Besiktas JK VS Konyaspor

Besiktas and Konyaspor lock horns in this Turkish Cup quarter-finals battle very early Thursday morning Beijing time. Both teams play in the Turkish Super Lig. The level of this league is clearly better than on average on the planet but it is still far from the level of the top-5 European leagues. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of better than average level by this competition's standards here. Most importantly we have yet another very promising game to bet on here! There is no doubt about the fact that Besiktas are the more capable team here. The key question when analysing this match is how much stronger than Istanbulspor they are.. This competition is surely not the main focus for either team here. Indeed, even heavy squad rotation by both teams' managers would not be a surprise here.. Besiktas are in fierce. Besiktas currently occupy the 4th place in the league table and are in a fierce struggle  with Trabzonspor for the third place. Finishing in 3rd place would earn them a ticket for the UEFA Europa League qualification for next season. This is surely the most important goal for them during the remainder of the season.. Besiktas have a decent 46 points to their account. However, they are a whopping 26 points behind Galatasaray who currently top the standings. Besiktas's number of expected points (xPTS) is clearly lower – 40.23 to be precise. Furthermore, their goal difference is not particularly impressive for a top-4. They have netted the ball 39 times in this league and have conceded 31 goals. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 35.32 and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 37.76. Besiktas have been in rather mediocre form lately. Indeed, they have won four of their last eight matches. In their last game they beat Istanbulspor, the rock-bottom team, 2-0 on the road. Galatasaray were big favourites in this game – priced around 1.50 to win by the bookies. The final score, however, is misleading! Indeed, Besiktas had only 51% ball possession and recorded only one more shot on goal than the hosts. Istanbulspor even managed two more goal attempts. Both teams generated 0.80 in xG.

Before this Besiktas beat Konyaspor 2-0 at home as big favourites - priced around 1.50 to take all three points. It was a Super Lig clash. They did deserve the three points but didn't fully convince me as a whole on the pitch. They had only 52% ball possession and recorded only moderately more attacks and dangerous attacks – 43-36 to be precise. Besiktas did, however, generate 1.40 in xG – Konyaspor's number was 0.40 Before defeating Konyaspor, Besiktas took on Kayserispor on the road as very clear favourites according to the bookmakers – priced around 1.85-1.90 to win. It was a goalless draw but the hosts were the much better team and Besiktas were somewhat disappointing. The hosts had 53% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (14-6), shots on goal (4-1), shots off target (6-2), corner kicks, attacks as well as dangerous attacks! Kayserispor also generated 1.24 in xG – Besiktas managed only 0.19! Before this they played an okay game, beating Antalyaspor 2-1 away from home in a cup game. However in round 24 they failed to impress me despite beating Trabzonspor 2-0 at home as clear favourites. The visitors had 55% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (13-9), shots off target (8-3), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks – 55-33. 

Konyaspor, on the other hand, are having a disappointing season, especially in terms of results – no denying this.. Last season they ended in 8th place with a strong 51 points to their account. They currently occupy the 18th place in the league table. They have only 28 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is substantially higher though – 33.12 to be precise. Their goal difference is not impressive but is very misleading. They have netted the ball 26 times in this league and have conceded goals. Their number of expected goals is 33.88. The visitors have allowed 39 goals their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 33.66. Their offense has been a disappointment. They have often lacked speed, creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments but can certainly improve especially in this area of the game during the rest of the season. The Besiktas defence is so vulnerable that I would not be super surprised to see the visitors score more than once here! I do trust their coach to find ways to hurt the hosts' defence here. Konyaspor have improved a lot lately – losing just one of their last eight games. They have now won two games in a row and their level of confidence seems to be okay. In their last game they played well, beating Hatayspor 2-0 at home. They fully deserved the three points as they generated much more in xG than the visitors – 1.99-0.21. Before losing to Besiktas Konyaspor defeated Ankaragucu 1-0 at home and deserved to win. They recorded more goal attempts (14-9), shots off target, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated more in xG – 0.96-0.45. Before this they also deserved the three points – against Sivasspor – away from home 1-0 in a Turkish Cup clash. They recorded more goal attempts (14-6), shots on target, shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks than the hosts. They were pretty narrow underdogs on the betting market and I really liked their performance. Yes, the hosts deserve to be the favourites here but the current odds of around 1.45 offered on Besiktas to win (during the 90 minutes of play) by the biggest bookies are clearly too low. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis they have a 57% chance of winning during 90 minutes of football. The Konyaspor +1.5 goals handicap option with 69.50% chance of winning is the obvious smart bet here!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

贝西克塔斯JK VS科尼亚斯波尔

北京时间周四凌晨，贝西克塔斯队和科尼亚斯波尔队在土耳其杯四分之一决赛中交锋。两支球队都参加了土耳其超级联赛。这个联赛的水平显然比这个星球上的平均水平要好，但与欧洲五大联赛的水平还有很大的差距。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场高于比赛平均水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们有另一个非常有前途的游戏在这里下注!毫无疑问，贝西克塔斯是更有能力的球队。分析这场比赛的关键问题是他们比伊斯坦布尔队强多少。这场比赛肯定不是两队的主要关注点。事实上，即使两支球队的主教练都进行了大量的阵容轮换，也不会让人感到意外。贝西克塔人很激烈。贝西克塔斯目前在联赛中排名第四，与特拉布宗斯波尔争夺第三名。获得第三名将为他们赢得下赛季欧联杯资格的入场券。这无疑是他们在本赛季剩下的时间里最重要的目标。贝西克塔斯有相当不错的46分。然而，他们与目前排名第一的加拉塔萨雷相差26分。贝西克塔斯的期望分数(xPTS)显然更低，准确地说是40.23。此外，他们的净胜球对于前4强来说也不是特别令人印象深刻。他们在联赛中取得了39次进球，丢了31个球。他们的预期进球数(xG)是35.32，他们的预期进球数(xGA)是37.76。贝西克塔斯最近的表现相当平庸。事实上，他们在最近的8场比赛中赢了4场。在上一场比赛中，他们客场以2比0击败了排名垫底的球队伊斯坦布尔队。加拉塔萨雷队是这场比赛的大热门——博彩公司开出的胜率约为1.50英镑。然而，最后的分数是误导性的!事实上，贝西克塔斯只有51%的控球率，而且只比东道主多射门一次。伊斯坦布尔队甚至还尝试了两次进球。两支球队在xG上的得分都是0.80。

在此之前，贝西克塔斯在主场以2比0击败科尼亚斯波尔，他们被认为是最大的热门，价格在1.50左右，可以拿到全部三分。这是一场超级联赛的比赛。他们确实配得上三分，但在球场上并没有完全说服我。他们只有52%的控球率，进攻和危险进攻也只多了一些，准确地说是43比36。然而，贝西克塔斯在xG中确实赚了1.40，而科尼亚斯波尔的数字是0.40。在击败科尼亚斯波尔之前，贝西克塔斯在客场对阵开塞利斯波尔，根据博彩公司的说法，这是一个非常明显的热门，赔率在1.85-1.90左右。这是一场0比0的平局，但东道主的表现要好得多，贝西克塔斯的表现有些令人失望。主队有53%的控球率，并且有更多的进球尝试(14胜6负)、射正(4胜1负)、射偏(6胜2负)、角球、进攻和危险进攻!开塞利斯波尔在xG也获得了1.24分，而贝西克塔斯只获得了0.19分!在此之前，他们打了一场不错的比赛，在一场杯赛中客场2-1击败安塔利亚斯波尔。然而，在第24轮比赛中，他们未能给我留下深刻的印象，尽管他们在主场以2比0击败特拉布宗斯波。客队的控球率为55%，进球次数(13比9)、射偏(8比3)、角球、进攻和危险进攻(55比33)也更多。

另一方面，Konyaspor度过了一个令人失望的赛季，尤其是在成绩方面——不可否认……上赛季他们以51分的成绩排在第8位。他们目前在联赛中排名第18位。他们的账户上只有28分。它们的期望值(xPTS)要高得多——准确地说是33.12。他们的净胜球并不令人印象深刻，但很容易误导人。他们在联赛中26次进球，1次失球。他们的预期进球数是33.88个。客队丢了39个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是33.66个。他们的进攻令人失望。他们经常在关键时刻缺乏速度、创造力和传球准确性，但在本赛季剩下的时间里，他们当然可以在这方面有所提高。贝西克塔斯的防线太脆弱了，如果看到客队在这里进球不止一次，我一点也不会感到惊讶。我相信他们的教练会找到办法打击东道主的防线。Konyaspor最近进步很大，最近8场比赛只输了1场。他们现在已经连续赢了两场比赛，他们的信心似乎还不错。在最后一场比赛中

他们打得很好，在主场2-0击败了哈塔斯港。他们完全配得上这三分，因为他们在xG上的得分比客队高得多——1.99比0.21。在输给贝西克塔斯之前，科尼亚斯波尔在主场1-0击败了安卡拉古库，理应获胜。他们记录了更多的进球次数(14胜9负)、射偏、进攻和危险进攻。它们在xG - 0.96-0.45中也产生了更多。在此之前，他们也配得上三分——对阵西瓦斯波尔——在土耳其杯客场1-0的比赛中。他们的进球次数(14胜6负)、射正、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻都比东道主多。他们在博彩市场上处于劣势，我真的很喜欢他们的表现。是的，东道主理应成为最受欢迎的球队，但目前最大的博彩公司对贝西克塔斯队(在90分钟的比赛中)获胜的赔率约为1.45，显然太低了。根据我复杂的数据分析，他们在90分钟的比赛中有57%的获胜机会。Konyaspor +1.5个进球障碍选项有69.50%的获胜机会显然是明智的赌注!