Hertha Berlin VS Hamburger SV

Hertha Berlin host Hamburger SV for this German 2. Bundesliga round 20 clash at Olympiastadion early Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is one of the best second tiers in the world. Many teams have quite big stadiums and a large number of spectators. The maximum capacity of Olympiastadion is almost 75 000. I expect the atmosphere to be great in this match. The home fans offer a huge boost to the hosts! Indeed, the home advantage here is substantial. Hertha have played very well at Olympiastadion in this league this season. They have lost just two of the nine games and their score difference at home is very good – 21:9 to be precise! Football lovers and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of high level by this league's standards. Hertha Berlin were relegated from this league after a lame last season in the Bundesliga. However, they were also unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They have been disappointing this season, no denying this. They currently occupy the 10th place in the standings. They have 26 points in their pocket. However, their number of xPTS is much higher – 30.11 to be precise. Even so, I have slightly lowered their power ratings from the in-depth preseason analysis. At the moment, they are in 5th place in this rating that illustrates the teams' pure class – excluding motivation factors and the possible fatigue – caused by a demanding match schedule. A total of 18 clubs play in this league. The visitors are in 4th place in this ranking. I also want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Hamburger SV squad is valued only a little higher than that of the hosts' - some 46 million euros and about 43 million. This should be an entertaining and balanced match to watch between two these two quite big teams by the 2. Bundesliga standards. 1-1 is the most probable final score. The top-2 teams are promoted to the Bundesliga directly. The team that finishes in 3rd place has a chance to defeat a Bundesliga team, consequently earning a place in the first tier. I see both teams having some chance of being promoted as only a little more than 50% half the matches have been played. Hertha Berlin have scored 36 goals and have conceded 31 goals. Their number of expected goals xG is a little higher though. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 28.99. 

The visitors have a fine 34 points to their account and their number of xPTS is 31.87. Their score difference is 38:26 and their number of xG is 35.77 and xGA 25.67. With the expected lineups they have a narrow edge over the hosts in terms of both offensive and defensive quality. However, taking the home advantage into account – I see this match as a coin toss – a 50/50 game without a favourite. The bookies see the visitors as solid favourites – offering them odds of only about 2.25. With these odds the Hertha Berlin +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here! Hertha beat Hamburger SV 4-3 after penalties when the teams last locked horns in a DFB Pokal clash on the 6th of December 2023. Hertha deserved to win as they generated more in xG – 2.97-2.54 to be precise. Both teams lost their last game. Hertha were the better team against Kaiserslautern at home in a DFB Pokal game but lost 1-3. Hertha had 60% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (17-10), shots on goal, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 1.87-0.75. Hamburger SV, on the other hand, lost to Karlsruher 3-4 at home as big favourites, priced around 1.55 to win by the bookies. They had 59% ball possession but the visitors recorded more in xG – 2.98-2.65. Hamburger SV looked very vulnerable defensively in this battle..

柏林赫塔VS汉堡SV

柏林赫塔主场迎战汉堡SV。北京时间周日凌晨，德甲第20轮比赛将在奥林匹亚球场进行。这个联赛是世界上最好的二级联赛之一。许多球队都有相当大的体育场和大量的观众。奥林匹亚体育场的最大容量约为7.5万人。我希望这场比赛的气氛会很好。主场球迷为东道主提供了巨大的推动力!事实上，这里的主场优势是巨大的。赫塔本赛季在奥林匹亚球场踢得很好。他们在9场比赛中只输了2场，他们在主场的比分差距非常大——准确地说是21:9 !足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的高水平比赛。柏林赫塔在上个赛季德甲表现不佳后被降级。然而，他们在期望分数(xPTS)方面也很不走运。不可否认，他们本赛季的表现令人失望。他们目前在积分榜上排名第十。他们已经拿到了26分。然而，它们的xpt数量要高得多——准确地说是30.11个。即便如此，我还是从季前赛的深度分析中略微降低了他们的能量评级。目前，他们在这个排名中排名第五，这个排名说明了球队的纯粹等级——不包括动机因素和可能的疲劳——由高强度的比赛日程引起的。共有18个俱乐部参加这个联赛。访客在这个排名中排名第四。我还想提一下，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，汉堡SV队的身价仅略高于东道主，分别为4600万欧元和4300万欧元。这应该是一场有趣而平衡的比赛，两支相当强大的球队之间的比赛。德甲的标准。1比1是最有可能的最终比分。排名前2的球队将直接升入德甲。排名第三的球队有机会击败德甲球队，从而获得第一梯队的席位。我认为两支球队都有一些晋级的机会，因为只有一半多一点的比赛已经打完了。柏林赫塔进了36球，丢了31球。不过，他们的预期目标xG略高一些。他们的预期进球数(xGA)是28.99。

访问者的帐户上有34分，他们的xPTS数量为31.87。他们的得分差为38:26,xG的数量为35.77,xGA的数量为25.67。凭借预期的阵容，他们在进攻和防守质量方面都比东道主略胜一筹。然而，考虑到主场优势，我认为这场比赛就像抛硬币一样，是一场50/50的比赛，没有最喜欢的一方。博彩公司认为客队是大热门，开出的赔率只有2.25。在这样的赔率下，柏林赫塔+0.5球的赔率显然是明智的赌注!赫塔在点球大战中以4-3击败汉堡SV，这是两队在2023年12月6日德国足协波卡尔杯的最后一场交锋。赫塔应该赢得比赛，因为他们在比赛中创造了更多的进球——准确地说，是2.97-2.54。两队都输了最后一场比赛。赫塔在主场对阵凯泽斯劳滕的比赛中表现更好，但以1-3输掉了比赛。赫塔有60%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(17-10次)、射正、射偏、进攻和危险进攻。xG值为1.87 ~ 0.75。另一方面，汉堡SV在主场以3-4不敌卡尔斯鲁厄，成为夺冠热门，博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.55。他们有59%的控球率，但客队在xG - 2.98-2.65时的控球率更高。汉堡SV在这场战斗中看起来防守很脆弱。