Morocco VS South Africa

Morocco and South Africa lock horns in this Africa Cup of Nations 1/8-finals battle at Stade Laurent Pokou in San Pédro early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The level of this tournament is relatively high by international standards – but still far from the level of the European Championships. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better than average level by this tournament's standards. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Morocco are definitely the better team here. They definitely have an edge over South Africa in all areas of the game. The important question is how much better they are.. Most football fans probably still remember the excellent run Morocco had at the World Cup in Qatar in 2022. They went all the way to the semi-finals where they had no genuine chance to beat France who had way too much individual skill for Morocco to deal with. On their way to the semi-finals they defeated Spain and Portugal. However, we must not be fooled by these results. Yes, Morocco defended in a very organized way in both games but were definitely not the better team on the pitch. They had, in all honesty, quite a lot of luck on their side. I am convinced that their awesome run in Qatar still affects the odds too much here.. Morocco are in 13th place in the FIFA ranking. This is, in my expert analysis, totally unrealistic! In reality they should be ranked in around 26-28th place. South are in the 66th place but I would say that around 60th would be a more accurate place in the ranking for them. In their last game Morocco beat Zambia as big favourites on the betting market. Indeed, they were priced around 1.55 win. However, they struggled to break Zambia's defence. They did defend well but Zambia were pretty lame offensively in this game. Yes, they did record 11 goal attempts but most of these attempts had a pretty low expected goal (xG) number. South Africa are, however, a better team than Zambia! Before this Morocco were disappointing. Indeed, it was a 1-1 draw against D.R Congo. Morocco were very clear favourites in this game – priced around 1.70 to win on the betting market. Even so, they generated just 0.94 in expected goals (xG). D.R Congo managed 1.65. Before this they comfortably beat Tanzania 3-0 but as huge favourites but Zambia were extremely bad in this game. 

South Africa, on the other hand, have played better than I would have expected before the tournament started. The bookies should respect them more! In the opening round they lost to Mali 0-2 but the match was very balanced as a whole. South Africa had 55% ball possession but Mali recorded one more shot on goal (7-6). South Africa recorded more corner kicks, total passes and completed passes. Mali generated a little more in xG – 1.67-1.62. In their last game South Africa played well against Tunisia as clear underdogs – priced around 4.00 to win. It was a very balanced clash and no goals were scored. South Africa recorded more attacks but Tunisia had 55% ball possession. Both teams had 11 goal attempts and the xG numbers were 0.65-0.64 in Tunisia's favour. Before this Namibia were excellent and crushed Namibia 4-0 after a great offensive performance! They recorded eight goal attempts – Namibia managed only one. The xG numbers were 2.54-0.52. I expect South America to defend in an organized way and to be quite physical here - keeping this match closer than the odds offered by the bookies suggest. They will not probably change their tactics significantly even if they were to end up trailing by a margin of one goal.. We will take the +1.5 handicap option here. Odds of around 1.50 are widely available at the time of posting. The chance of winning once again is 74%!

摩洛哥VS南非

北京时间周三凌晨，摩洛哥和南非队将在非洲杯1/8决赛中在圣帕萨姆德罗的洛朗波库球场展开激战。按照国际标准，这次比赛的水平相对较高，但与欧洲杯的水平还有很大差距。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场高于本届锦标赛平均水平的比赛。毫无疑问，摩洛哥在本届世界杯上绝对是一支更好的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都比南非队有优势。重要的问题是他们有多好……大多数球迷可能还记得摩洛哥在2022年卡塔尔世界杯上的出色表现。他们一路杀入半决赛，在那里他们没有真正的机会击败法国队，因为法国队的个人技术让摩洛哥难以对付。在进入半决赛的路上，他们击败了西班牙和葡萄牙。然而，我们不能被这些结果所愚弄。是的，摩洛哥在两场比赛中的防守都非常有组织，但在球场上绝对不是更好的球队。老实说，他们有相当多的运气。我相信他们在卡塔尔的出色表现仍然会影响这里的赔率。摩洛哥在国际足联排名中排名第13位。根据我的专家分析，这是完全不现实的!实际上，他们应该排在26-28位左右。韩国排在第66位，但我想说，对他们来说，排名在第60位左右更准确。在上一场比赛中，摩洛哥击败了赞比亚，成为博彩市场上的大热门。事实上，其定价在1.55韩元左右。然而，他们很难突破赞比亚的防线。他们的防守做得很好，但是赞比亚在这场比赛中的进攻很差劲。是的，他们确实记录了11次进球尝试，但这些尝试中的大多数都有相当低的预期进球(xG)数。然而，南非队比赞比亚队更强!在此之前，摩洛哥的表现令人失望。事实上，与刚果民主共和国的比赛是1-1战平。在这场比赛中，摩洛哥是非常明显的热门球队，在博彩市场上的胜率在1.70左右。即便如此，他们只产生了0.94的预期目标(xG)。刚果民主共和国获得1.65。在此之前，他们以3比0轻松击败了坦桑尼亚，但作为大热门，赞比亚在这场比赛中表现非常糟糕。

另一方面，南非队的表现比我在比赛开始前预期的要好。博彩公司应该更尊重他们!在首轮比赛中，他们0-2不敌马里，但比赛整体上是非常平衡的。南非的控球率为55%，但马里的射门次数多了一次(7比6)。南非的角球次数、总传球次数和完成传球次数都有所增加。在xG - 1.67-1.62中，Mali生成了更多。在上一场比赛中，南非队在对阵突尼斯的比赛中表现出色，显然处于劣势，他们的胜率在4.00左右。这是一场势均力敌的比赛，双方没有进球。南非的进攻次数更多，但突尼斯的控球率为55%。两队都有11次进球尝试，xG值为0.65-0.64，突尼斯队获胜。在此之前，纳米比亚表现出色，在出色的进攻表现后，他们以4比0击败了纳米比亚!他们有8次射门，而纳米比亚只有1次。xG值为2.54 ~ 0.52。我希望南美能以一种有组织的方式进行防守，并在这里进行身体对抗——让这场比赛比博彩公司给出的赔率更接近。即使他们最终落后一球，他们可能也不会改变他们的战术。我们将采用+1.5的障碍选项。在发布时，大约1.50的赔率是广泛可用的。再次获胜的几率是74%!