PAOK Saloniki VS Dinamo Zagreb

PAOK host Dinamo Zagreb for this UEFA Europa Conference 1/8-finals second leg clash at Toumba Stadium very early Friday morning Beijing time. This is third-best of UEFA's club competitions – after the prestigious Champions League and Europa League. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of better than average level by this competition's standards here. Moreover, we have yet another very strong betting option here! We have won 10 of the last 11 bets betting on this league! Dinamo are a Croatian team – PAOK come from Greece. PAOK were amazingly strong in the group stage, winning five of the six matches.  They lost points only against Aberdeen at home but PAOK would definitely have deserved a win - they were very unlucky in this game. Their score difference was good – 16:10. I need to mention that their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was only 7.33 and their number of expected goals (xG) was 17.87. They were not the favourites to win this group on the betting market as there was Eintracht Frankfurt, a quite big German team in this group. However, PAOK defeated them twice! PAOK were priced at over 6.00 to beat Frankfurt away from home but grabbed a 2-1 win after a solid performance. Indeed, the bookmakers should respect this talented and skilled team much more than they have - and seemingly do in this game as well.. We must realize that PAOK are much better than they were last season. They have better players and play better as a team – more mature tactically - than in the 2022-2023 season.

PAOK are in 2nd place in the Greek Super League standings with a strong 60 points to their account. It is important to understand that this league is of a much better level than the Croatian HNL where over half of the teams are pretty limited. This results in Dinamo not have a chance to play many high-level games.. PAOK have massive firepower and have scored 66 goals in the Super League! This is the highest number in this league. Their defence is solid – without any obvious weaknesses. Stupid defensive mistakes are extremely rare - true skill is needed to break their defence. They lost their last game to Aris, a dangerous team currently in 5th place, 0-1 at home. However, they would have deserved all three points as they had a whopping 74% ball possession and also recorded more goal attempts (14-6), shots on goal, shots off goal (8-2), corner kicks (7-1), attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 0.89-0.28. There were no fans at the stadium in this game. On the 21st of February they even beat a big team Panathinaikos 2-0 away from home as solid underdogs on the betting market. On the 3rd of March PAOK dominated Lamia away from home – comfortably winning 2-0. They had a massive 78% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (17-4), shots on goal (8-2), shots off target, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 112-17. They also generated hugely more in expected goals (xG) – 2.45-0.13. Before this they were excellent on the road – giving Panserraikos not much of a chance to take points. PAOK took a 2-0 win.

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the difference between the two teams is narrow. The PAOK squad is valued at around 73 million euros – which is clearly too low in my expert opinion. The Zagreb players have an estimated market value of 71 million - but this is too high. At least four players are overvalued. Some 55 million would be a more accurate number.. Dinamo Zagreb are having a somewhat disappointing season in the Croatian HNL. They currently occupy the third place behind Rijeka and Hajduk Split with 48 points to their account.. They have been in good form result-wise recently but we must not forget that they have also had some luck on their side in several.. They have won two of their last three matches. In the previous round of Conference League they defeated Spanish Betis but were not the better team in the two games as a whole. Betis's coach also rotated the squad a lot.. Zabreb did, however, play better than I would have expected, no denying this. However, Betis played clearly below their normal level.. Betis are a big team and I believe beating them affects the odds too much in this game.. In the Conference League Group stage Zabreb were disappointing – losing three of the six matches. They even lost to a very small team by Conference League standards, Balkani, 0-2! Plzen from Czechia dominated this group. Astana, a pretty small team from Kazakhstan, finished in third place. In their most recent game Zagreb beat Slaven Belupo, currently in 8th place in HNL where only 10 teams play. They won 5-2 - priced below 1.20 to win by the bookmakers. The match was more balanced though – Zagreb recorded six shots on goal – the visitors managed four. Zagreb looked pretty vulnerable defensively in this game..

Zagreb won the first leg 2-0 but PAOK had 57% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (123-79) as well as dangerous attacks. Zagreb did generate more in xG though. Away from home they are usually much worse, whereas PAOK have a fanatic home crowd. They will push extremely hard here and the fact that Zagreb can lose by a margin of one goal and still qualify affects the probabilities a lot! Based on long-term data in this scenario an average the team trailing on aggregate has about 0.14 higher xG in the second leg in UEFA's competitions than in "normal" game.. I'm not sure if bookies or recreational bettors fully understand this.. Odds of around 1.80 on the home win are widely available. Yes, they are missing a few important players but the bookies seem to have overreacted to these absences. They have a deep squad, after all. Zagreb are without Rog and Stojkovic. Drmic, Moharrami, Peric and Vasilj are questionable. PAOK have a 60% chance to win but Zagreb are, of course, favourites to qualify.. Before last week's first leg Zagreb faced Osijek away from home and it was a disappointing 1-1 draw. Zagreb were priced around 1.80 to win on the betting market but Osijek, rather surprisingly, generated more in xG – 1.33-1.04 to be precise. It was not a strong performance at all from Zagreb. Before this they defeated Gorica 4-0 in a Croatian Cup quarter-finals clash but the match was much more balanced then the final score would reflect.. Zagreb had only 53.20 % ball possession and recorded 58 dangerous attacks – Gorica, the huge underdogs, managed 44.

萨洛尼卡VS萨格勒布迪纳摩

北京时间周五凌晨，PAOK主场迎战萨格勒布迪纳摩，进行欧联杯1/8决赛次回合比赛。这是欧足联第三好的俱乐部赛事，仅次于著名的欧冠和欧联杯。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场高于比赛平均水平的比赛。此外，我们还有另一个非常强大的投注选项!我们在过去的11次投注中赢了10次!迪纳摩是一支克罗地亚球队，而PAOK来自希腊。PAOK在小组赛中非常强大，赢得了六场比赛中的五场。他们只在主场对阿伯丁的比赛中丢了分，但是PAOK绝对值得一场胜利——他们在这场比赛中非常不走运。他们的比分相差很大——16:10。我需要提到的是，他们的预期进球数(xGA)只有7.33，他们的预期进球数(xG)是17.87。在博彩市场上，他们并不是最有希望赢得小组冠军的球队，因为这个小组中有一支相当强大的德国球队法兰克福。然而，巴控克什米尔击败了他们两次!PAOK在客场击败法兰克福时的定价超过6.00，但在表现稳定后以2-1取胜。事实上，博彩公司应该比他们更尊重这支才华横溢、技术娴熟的球队——在这场比赛中似乎也是如此。我们必须认识到现在的北京队比上个赛季强多了。与2022-2023赛季相比，他们有更好的球员，作为一个团队踢得更好，战术上也更成熟。

PAOK目前在希腊超级联赛积分榜上排名第二，积分高达60分。重要的是要明白，这个联赛的水平比克罗地亚的HNL好得多，后者超过一半的球队相当有限。这导致迪纳摩没有机会参加很多高水平的比赛。PAOK火力强大，在中超打进66球!这是联盟中最高的数字。他们的防守很坚固，没有任何明显的弱点。愚蠢的防守失误是极其罕见的-真正的技术需要打破他们的防守。他们在上一场比赛中输给了Aris，这是一支目前排名第五的危险球队，主场0-1。然而，他们应该得到这三分，因为他们拥有高达74%的控球率，并且有更多的进球次数(14-6)，射正，射偏(8-2)，角球(7-1)，攻击和危险攻击。xG值为0.89 ~ 0.28。这场比赛体育场里没有球迷。2月21日，他们甚至在客场以2比0击败了豪门帕纳辛奈科斯，在博彩市场上他们是绝对的失败者。3月3日，PAOK客场2-0轻松战胜了Lamia。他们控球率高达78%，进球次数(17-4)、射正次数(8-2)、射偏次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数(112-17)也更多。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)——2.45-0.13。在此之前，他们在客场表现出色，没有给潘塞莱科斯多少得分的机会。PAOK以2:0获胜。

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，两支球队之间的差距很小。PAOK队的价值约为7300万欧元——在我的专家看来，这显然太低了。萨格勒布球员的市场价值估计为7100万欧元，但这个数字太高了。至少有四位球员被高估了。大约5500万是更准确的数字。萨格勒布迪纳摩在克罗地亚HNL联赛中度过了一个令人失望的赛季。目前他们以48分排名第三，仅次于里耶卡和哈伊杜克斯普利特。他们最近的成绩很好，但我们不能忘记他们在几场比赛中也有一些运气。他们最近三场比赛赢了两场。在上一轮的联盟联赛中，他们击败了西班牙贝蒂斯，但在两场比赛中，他们整体上并不是更好的球队。贝蒂斯的教练也经常轮换阵容。然而，萨布雷布确实发挥得比我预期的要好，这是不可否认的。然而，贝蒂斯的表现明显低于他们的正常水平。贝蒂斯是一支强大的球队，我相信击败他们对这场比赛的影响太大了。在联盟杯小组赛中，萨布雷布的表现令人失望，6场比赛输掉了3场。他们甚至以0比2输给了一支按照联盟标准非常小的球队——巴尔卡尼!来自捷克的Plzen在这一组中占主导地位。来自哈萨克斯坦的一支相当小的车队阿斯塔纳获得了第三名。在他们最近的一场比赛中，萨格勒布击败了目前在只有10支球队参加的HNL排名第8的斯拉文·贝卢波。〇以5比2获胜

萨格勒布2-0赢得首回合比赛，但PAOK拥有57%的控球率，并且有更多的进球次数(123-79)和危险的进攻。萨格勒布在xG中确实产生了更多。在客场，他们的表现通常要差得多，而巴控队有狂热的主场球迷。他们将在这里竭尽全力，而萨格勒布可能以一球之差输掉比赛，但仍能出线，这对他们出线的可能性影响很大!根据这种情况下的长期数据，在欧足联的比赛中，总比分落后的球队在次回合的平均xG比“正常”比赛高0.14。我不确定赌徒或娱乐赌徒是否完全理解这一点。主场获胜的赔率约为1.80。是的，他们失去了一些重要的球员，但是博彩公司似乎对这些缺阵反应过度了。毕竟他们的阵容很强大。萨格勒布没有罗格和斯托伊科维奇。德米克、莫哈拉米、佩里奇和瓦西里都有问题。PAOK有60%的机会获胜，但萨格勒布当然是晋级的热门。在上周的首回合比赛之前，萨格勒布在客场面对奥西耶克，结果是令人失望的1-1平局。萨格勒布在博彩市场上的胜率是1.80左右，但令人惊讶的是，奥西耶克在xG上的胜率更高——准确地说是1.33-1.04。萨格勒布的表现一点也不强。在此之前，他们在克罗地亚杯1 / 4决赛中以4-0击败戈里察，但比赛比最终比分反映的要平衡得多。萨格勒布只有53.20%的控球率，有58次危险进攻，而处于劣势的戈里察有44次。