In my opinion Mainz has really good chances to make 3 points in today's match.

Mainz has a significant mental advantage going into this game because they won their last two home games against Bochum. I feel home ground will make an important impact.

Mainz is in the relegation zone, 9 points behind the safe place, thus today is a'must win' game, and the team will offer all to get three points.

Mainz lost only one of their five home matches in 2024. Bochum, on the other hand, is a terrible road team, having won only one of their 12 away league games and conceding 33 goals.

The league standings shows a 9-point disparity between the two teams, however this is unfair to Mainz. They scored 10 less goals than Bochum, while the expected goals scored model predicted they would score only four fewer. Mainz currently has no difficulties scoring goals, having scored in their previous six matches in a row. Bochum lacked potency on the road, scoring only ten goals in 12 away league games. Mainz, on the other hand, has a far stronger defensive unit. According to the expected goals conceded model, the hosts' defensive shape is among the top five in Bundesliga. Bochum has conceded more than one goal in the last four games (13 in total), and according to the expected goals conceded model, only two clubs are worse than Bochum in Bundesliga.

Mainz is able to score more than one goal today and in the same time to not concede more than one. I see another home win in this match up.

我认为美因茨队在今天的比赛中有很好的机会得到3分。

美因茨在这场比赛中有很大的心理优势，因为他们在过去的两场主场比赛中都赢了波鸿。我觉得主场会产生重要影响。

美因茨处于降级区，落后安全区9分，因此今天是一场“必须赢”的比赛，球队将全力以赴以获得3分。

美因茨在2024年的五场主场比赛中只输了一场。另一方面，波鸿是一支糟糕的客场球队，12场客场比赛只赢了1场，丢了33个球。

联赛积分榜显示两队之间有9分的差距，但这对美因茨来说是不公平的。他们比波鸿少进10个球，而预期进球模型预测他们只少进4个。美因茨在此前的6场比赛中都取得了进球，目前在进球方面没有任何困难。波鸿在客场缺乏实力，在12场客场联赛中只进了10球。另一方面，美因茨拥有强大得多的防御部队。根据预期失球模型，东道主的防守阵型在德甲排名前五。波鸿在最近4场比赛中(共13场)丢了1个以上的球，按照预期失球模型，在德甲只有两家俱乐部比波鸿更糟糕。

美因茨今天能够进一个以上的球，同时不丢一个以上的球。我认为这场比赛又会是主场获胜。