In my opinion Benfica have much bigger chances than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

It is a special game, the Lisbon derby, but Benfica has a significant mental edge because they have not lost to Sporting in the last four encounters.

There is almost no difference in the league table (Benfica has two more points but has played one more game); they will compete for the title until the end, but if you dig deeper, Benfica appears to be performing better in this campaign. They surrendered five more goals than Sporting. Sporting scored 63, however the expected goals scored model predicted only 48.4. Benfica scored 56 points, whereas the same model expected 54.4. Furthermore, Sporting is currently without major attacking player, Paulinho, who is the team's second best scorer.

Both teams came into this game in completely opposite moods. Sporting failed to win against Rio Ave (3:3), which was a poor performance; they should have lost because they had a lower expected goal scoring value than their opponents. The defensive formation was leaky. That should be troublesome today. Benfica triumphed 4:0 against Portimonense over the weekend. Everything is clicking together at both ends of the pitch. Two clean sheets in a row, with more than one goal scored in 13 of the last 15 matches in all competitions.

I don't see Sporting as a favorite here.

在我看来，本菲卡的机会比博彩公司给出的赔率要大得多。

里斯本德比是一场特殊的比赛，但本菲卡有很大的心理优势，因为他们在过去的四次交锋中没有输给过里斯本竞技。

两队在积分榜上几乎没有什么不同(本菲卡多得两分，但多踢了一场比赛);他们将为冠军而战，直到最后，但如果你深入挖掘，本菲卡似乎在这场比赛中表现更好。他们比里斯本竞技多丢了5个球。体育队得到了63个进球，然而预期进球模型预测只有48.4个。本菲卡队得到56分，而同样的模型预测是54.4分。此外，里斯本竞技目前没有主力进攻球员保利尼奥，他是球队第二好的射手。

两支球队在这场比赛中心情完全相反。竞技未能赢下里约大道(3:3)，这是一场糟糕的比赛;他们应该输掉比赛，因为他们的预期进球值比对手低。防守阵型有漏洞。今天那应该很麻烦。上周末，本菲卡4:0战胜了波尔蒂莫内斯。球场两端的一切都配合得很好。在各项赛事的最近15场比赛中，有13场进球超过1球，连续两场零封对手。

我不认为这里的体育是最受欢迎的。