In my perspective, Japan has a strong chance of winning this game and qualifying for the Asian Cup semifinals.

The Japanese squad has a significant mental advantage heading into this game, having defeated Iran 3:0 in the semifinals of the previous Asian Cup.

Both teams played their last match three days ago, but Iran won against Syria after 120 minutes and penalty kicks. In contrast, Japan easily defeated Bahrain in 90 minutes. For sure, freshness is on their side, which should make a major difference today.

Both teams' backlines are not rock-solid. Iran has conceded at least one goal in three of its four matches, while Japan has failed to keep a clean sheet in all four, yet they appear to be better than Iran based on the expected goals conceded model. Iran conceded three goals, although the model predicted they should concede 3.20. Japan surrendered 6 goals despite the fact that the same model predicted only 2.15!

Japanese teams have incredible firepower. They scored more than two goals in three of the four games in the current Asian Cup. They perhaps have the most dangerous offensive formation in the entire competition. Iran presently has a significant team problem. Their top player (according to ratings), Mehdi Taremi, is suspended. It is a major blow considering he is also the team's leading scorer and assistant. That should have a significant negative influence on Iran's performance in an attack.

Japan has a better team, and this should be evident on the pitch today.

在我看来，日本队很有可能赢得这场比赛，并晋级亚洲杯半决赛。

日本队在本届亚洲杯半决赛中以3:0击败伊朗队，在这场比赛中具有明显的心理优势。

两队在三天前进行了最后一场比赛，但伊朗在120分钟和点球大战中战胜了叙利亚。相反，日本队在90分钟内轻松击败了巴林队。当然，新鲜感是他们的优势，这应该会给今天带来很大的不同。

两支球队的后防线都不是坚如磐石。伊朗队在四场比赛中有三场至少失球，日本队在四场比赛中都未能保持零失球，但根据预期失球模型，他们似乎比伊朗队要好。伊朗队丢了3个球，尽管该模型预测他们应该丢3.2个球。日本丢了6个球，尽管同样的模型预测只有2.15个!

日本队拥有令人难以置信的火力。本届亚洲杯的4场比赛中，他们有3场进球超过2球。他们可能拥有整个比赛中最危险的进攻阵型。伊朗目前有一个严重的团队问题。他们的头号球员(根据收视率)Mehdi Taremi被禁赛。考虑到他也是球队的头号得分手和助理，这是一个重大打击。这应该会对伊朗在袭击中的表现产生重大的负面影响。

日本队的实力更强，这在今天的比赛中应该是显而易见的。