Peterborough United VS AFC Wimbledon

Peterborough and AFC Wimbledon lock horns this EFL Trophy quarter-finals clash at Weston Homes Stadium early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The visitors play in League Two, the third tier of English football. This is clearly the best fourth tier in the world. The players are full time professionals. The hosts, on the other hand, play in League One. In both leagues most teams play quite physical, "traditional English" football and players are expected to fight hard for every ball and never give up. I want to highlight that the difference between League One and Two is not substantial.. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty good level by this competition's standards. Both teams are having a strong season so far. The hosts are currently in 3rd place in League One. However, we must realize that they have had a lot of luck on their side this season. Last season they finished in 6th place after the regular season. They have grabbed a total of 56 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 49.54 points. I expect them to drop down in standings as the season progresses.. They are in 6th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class excluding motivation factors as well as possible fatigue – caused by a busy match schedule. The hosts offense is strong and – of course also have an edge over the visitors in terms of defensive quality. Peterborough have netted the ball 54 times in League One but this is misleading. Their number of expected goals is "only" 47.45. Their defence is pretty good - but can be vulnerable to fast counter attacks. This is something Wimbledon are good at! They will probably defend very hard here – mainly relying on counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks or a possible penalty to score here. Of course we do not need them to score to win - once again - with the recommended +1.5 goals handicap option.

The hosts have allowed 29 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 31.98. Peterborough have won three of their last five games. However, they have not won any of their last 10 games by a margin of more than one goal! In their Last game they faced Lincoln away from home as very clear favourites - priced around 1.85 to win. They were very disappointing despite the 70% ball possession. Lincoln even recorded more goal attempts – 11-9. They also generated more in xG – 0.84-0.28. Before this they beat Crawley, a team that play in League Two, 2-1 at home as big favourites according to the bookies. However, the visitors had 56% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal, attacks (114-59) and dangerous attacks. Both teams had 13 goal attempts. AFC Wimbledon are in 8th place in League Two with 44 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is 47.56. Their score difference is 44:34 and they have been unlucky in terms of both xG and xGA! They have a strong chance of being promoted to League One for the next season. In their last game they defeated Mansfield 2-1 at home. Wimbledon had 58% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal (5-1), goal attempts (19-5) attacks (130-94) and dangerous attacks. They generated 0.98 in xG – the visitors managed 0.18. They can improve even further as the season progresses! I trust their manager a lot in terms of tactics in this challenging game..

彼得堡联队VS温布尔登亚足联

北京时间周三凌晨，彼得伯勒和温布尔登将在韦斯顿主场进行联赛杯四分之一决赛。客队在乙级联赛踢球，这是英国足球的第三级联赛。这显然是世界上最好的第四梯队。这些球员都是全职的专业人士。另一方面，东道主在英甲踢球。在这两个联赛中，大多数球队踢的都是身体对抗的“传统英式”足球，球员们被要求为每一个球拼搏，永不放弃。我想强调的是，英甲和英乙之间的差别并不大。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以这项比赛的标准来看相当不错的比赛。到目前为止，这两支球队的赛季表现都很好。东道主目前在英甲排名第三。然而，我们必须意识到他们本赛季有很多运气。上个赛季常规赛结束后，他们只排在第6位。他们总共拿到了56分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)“只有”49.54分。我预计他们的排名会随着赛季的进展而下降。他们在我的力量排名中排名第六，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，不包括动机因素和可能的疲劳-由繁忙的比赛日程引起的。主队的进攻很强大，当然在防守质量上也比客队有优势。彼得伯勒在联赛中有54次进球，但这是误导。他们的预期目标“只有”47.45个。他们的防守很好，但是在快速反击面前很脆弱。这是温布尔登的强项!他们在这里可能会非常努力地防守——主要依靠反击、角球、任意球或可能的点球来得分。当然，我们不需要他们进球就能赢球——再一次——推荐+1.5个进球障碍选项。

东道主已经丢了29个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是31.98个。彼得伯勒在最近五场比赛中赢了三场。然而，他们在过去的10场比赛中没有赢过一球以上的比赛!在他们上一场客场对阵林肯的比赛中，他们是非常明显的夺冠热门——胜率在1.85左右。尽管有70%的控球率，他们还是非常令人失望。林肯甚至以11比9的战绩取得了更多的进球。它们在xG - 0.84-0.28中也产生了更多。在此之前，他们在主场2-1击败了克劳利，这是一支英乙球队，根据博彩公司的说法，他们是最大的热门球队。然而，客队有56%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门、进攻(114比59)和危险进攻。两队都有13次射门机会。温布尔登在英乙联赛中以44分排名第8。他们的xPTS数是47.56。他们的比分差距是44:34，他们在xG和xGA方面都很不走运!他们下赛季很有可能升入英甲。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场2-1击败了曼斯菲尔德。温布尔登的控球率为58%，射门次数(5比1)、射门次数(19比5)、进攻次数(130比94)和危险进攻次数(19比5)也更多。他们在xG中产生了0.98，而客队只产生了0.18。随着赛季的进行，他们可以进一步提高!在这场充满挑战的比赛中，我非常信任他们的教练的战术。