In my opinion, Holstein Kiel has a great possibility of scoring at least one point in today's game.

It's a game between two strong Bundesliga 2 teams, and it's difficult for me to choose St. Pauli as an away favorite. Even one point is acceptable to the guests.

St. Pauli triumphed at this stadium the previous season, however the result was not entirely deserved: expected goals scored for St. Pauli were 0.80, whereas for Holstein they were 1.76. Prior to the game, St. Pauli had lost four consecutive away meetings against Holstein.

Holstein Kiel came into this game in a strong mood, having won their previous two games (against Schalke and Paderborn). The team looked pretty good at both ends of the pitch. Solid in the back, keeping two clean sheets, and dangerous in attack, scoring five goals. Skrzybski was named man of the match twice. There are no fresh absences, thus the lineup should be precisely the same as in the last round versus Paderborn. Holstein was undefeated in 7 of 11 home league games and has all of the skills to enhance that record today.

St. Pauli has failed to win five of its ten away league matches this season. I'm not particularly confident with their defensive formation. Since the end of November, St. Pauli has played 11 matches in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet only twice (twice at home), but they had a lot of luck in both games. Against Kaiserslautern had 1.65 expected goals conceded, while against Braunschweig had 2.00 expected goals conceded. On the other hand, St. Pauli has a new major absence. They are now without their key offensive player, Saad (second-best scorer). That should have a significant negative influence on their offensive output.

I see good value on the home side here.

在我看来，荷尔斯泰因·基尔在今天的比赛中很有可能至少得一分。

这是两支德甲强队之间的比赛，我很难选择圣保利作为客场的首选。即使是一分，客人也能接受。

上个赛季，圣保利在这个球场取得了胜利，但结果并不完全值得:圣保利的预期进球数为0.80，而荷尔斯泰因的预期进球数为1.76。在这场比赛之前，圣保利已经连续四次客场输给荷尔斯泰因。

荷尔斯泰因基尔队在这场比赛中心情很好，他们赢了前两场比赛(对阵沙尔克和帕德博恩)。这支球队在球场两端看起来都很出色。后防线稳固，两场不失球，进攻端很危险，打进5球。斯克日比斯基两次当选本场最佳球员。没有新人缺席，因此阵容应该和上一轮对阵帕德博恩时完全一样。荷尔斯泰因在11场主场比赛中有7场不败，今天他有能力提升这一纪录。

圣保利在本赛季的10场客场联赛中有5场失利。我对他们的防守阵型不是很有信心。自去年11月底以来，圣保利在各项赛事中一共打了11场比赛，只有两场没有失球(两场是在主场)，但他们在两场比赛中都很幸运。对凯泽斯劳滕的预期失球是1.65个，对不伦瑞克的预期失球是2.00个。另一方面，圣保利又出现了新的重大缺位。他们现在失去了他们的关键进攻球员，萨阿德(第二最佳得分手)。这应该会对他们的进攻输出产生重大的负面影响。

我看到了主场的价值。