另一方面，贝尔格拉诺以令人印象深刻的21分排名第三。他们进入了季后赛，但在博彩市场上以1比2的比分输给了最大的球队河床队。

贝尔格拉诺本赛季有一个令人失望的开始——尤其是在结果方面。博彩公司似乎对他们的挣扎反应过度了。事实上，大多数接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司都认为拉努斯在这里的胜算不大——客场获胜的赔率约为2.60。根据我老练的专家分析，根据预期的阵容，东道主理应成为夺冠热门。我们将采用+0.5个目标障碍选项。东道主以8分的成绩排在第13位，但他们的xPTS数量为14.11。他们的进攻很有效，进了13个球。他们的防守结构远非最佳，他们已经丢了14个球。然而，他们的xGA数量要低得多!他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高。他们的主场球迷不是最好的，但仍然很好。我希望他们在这里积极地踢足球!根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，就球员的总市场价值而言，贝尔格拉诺是这里最大的球队。事实上，他们的球队价值约为4300万欧元。拉努斯队的价值约为3600万美元，在我看来这太高了。拉努斯在最近五场比赛中赢了两场。在上一场比赛中，他们在一个中立地点输给了El Porvinir。这是一场杯赛，而拉努斯在90分钟的比赛中获胜的赌注低于1.20 !拉努斯的整体表现非常令人失望。El Porvinir在西甲踢球，是一支非常小的球队!在此之前，拉努斯在客场3-2击败了老虎队，虽然他们显然是夺冠热门，但这场比赛是一场相当平衡的比赛。贝尔格拉诺在过去的六场比赛中只输了一场，但他们打了太多的平局——这六场比赛中有四场。在上一场比赛中，他们客场对阵中央科尔多瓦，双方以2比2战平。贝尔格拉诺在xG - 2.21-1.04中产生了更多。在此之前，他们又打了一场平局——这次是在主场1-1对阵贾斯蒂西亚防守队。东道主的进球次数、射正次数、角球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险进攻次数都更多——102比38!xG值为1.98 ~ 1.03。