Aston Villa VS AFC Ajax

Aston Villa host Ajax for this UEFA Europa Conference 1/8-finals second leg clash at Villa Park Friday morning Beijing time. This is third-highest of UEFA's club competitions – after the legendary Champions League and Europa League. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of high level by this competition's standards here. However, we have yet another very lucrative betting option here! We have won 10 of the last 11 bets betting on this league! Aston Villa are an English team – Ajax come from the Netherlands. Aston Villa currently occupy the 4th place in the Premier League with 55 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is much lower – 44.22 to be precise. They have netted the ball 59 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is 53.87.They have conceded 41 goals and their defence is not very well-structured – for a top-4 team. Their defenders also keep on making quite a few silly mistakes – giving too risky passes near their own goal etc. For example Everton, currently in 16th place have allowed only 39 goals. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is even higher – 46.76 to be precise. Aston Villa were disappointing in their last game, losing to Tottenham 0-4 at home as favourites according to the bookies! Tottenham had a whopping 69.40% ball possession and recorded many more shots on goal – 5-1. They also generated much more in xG – 2.16-0.76. Yes, Villa's McGinn was sent off in the 65th minute but the score was 0-2 at this point and Villa were not playing well. They are in a fierce fight with Tottenham - and perhaps with Manchester United for a top-4 finish. Finishing in 4th place would bring them a ticket for the Champions League for next season. It would be worth a lot of money for the club and most probably hefty bonuses for the players. I strongly believe that this is clearly their most important goal for this season, not the Conference League. I am not saying that the players on the pitch would not do their best, of course. However, even heavy squad rotation would not be a surprise here. They have an important game against West Ham on Sunday at 10 pm. Beijing time. They will be without Buendia, Kamara, Konsa, Mings and Zaniolo here. Ramsey is questionable. Ajax will be missing Goojier. Avila, Berghuis, Bergwin and van Axel Donger are questionable.

Ajax are not as strong as they used to be in the last five or so years. Some years ago they even did well in the Champions League Playoffs. Even so, they have a decent squad with several talented players. They are in 5th place in the Dutch Eredivisie with a decent 40 points in their pocket. They have, in reality, lost their chance to fight for a top-3 place that would bring them a chance to play in the Champions League next season. I believe they are the more motivated team in this game.. They have scored 55 goals and have allowed 45 goals. Their number of xGA is "only" 38.77. They had an abysmal start to the season but have raised their level significantly in 2024! In their last game they faced Sittard at home and it was a 2-2 draw at home. They were, however, the much better team on the pitch -having 73.20% ball possession. They also generated many more goal attempts (18-9), shots on goal, shots off target, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Aston Villa were clear favourites in the first leg according to the bookies – priced around 1.90 to win. This was clearly too low. This was yet another example of the bookies overvaluing Aston Villa! Ajax generated 0.87 in xG - Villa were very lame offensively and their number of xG was only 0.21. Ajax had 51% ball possession. Yes, Villa are the better team here and the home advantage needs to be given enough emphasis but their odds of around 1.40 to win in the 90 minutes of football are way too low. We will take the Ajax +1.5 goals handicap option. Odds of around 1.85 are widely available with the biggest bookies. The chance of winning – once again – is good - 62.50% to be precise. I will post three more picks on the Conference League today!

阿斯顿维拉VS阿贾克斯

北京时间周五上午，阿斯顿维拉主场迎战阿贾克斯，进行欧联杯1/8决赛次回合比赛。这是欧足联第三高的俱乐部赛事，仅次于传奇的欧冠和欧联杯。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的，渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场高水平的比赛，以本届比赛的标准来看。然而，我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博选择!我们在过去的11次投注中赢了10次!阿斯顿维拉是一支英格兰球队，阿贾克斯来自荷兰。阿斯顿维拉目前以55分的积分排名英超第四。然而，它们的期望值(xPTS)要低得多，准确地说是44.22。他们有59次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)为53.87。他们已经丢了41个球，他们的防守结构不是很好——对于一支排名前四的球队来说。他们的后卫也不断犯一些愚蠢的错误——在自己的球门附近传球太危险等等。以目前排名第16的埃弗顿为例，他们只丢了39个球。他们的预期进球数(xGA)甚至更高——准确地说是46.76。阿斯顿维拉在上一场比赛中表现令人失望，根据博彩公司的预测，他们在主场0-4输给了热刺。热刺的控球率高达69.40%，射门次数也更多——5比1。它们在xG - 2.16-0.76中生成的内容也更多。是的，维拉的麦克金在第65分钟被罚下，但此时比分是0-2，维拉踢得不太好。他们正与热刺展开激烈的竞争，也许还会与曼联争夺前四。以第四名的成绩结束比赛将为他们带来下赛季欧冠的入场券。对于俱乐部来说，这将是一大笔钱，而且很可能会给球员们带来丰厚的奖金。我坚信这显然是他们本赛季最重要的目标，而不是联盟。当然，我并不是说球员们在球场上不会尽自己最大的努力。然而，在这里，即使是沉重的阵容轮换也不会令人惊讶。他们在周日晚上10点与西汉姆有一场重要的比赛。北京时间。布恩蒂亚、卡马拉、康萨、明斯和扎尼奥洛不在这里了。拉姆齐值得怀疑。Ajax将会失去Goojier。阿维拉、伯格斯、伯格温和范阿克塞尔·东格尔都有问题。

阿贾克斯不像过去五年那样强大了。几年前，他们甚至在欧冠季后赛中表现出色。即便如此，他们还是拥有一支有天赋的球队。他们目前在荷甲联赛中排名第五，已经拿到了40分。事实上，他们已经失去了争夺前三名的机会，这将给他们带来下赛季参加欧冠的机会。我相信他们是这场比赛中更有动力的球队。他们进了55球，丢了45球。他们的xGA数“只有”38.77。他们本赛季开局糟糕透顶，但在2024年他们的水平大大提高了!在上一场比赛中，他们在主场与西塔德战成2-2平。然而，他们在球场上的表现要好得多——控球率为73.20%。他们也创造了更多的进球尝试(18-9次)、射正、射偏、总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻。根据博彩公司的说法，阿斯顿维拉在第一回合显然是最受欢迎的，他们的胜率约为1.90英镑。这显然太低了。这是博彩公司高估阿斯顿维拉的又一个例子!阿贾克斯的射门得分为0.87，维拉的进攻很差劲，他们的射门得分只有0.21。阿贾克斯有51%的控球率。是的，维拉在这里是一支更好的球队，主场优势需要给予足够的重视，但他们在90分钟的比赛中取胜的几率只有1.40左右，这实在太低了。我们将采用阿贾克斯+1.5个进球障碍选项。在最大的博彩公司中，赔率约为1.85。再一次获胜的机会是好的，准确地说是62.50%。今天我将再发表三篇关于联盟的文章!