In my opinion, Fukuoka has bigger chances to avoid a loss in this game than the bookies want to suggest for us based on their odds.

Fukuoka is an extremely solid team at the back. According to the expected goals conceded model, in the previous season, only three teams from the whole league played better in defense than Avispa. The lineup of that formation hasn't changed much from last season. In the opening match of the season, Fukuoka played at home against Sapporo - very dangerous opposition (in the previous season, they had the best offensive formation in the whole league, according to the expected goals scored model). The match finished with a draw 0:0 and Avispa played with a defensive mindset and showed great consistency and stability at the back (facing only 9 shots, with 0.31 expected goals conceded). On the other hand, they had 3 big chances to score and looked dangerous on counterattacks.

For sure, Avispa once again is going to play deep at the back and wait for chances to score. It’s not easy to score against them, so I don’t see an easy job for Yokohama. Hosts defensive formation is leaky, no doubt about that. In the previous season, only one team in the whole league looked worse in terms of expected goals conceded than Yokohama. In the opening match, they played on the road against Tokyo Verdy. They won 2:1, but they had fewer expected goals scored than their opponents. Not convincing at all. In addition to that, in the next few days Yokohama is going to play a Champions League game and their motivation today is under a huge question mark for me.

In those circumstances double chance on Fukuoka looks like a very valuable option to play.

在我看来，福冈在这场比赛中避免失败的机会比博彩公司根据赔率给我们的建议要大。

福冈在后防线上是一支非常稳固的球队。根据预期失球模型，在前一个赛季，全联盟只有三支球队的防守比阿维斯帕更好。这个阵型的阵容与上赛季相比没有太大变化。在本赛季的揭幕战中，福冈主场对阵札幌——非常危险的对手(根据预期进球模型，他们在上个赛季拥有全联赛最好的进攻阵型)。比赛以0:0的平局结束，阿维斯帕以防守的心态踢球，在后场表现出了很强的稳定性和稳定性(只面对9次射门，预期失球0.31个)。另一方面，他们有3次很好的得分机会，在反击中看起来很危险。

可以肯定的是，阿维斯帕会再次打后腰，等待机会得分。对他们进球并不容易，所以我认为横滨的任务并不容易。东道主的防守阵型有漏洞，这是毫无疑问的。在上个赛季，整个联赛中只有一支球队在预期失球方面比横滨队更糟糕。在揭幕战中，他们在客场对阵东京Verdy。他们2:1获胜，但他们的预期进球数比对手少。一点都不令人信服。除此之外，在接下来的几天里横滨将有一场欧冠比赛，他们今天的动力对我来说是个巨大的问号。

在这种情况下，福冈的双倍机会看起来是一个非常有价值的选择。