Newcastle Jets VS Melbourne Victory

Newcastle Jets welcome Melbourne Victory for this Australian A-League round 15 clash at McDonald Jones Stadium Saturday afternoon Beijing time. This is the first tier of Australian football. Australia did surprisingly well in the last World Cup in Qatar 2022 – qualifying for the Playoffs but lost to the eventual World Champions, Argentina, 1-2. However, the level of this league is relatively low by international standards. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind, can expect a match of pretty mediocre level by this league's standards here. Last season Newcastle Jets finished in 10th place – and Melbourne Victory in 11th place – in this league with a total of 12 clubs. Not that much has changed for this season in terms of pure class. Newcastle currently occupy the 10th place in the standings. They have 16 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is higher – 18.87 to be precise. Their offense has been quite okay so far this season – they have netted the ball 24 times. For example Wellington Phoenix, who currently top the standings, have scored only two more goals. They do not have the biggest names in the offense but have a solid offensive structure. The midfielders also actively take part in attacking. They have not been lucky or unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). Melbourne City, on the other hand, have scored 27 goals but their number of xG is 25.78. With the expected lineups they have only a narrow edge over the hosts in this area of the game. The visitors have played much better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis – no denying that. However, they have, as a result, become overvalued on the betting market and we must oppose them. They currently have 26 points to their account but their number of xPTS is 23.09.Their defence is unarguably more solid than the hosts'. However, their defenders, too, make quite a few individual mistakes and are sometimes surprisingly vulnerable to fast counter attacks. I also want to mention that many of their defenders and midfielders have played above their normal level so far. This most probably will not go on for the rest of the season.

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Melbourne Victory are only marginally the bigger team here. Indeed, their squad has an estimated market value of around 7.70 million euros. The hosts' players have a total market value of about 6.70 million. The visitors do have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game – but the difference in class between two teams is much smaller than the standings would suggest. The biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets from customers offer the visitors odds of around 1.95 to win at the time of writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time. This is, based on my strongly data-based expert analysis, clearly too low. Newcastle Jets with the +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here. My fans and I have a 60.50% chance of winning - once again – betting on this game. The hosts have won one and lost one of their last two games. In their most recent match they were unlucky and lost to Wellington Phoenix 1-2 at home. They had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks (113-52) and dangerous attacks. The visitors did, however, generate marginally more in xG – 1.90-1.87. Before this they were strong at home – beating Brisbane Roar 3-1 at home. The hosts' Piscopo even missed a penalty in the 25th minute. Newcastle Jets generated 3.21 in xG – the visitors' number was only 1.12. Brisbane's O'Shea was sent off in the 45+4 minute but the score was 1-0 at this point and the hosts were playing well! Melbourne Victory have played three 1-1 draws in row. In their last game they faced Sydney FC at home as solid favourites according to the bookies – priced around 2.10 to win. They had 67% ball possession but both teams recorded four shots on goal. The xG numbers were – 1.34-1.23 in the hosts' favour. Before this they faced Wellington Phoenix away from home as solid favourites and did - once again - have a high ball possession % but lacked some offensive creativity.. On the 13th of January Melbourne Victory faced Central Coast Mariners at a neutral location as narrow favourites on the betting market. It was a pretty balanced clash but the Mariners did generate more in xG – 1.67-1.15.

纽卡斯尔喷气机队VS墨尔本胜利

北京时间周六下午，纽卡斯尔喷气机队将在麦当劳琼斯体育场迎来澳大利亚a联赛第15轮对阵墨尔本胜利队。这是澳大利亚足球的第一梯队。澳大利亚队在2022年卡塔尔世界杯上的表现出人意料地出色，获得了进入季后赛的资格，但最终以1比2输给了最终的世界冠军阿根廷队。但是，按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平相对较低。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润，可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看相当平庸的比赛。上赛季纽卡斯尔喷气机队在联赛中排名第10位，墨尔本胜利队排名第11位，总共有12家俱乐部。就纯粹的等级而言，本赛季并没有太大的变化。纽卡斯尔目前在积分榜上排名第十。他们的口袋里有16分。然而，它们的期望值(xPTS)更高——准确地说是18.87。本赛季到目前为止，他们的进攻还不错，他们已经24次进球。例如，目前排名第一的惠灵顿菲尼克斯队只多进了两个球。他们在进攻端没有大牌，但有一个稳固的进攻结构。中场球员也积极参与进攻。就预期目标而言，他们既不幸运也不不幸。而墨尔本队虽然打进27球，但进球数只有25.78个。在预期的阵容下，他们在这方面只比东道主有微弱的优势。客队的表现比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好得多，这是不可否认的。然而，结果是它们在博彩市场上被高估了，我们必须反对它们。目前他们的账户上有26个点，但他们的xPTS数量是23.09。毫无疑问，他们的防守比东道主更加稳固。然而，他们的后卫也犯了不少个人错误，有时在面对快速反击时令人惊讶地不堪一击。我还想提一下，到目前为止，他们的许多后卫和中场球员的表现都超出了他们的正常水平。这种情况很可能不会在本赛季剩下的时间里持续下去。

根据德国知名知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，墨尔本胜利队在这里只是稍强一些。事实上，这支球队的市场价值估计在770万欧元左右。东道主球员的总市值约为670万美元。客队在比赛的各个方面都比主队有优势，但两队之间的等级差距比排名所显示的要小得多。在北京时间周五晚上撰写这篇预告时，接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司为游客提供的赔率约为1.95。根据我以数据为基础的专家分析，这显然太低了。纽卡斯尔喷气机队的+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的选择。我和我的粉丝有60.50%的机会赢——再一次——赌这场比赛。东道主最近两场比赛一胜一负。在最近的一场比赛中，他们运气不佳，主场1-2不敌惠灵顿菲尼克斯队。他们有57%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、攻击次数(113胜52负)和危险攻击。然而，访问者在xG - 1.90-1.87中确实产生了稍微多一点的结果。在此之前，他们在主场3-1击败了布里斯班咆哮队。东道主的皮斯科普甚至在第25分钟错失了一个点球。纽卡斯尔喷气机队在上个赛季创造了3.21个进球，而客队的数字只有1.12个。布里斯班的奥谢在45+4分钟被罚下，但此时比分是1-0，东道主踢得很好!墨尔本胜利队连续三场1-1战平。在他们的上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对悉尼FC，根据博彩公司的说法，他们是最受欢迎的球队，胜率约为2.10英镑。他们有67%的控球率，但两队都有4次射门。对东道主有利的xG值为- 1.34-1.23。在此之前，他们在客场面对威灵顿菲尼克斯队，他们的控球率很高，但缺乏进攻创造力。1月13日，墨尔本胜利队在一个中立的地点面对中央海岸水手队，在博彩市场上有微弱的胜算。这是一场相当平衡的比赛，但水手队在1.67-1.15的比赛中确实创造了更多的机会。