In my opinion Plymouth have big chances to at least avoid big loss here. +1.5 AH on home side looks like super safe option to play.

Both teams played two times this season and twice Leeds was just little bit better, according to the expected goals scored model. 1.71 vs 1.43 and 1.55 vs 1.18, but in both matches played at home. Now Plymouth front of the home crowd and that should make big difference.

Plymouth is in great form, went unbeaten in last 6 consecutive matches and wants to continue that streak and get qualification into next round of the FA Cup. Everyone in the club looking for the deep run. Plymouth today will use strong line up on the pitch. Motivation is big and they are always hard to break at home. In current season Plymouth didn't lose in 11 of 14 home league matches.

FA Cup is not Leeds highest priority, no doubt about that. They wants to bounce back to Premier League so we can expect some rotation in squad today because schedule is fully packed. Is hard, long trip to Plymouth and Leeds is not monster on the road. They won last than 50% away league matches in current season. In addition to that, today they are without their second-best player (according to the ratings) James. That should have very bad impact on their performance.

In those circumstances value is on home side here.

在我看来，普利茅斯至少有很大的机会避免大损失。主队+1.5 AH看起来是一个超级安全的选择。

这两支球队本赛季都打了两场比赛，根据预期进球模型，利兹联的两场比赛稍微好一点。1.71比1.43和1.55比1.18，但两场比赛都在主场进行。现在普利茅斯站在主场球迷的前面，这应该会有很大的不同。

普利茅斯状态很好，在最近的6场比赛中保持不败，他们希望继续保持这种势头，进入足总杯下一轮。俱乐部里的每个人都在找乐子。普利茅斯今天将使用强大的阵容上场。动力是巨大的，他们总是很难打破在家里。本赛季，普利茅斯在14场主场比赛中11场未输。

足总杯不是利兹联的首要任务，这是毫无疑问的。他们想要回到英超，所以我们可以期待今天的阵容轮换，因为赛程已经排满了。是艰苦的，长途跋涉的普利茅斯和利兹都不是路上的怪物。他们在本赛季赢得了超过50%的客场比赛。除此之外，今天他们没有了他们第二好的球员詹姆斯(根据评分)。这会对他们的表现产生非常坏的影响。

在这种情况下，价值是在主场。