In my opinion, Union has really good chances to at least avoid a big loss in this match. +1.5 AH on the away side looks like a safe option to play.

Both teams played each other at this stadium in October (DFB Pokal). Stuttgart won 1:0, but that was a tight game as both teams finished with expected goals scored value below 0.99.

Union had a horrible start of the season, but now they are rock-solid - no doubt about that. In 2024 the team from Berlin played 10 matches in all competitions and lost only 3 times (against top teams in Bundesliga - Bayern, RBL and Dortmund). Against RBL they lost 0;2, but that wasn't a fully deserved result: expected goals scored for RBL 1.15, for Union 0.53. Same story in last round 0:2 loss against Dortmund: expected goals scored for Dortmund 1.58, for Union 1.26. All Union key players are available today so I expect another solid performance. In 2024 only Bayern was able to produce more than 2.00 expected goals scored value against Union.

On the other hand, Stuttgart plays an excellent season (much above expectations), but they are still not a complete team. In 2024, they played 10 matches in all competitions and failed to keep even one clean sheet during that run. Today they are without key central defender Zagadou so for sure it will not be easy to not concede a goal. In last 5 matches, Stuttgart won with more than one goal difference only one time - at home against Mainz (3:1), but that wasn’t fully deserved outcome: expected goals scored for Stuttgart 1.94, for Mainz 1.45.

All in all, odds on Union are simply too high. They have solid chances to score at least one goal and not concede more than 2. In those circumstances +1.5 AH looks like valuable.

在我看来，联盟队很有可能在这场比赛中避免大败。+1.5 AH在客场看起来是一个安全的选择。

今年10月，两支球队在这个球场进行了一场比赛。斯图加特1:0获胜，但这是一场势均力敌的比赛，两支球队的预期进球值都低于0.99。

联盟本赛季开局很糟糕，但现在他们坚如磐石——这是毫无疑问的。2024年，这支来自柏林的球队在各项赛事中打了10场比赛，只输了3场(对阵德甲顶级球队——拜仁、RBL和多特蒙德)。对RBL，他们输了0;2，但这并不是一个完全应得的结果:RBL的预期进球数为1.15，联盟为0.53。在上一轮0:2输给多特蒙德的比赛中也是如此:多特蒙德的预期进球数为1.58，曼联为1.26。今天所有工会的主力球员都可以上场，所以我期待着又一次稳定的表现。在2024年对阵曼联的比赛中，只有拜仁能够创造超过200个预期进球值。

另一方面，斯图加特踢了一个出色的赛季(远高于预期)，但他们仍然不是一支完整的球队。在2024年，他们在所有比赛中打了10场比赛，在此期间没有保持一场零封。今天他们失去了重要的中卫扎加杜，所以不失球肯定不容易。在过去的5场比赛中，斯图加特只有一次以1球以上的差距获胜——主场对阵美因茨(3:1)，但这并不是完全应得的结果:斯图加特的预期进球数为1.94，美因茨为1.45。

总而言之，联合利华的胜算实在太高了。他们有很好的机会至少进一个球，失球不超过两个。在这些情况下，+1.5 AH看起来很有价值。