Sporting CP VS Boavista FC

Sporting CP host Boavista at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon in this Liga Portugal round 26 clash early Monday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is pretty high by European standards. However, the differences in pure class between the top and bottom teams are huge.. Sporting, Porto and Benfica are clearly the best teams. Braga are the 4th-best and are significantly better than the rest of the teams in this league with a total of 18 clubs. My fans and I can expect a match of pretty good quality by this league's standards here. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the much stronger team here. They have an edge over Boavista in all areas of the game. The relevant question for a professional bettor here is: How much better are they.. Sporting top the league table with 62 points in their pocket but their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 57.11. They are not better than Porto (58 points) or Benfica (61 points) in terms of pure class. They do have a strong offense with many skilled players. They have netted the ball 69 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is much lower. Their defence is strong but not by any means unbreakable.. Sporting have allowed 24 goals – many more than Porto and Benfica. Boavista can hurt them with fast counter-attacks! Boavista will surely defend hard here and are not likely to change their tactic a lot even if they end up trailing.. The odds of around 1.15 offered on the home win by the biggest bookmakers are way too low here. We will take the Boavista +2.5 goals handicap option here with an excellent 68% chance of winning - once again! Odds of around 1.60 are widely available! I trust their Boavista's coach in terms of defensive tactics here! The goal expectancy is lower than the bookies estimate. The probability of under 3.5 goals to be scored is 65%. 

I want to highlight that Boavista are definitely not a bad team at all. They are in 10th place with a respectable 28 points to their account. They have scored 32 goals and have allowed 45 goals but can improve in all areas of the game. They have conceded 45 goals but their number of expected goals allowed is "only" 39.78. We must remember Sporting lost to Atalanta 1-2 in the UEFA Europa League 2nd leg in Italy on Thursday. This must be a massive disappointment for them as the bookies saw Atalanta only as narrow favourites to qualify.. Europa League is the second-best of UEFA's club competitions. The winner earns a ticket for the Champions League for the next season. The first leg was in Portugal 1-1 draw. Atalanta were slightly the better team at home and deserved to qualify! Based on my 23 years of professional football betting it is often difficult even for the top-teams to be 100% mentally and physically ready for a domestic league match, especially against a lowly opponent – almost immediately after a big international game – especially if the game was a defeat.. Boavista have also had a week to prepare for this match so they are much better rested for sure.. Having just two full days between is far from optimal in professional football. They also had to fly home from Portugal which is worse than if they game was played in Lisbon. Before losing to Atalanta Sporting beat Arouca 3-0 on the road but the final score is very misleading! Arouca, a pretty small team, had 59% ball possession! Both teams recorded 10 goal attempts but the hosts, the huge underdogs in this match, had many more attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 0.67-1.43. Boavista beat Moreirense in their last game 1-0 at home and played well! They were priced around 3.50 to win by the bookies but generated more in xG and deserved to win. This is yet another example of the bookies underestimating Boavista!

体育CP VS博阿维斯塔FC

北京时间周一凌晨，在里斯本举行的第26轮葡甲联赛中，葡萄牙体育CP主场迎战博阿维斯塔Estádio。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是相当高的。然而，顶级和低端球队之间的纯粹等级差异是巨大的。竞技、波尔图和本菲卡显然是最好的球队。布拉加排名第四，比联赛中其他18支球队要好得多。我和我的球迷可以期待一场以这个联盟的标准来看质量相当不错的比赛。当然，毫无疑问，东道主在这里的实力要强大得多。他们在比赛的各个方面都比博阿维斯塔有优势。对于一个专业的投注者来说，相关的问题是:他们有多好……竞技以62分高居榜首，但他们的预期积分(xPTS)“只有”57.11分。他们并不比波尔图(58分)和本菲卡(61分)强。他们的进攻很强大，有很多技术娴熟的球员。他们有69次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)要低得多。他们的防御很强大，但绝非牢不可破。竞技丢了24个球，比波尔图和本菲卡多很多。博阿维斯塔可以用快速反击伤害他们!博阿维斯塔肯定会在这里努力防守，即使他们最终落后，也不太可能改变他们的战术。最大的博彩公司在主场获胜的赔率约为1.15，这在这里太低了。我们将在这里选择博阿维斯塔+2.5个进球障碍选项，有68%的绝佳机会获胜-再一次!大约1.60的赔率是广泛存在的!就防守战术而言，我相信他们的教练博阿维斯塔!预期进球比博彩公司估计的要低。得分低于3.5球的概率是65%。

我想强调的是，博阿维斯塔绝对不是一支糟糕的球队。他们以可观的28分排名第十。他们进了32个球，丢了45个球，但在比赛的各个方面都有进步。他们丢了45个球，但他们的预期失球数“只有”39.78个。我们必须记住上周四在意大利举行的欧联杯第二回合比赛中，里斯本竞技队1-2不敌亚特兰大。这对他们来说一定是巨大的失望，因为博彩公司认为亚特兰大只有微弱的晋级希望。欧洲联赛是欧足联第二好的俱乐部比赛。获胜者将获得下赛季欧洲冠军联赛的入场券。首回合与葡萄牙1-1战平。亚特兰大在主场表现稍好一些，他们理应出线!根据我23年的职业足球赌博经验，即使是顶级球队，也很难在精神上和身体上为一场国内联赛做好100%的准备，尤其是面对一个实力不强的对手——几乎是在一场重要的国际比赛之后——尤其是如果比赛失败了……博阿维斯塔也有一个星期的时间来准备这场比赛，所以他们肯定会得到更好的休息。在职业足球比赛中，只有整整两天的休息时间远不是最理想的。他们还必须从葡萄牙飞回家，这比在里斯本比赛更糟糕。在输给亚特兰大体育之前，他们在客场3-0击败了阿鲁卡，但最终的比分很容易误导人!阿鲁卡，一支相当小的球队，控球率为59% !两支球队都有10次进球尝试，但东道主，这场比赛中的巨大劣势，有更多的进攻和危险的进攻。xG值为0.67 ~ 1.43。博阿维斯塔在上一场比赛中主场1-0击败莫雷伦斯，踢得很好!博彩公司给他们的胜率定在3.50左右，但他们在xG上赚得更多，理应获胜。这是另一个博彩公司低估博阿维斯塔的例子!