Maccabi Tel Aviv VS Olympiakos Piraeus

Maccabi Tel Aviv host Olympiakos for this UEFA Europa Conference 1/8-finals second leg clash at TSC Arena in Bačka Topola early Friday morning Beijing time. Israeli teams cannot play their international home games in Israel because of the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel. Consequently, there is, in reality, no home advantage in this match. This affects the probabilities massively! Israeli teams usually perform well in front of their fans but struggle on the road. This is third-best of UEFA's club competitions – after the prestigious Champions League and Europa League. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of pretty average level by this competition's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very strong betting option here! We have won 10 of the last 11 bets betting on this league! The first leg last week was one of the most surprising international games I have seen this year. Olympiakos were priced around 1.60 to win but ended up losing 1-4! Their odds were dropping a few hours before the game as smart money seemed to pile up on them. Even so, the Israelis shocked the Greek hosts with two fast goals. Yes, Olympiakos were a gigantic disappointment in this game, there is no denying this. Maccabi also played a lot above their normal level. I will not react too heavily to this result – this is one of the key things in profitable long-term football betting. I want to mention that this pick is based pretty heavily on Olympiakos huge potential for improvement. It is also possible that they have basically given up and will rotate their squad heavily. However, I think this is improbable and we will have to accept this risk.. Odds are indeed worth the risk. Odds of about 2.10 are widely available on the away win. Their chance of winning is impossible to estimate accurately but I cannot see it being less than 50%. If they are fired up and play even with close to their best possible starting lineup their chances of winning can easily be around 60%. I expect them to be irritated by the humiliation at home and play with extra motivation here.. They are after all a much better team in terms of pure class and are also the hugely bigger team in terms of players' estimated total market value – according to Transfermarkt.com.

Maccabi Tel Aviv won the first leg 4-1 but this result is very misleading. Olympiakos had 58% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal (12-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks (170-69) and dangerous attacks – 84-25! The Israelis did generate a little more in xG though. I hope Olympiakos will push extremely hard here and the fact that Maccabi can lose by a margin of two goals and still qualify affects the probabilities a lot! Maccabi will surely defend hard and I believe they will be (too) passive here.. Based on long-term data in this scenario an average the team trailing on aggregate has about 0.14 higher xG in the second leg in UEFA's competitions than in "normal" game.. Well, the data also includes scenarios where the team trailing simply need to win to force an extra time at least and where a loss by a margin of one goal is still acceptable for one team so we can assume that in this "loss by a margin of the goals scenario" something close to 0.25 "extra xG" can be expected. This is quite a lot! Maccabi Tel Aviv won their last game 1-0 away from home against Beitar Jerusalem. They were priced around 1.45 to win this match. However, Beitar had 64% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (15-11), shots off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks (105-94) and dangerous attacks – 70-55! They also generated more in xG! 

Olympiakos occupy the 4th place in the Greek Super League which is of much better quality than the Israeli Ligat Ha'al. Olympiakos have grabbed 57 points and are just five points behind AEK Athens who top the standings. They lost to a big team, Panathinaikos (3rd place), 1-3 but had 54% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (13-11), shots off goal (6-1), total passes, completed passes, attacks (120-56) and dangerous attacks – 66-31! The final score is indeed misleading and the bookies seem to have reacted too heavily to Olympiakos's two losses in a row. Before these two defeats they were very strong – taking seven consecutive wins! Yes, Maccabi Tel-Aviv are the best team in Israel but not much better than Maccabi Haifa.. Tel Aviv top the standings and have taken 59 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 54.21. Their score difference is 52:19. Their number of xG is 47.77 and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 22.11.

特拉维夫马卡比VS比雷埃夫斯奥林匹亚科斯

北京时间周五凌晨，欧联杯八分之一决赛次回合比赛将在特拉维夫马卡比主场迎战奥林匹亚科斯。由于哈马斯和以色列之间正在进行的战争，以色列球队不能在以色列进行国际主场比赛。因此，实际上，在这场比赛中没有主场优势。这极大地影响了概率!以色列球队通常在球迷面前表现出色，但在客场却表现不佳。这是欧足联第三好的俱乐部赛事，仅次于著名的欧冠和欧联杯。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以本次比赛的标准来看相当普通的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常强大的投注选项!我们在过去的11次投注中赢了10次!上周的首回合比赛是我今年看过的最令人惊讶的国际比赛之一。奥林匹亚科斯的胜率在1.60左右，但最终以1比4输掉了比赛!他们的赔率在开赛前几个小时就下降了，因为聪明的钱似乎在他们身上堆积起来。即便如此，以色列人还是以两个快速进球震惊了东道主希腊。是的，奥林匹亚科斯在这场比赛中非常令人失望，这是不可否认的。马卡比的表现也超出了他们的正常水平。我不会对这个结果反应太强烈——这是长期盈利的足球博彩的关键因素之一。我想说的是，这次选秀很大程度上是基于奥林匹亚科斯巨大的进步潜力。也有可能他们基本上已经放弃了，将会大量轮换阵容。然而，我认为这是不可能的，我们将不得不接受这个风险。这种可能性确实值得冒险。客场获胜的赔率约为2.10。他们获胜的机会无法准确估计，但我认为它不会低于50%。如果他们被激发起来，用接近他们最好的首发阵容打球，他们获胜的机会很容易达到60%左右。我希望他们能被主场的羞辱激怒，在这里打得更有动力。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，从纯粹的球员水平来看，他们毕竟是一支更好的球队，从球员的估计总市场价值来看，他们也是一支大得多的球队。

特拉维夫马卡比第一回合以4比1获胜，但这个结果非常具有误导性。奥林匹亚科斯队的控球率为58%，他们的进球次数、射偏次数(12-2)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(170-69)和危险进攻次数(84-25)都要多得多!不过，以色列在xG方面确实产生了更多一些。我希望奥林匹亚科斯在这里竭尽全力，马卡比可能以两球之差输掉比赛，但仍能晋级，这对晋级的可能性影响很大!马卡比肯定会努力防守，我相信他们在这里会(太)被动。根据这种情况下的长期数据，在欧足联的比赛中，总比分落后的球队在次回合的平均xG比“正常”比赛高0.14。好吧，这些数据还包括了落后的球队只需要赢球就能至少迫使加时赛的情况，以及一支球队输掉一个球仍然是可以接受的情况，所以我们可以假设在这种“输掉一个球的情况”中，可以预期接近0.25个“额外的xG”。这是相当多的!上一场比赛，特拉维夫马卡比客场1-0战胜了耶路撒冷比塔尔。他们以1.45美元的价格赢得这场比赛。然而，贝塔尔有64%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(15-11)，射门次数，总传球次数，完成传球次数，攻击次数(105-94)和危险攻击- 70-55!他们在《xG!》

奥林匹亚科斯在希腊超级联赛中排名第四，这比以色列的Ligat Ha'al要好得多。奥林匹亚科斯拿到了57分，仅落后排名第一的雅典AEK 5分。他们1-3输给了实力强大的帕纳辛纳科斯(第三名)，但他们拥有54%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(13胜11负)、射偏(6胜1负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、攻击次数(120胜56负)和危险攻击次数(66胜31负)!最终的比分确实具有误导性，博彩公司似乎对奥林匹亚科斯的两连败反应过度。在这两场失利之前，他们非常强大，取得了七连胜!是的，特拉维夫马卡比是以色列最好的球队，但不比海法马卡比强多少。特拉维夫以59分排名第一，但他们的预期积分(xPTS)“只有”54.21分。他们的比分差是52:19。他们的xG数是47.77，他们的期望进球(xGA)是22.11。