IRAN - JAPAN

Japan is for me the main favorite to win the title at the moment.

Iran is coming from a very difficult game in the ¼ finals against Syria, where they drew 1:1 in the regular time and had to qualify in the penalties shootout. Important player Mehdi Taremi, who has scored 3 goals in the tournament, received a red card and won’t be available for this fixture.

He is a very important absence because is one of the best players in the Iranian team, but also his red card was important because it forced Iran to play more than 30 minutes with 10 players, so will have fatigue here as only had two days to prepare for this fixture.

Iran in the recent games struggled to convert the chances. They also look far from solid at the back and although they have a good attack, the absence of Taremi will affect them a lot. I also believe that they won't be able to control the midfield, and at some point of the game they will lose the control, converting their team into two separate points: attack and defense. They dont have the organisation as a team that Japan has.

On the other hand, Japan is in excellent form. They already made a great World Cup in 2022 beating Spain and Germany, and also had very good preparation for this tournament with friendlies against strong teams like Germany (4:1) or Turkey (4:2) during 2023.

They have shown a very strong attack with 12 goals scored in 4 games, thanks to the quality of top players like Take Kubo or Ueda, who has scored 4 goals so far.

Japan has been since the beginning the main favorite to win the title and during the tournament they have shown why: they are the best team in the AFC Cup 2024. Have the best squad, experience and quality.

I’m expecting a game where Iran will set up a defensive system, but without Taremi will struggle to make the counters properly and be effective upfront. They won’t have too many chances to score here. For Japan it won't be a new situation to play against a defensive team, and they have the pace needed upfront to dribble and generate chances against defensive teams, as they did during the tournament.

Also Japan will have less fatigue: they had an easy game against Bahrain, where they won 3:1 and controlled the match. They are also stronger in squad depth to afford this game with only 2 days of rest.

I expect Japan to win this fixture against an Iranian team who will be dominated, will have more fatigue and less quality in their squad with the absence of their best player and topscorer.

VALENCIA - ALMERIA

Valencia is having a fantastic season. With a very young team, they are playing very well and full of confidence. They have won 4 of the last 5 games, losing last weekend against Atletico Madrid.

Coach Baraja managed to build a very competitive team, with a lot of pace, a solid defense and very effective upfront. The young players have a lot of confidence and are scoring great goals, as are trying shots outside the box and making things that won’t be able to do in normal situations, as they have very little experience. But confidence is key and Valencia is demonstrating it.

Against weak-relegation teams like Almeria they made good performances, beating Cadiz (1:4) or Granada (1:0) for example. At home are coming from important victories against strong teams like Athletic (1:0) or Villarreal (3:1), whilst also achieving a draw 1:1 against Barcelona.

But Almeria is also a good reason for this pick. Current bottom of the league, one of the worst teams in the top leagues at the moment: winless after 21 rounds, 49 goals conceded and 16 defeats. Playing away it’s even worse: 10 defeats and 1 draw in 11 games.

Coach tried to change the system and be more defensive lately, which improved the performance of the team (although continued without positive results), but the last weekend game against Alaves showed that all of this was a mirage: a weak team who just defended managed to make three goals in three counters. Very easy for Alaves, who won 0:3.

That game was the certification that this team is dead. Are lacking quality, confidence, and it’s impossible for them to keep the goal to nil and be competitive during 90 minutes.

They have made some transfers which have been included in the list for this match (Choco Lozano, Brunio Langa), but they almost did no training with the team and aren’t very good players so I don't expect them to have a huge impact in this game.

Valencia has much more quality and confidence, and will dominate this match. Hosts have been very effective during the season and guests made many mistakes in defense, so I see Valencia able to score 1 or 2 goals here. I honestly don’t see how Almeria can win a game. Of course they’ll do it, someday somehow, but their season has been a disaster and as a team, they have zero arguments to win a match in normal circumstances.

伊朗-日本

对我来说，日本是目前夺冠的最大热门。

伊朗队在1 / 4决赛中与叙利亚队进行了一场非常艰难的比赛，他们在常规时间1:1战平，并在点球大战中晋级。在联赛中打进3球的重要球员塔雷米收到红牌，本场比赛将无法上场。

他的缺席是非常重要的，因为他是伊朗队中最好的球员之一，但他的红牌也很重要，因为这迫使伊朗队在10名球员的情况下打了30多分钟，所以他在这里会很疲劳，因为只有两天的时间来准备这场比赛。

在最近的比赛中，伊朗一直在努力抓住机会。他们在后防线上看起来也很不稳定，尽管他们有很好的进攻，塔雷米的缺席会对他们造成很大的影响。我也相信他们将无法控制中场，在比赛的某些时候他们会失去控制，把他们的球队变成两个独立的点:进攻和防守。他们没有日本那样的团队组织。

另一方面，日本的状态非常好。他们已经在2022年世界杯上击败西班牙和德国取得了伟大的成绩，并且在2023年与德国(4:1)或土耳其(4:2)等强队的友谊赛中也做了很好的准备。

他们在4场比赛中打进了12个进球，这要归功于像久保武和上田这样的顶级球员，他们目前已经打进了4个进球。

从一开始，日本队就一直是夺冠热门，在本届世界杯期间，他们已经证明了原因:他们是2024年亚足联杯的最佳球队。拥有最好的阵容，经验和实力。

我预计这场比赛伊朗将建立一个防守体系，但没有塔雷米将很难正确地反击，并在前场发挥作用。他们在这里不会有太多得分的机会。对于日本队来说，与防守球队比赛并不是什么新鲜事，他们有足够的速度来带球并创造机会，就像他们在比赛中所做的那样。

日本队也不会那么疲劳:他们在与巴林队的比赛中轻松取胜，3:1获胜并控制了比赛。他们的阵容深度也更强，可以在只有两天休息的情况下承受这场比赛。

我希望日本队能赢得这场比赛，他们将会被统治，他们的阵容将会更加疲劳，缺少他们最好的球员和最佳射手。

瓦伦西亚-阿尔梅里亚

瓦伦西亚正在经历一个梦幻般的赛季。这是一支非常年轻的球队，他们踢得很好，充满了信心。他们在最近的5场比赛中赢了4场，上周末输给了马德里竞技。

教练巴拉哈设法建立了一支非常有竞争力的球队，节奏很快，防守稳固，前场非常有效。年轻球员们很有信心，打进了很多伟大的进球，他们在禁区外尝试射门，创造了一些在正常情况下无法做到的事情，因为他们没有多少经验。但信心是关键，瓦伦西亚正在证明这一点。

面对像阿尔梅里亚这样的弱级球队，他们表现出色，比如击败加的斯(1:4)和格拉纳达(1:0)。在主场，他们战胜了像竞技(1:0)和比利亚雷亚尔(3:1)这样的强队，同时也1:1战平了巴塞罗那。

但阿尔梅里亚也是这个选择的好理由。目前联赛垫底，是目前顶级联赛中表现最差的球队之一:21轮无胜，丢49球16负。在客场比赛就更糟糕了:11场比赛10负1平。

最近教练试图改变阵型，加强防守，这提高了球队的表现(尽管没有取得积极的结果)，但上周末对阵阿拉维斯的比赛表明，这一切都是海市蜃楼:一支刚刚防守的弱队在三次反击中取得了三球。对阿拉维斯来说很容易，他以0:3获胜。

那场比赛证明了这支球队已经完蛋了。他们缺乏质量和信心，他们不可能在90分钟内保持零进球并保持竞争力。

他们的一些转会(洛萨诺和兰加)已经列入了本场比赛的名单，但是他们几乎没有随队训练，也不是很优秀的球员，所以我不认为他们会对本场比赛产生太大的影响。

瓦伦西亚有更多的实力和信心，他们将主宰这场比赛。主队在本赛季表现非常出色，客队在防守上犯了很多错误，所以我认为瓦伦西亚在这里能进1到2个球。说实话，我不明白阿尔梅里