Athletic Bilbao VS FC Barcelona

Athletic Bilbao and Barcelona lock horns in this Copa del Rey (Spanish Cup) quarter-finals battle at Estadio San Mamés early Thursday morning Beijing time. Both teams play in the LaLiga, which is the second-best league on the planet. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of top-level by European standards. Who would have expected Athletic Bilbao to have almost the same number of  points as Barcelona after 20 or 21 rounds of play. Indeed, Athletic Bilbao are having a very strong season! They have a fine 41 points in their pocket. They have not been lucky – or unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). Their offense is, in all honesty, not quite top-3 level in this league. Their offensive structure is great but they lack world-class individual skill as well as speed sometimes. They have netted the ball "only" 38 times in LaLiga. Their number of expected goals (xG) is, however, higher – 42.11 to be precise. Their defence has been strong and does not have any obvious weaknesses. They have conceded only 21 goals – this is the third-lowest number in LaLiga. Barcelona definitely have more offensive power than the hosts – but not significantly.. They have scored 40 goals but their number of xG is much higher. Barcelona defended extremely well in La Liga last season but this season their defensive structure has not been great.. Moreover, their defenders have made surprisingly many individual mistakes! They have conceded more goals than the hosts – 24.

The hosts are currently in 5th place in the standings. Barcelona are in third place with 44 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is 42.45. By pure class Barcelona are of course the better team here. However, M. Alonso, Gavi Martinez and their number one goalkeeper ter Stegen are out. Inaki Pena is not a bad goalkeeper but Missing ter Stegen destabilises Barca's defence as a whole - perhaps more than the bookies realise.. Rapinha's situation is questionable at the time of writing this preview. The hosts are without de Marcos - two players are questionable. We must keep in mind home advantage in Spain is bigger on average than in many other big football countries. Athletic Bilbao have historically been an extremely strong team in front of their very loud and loyal (mainly) Basque fans. I need to highlight that they have won eight of the 11 home games in LaLiga this season! What an excellent record! With the expected lineups, taking the home advantage into account I see the hosts as marginal favourites. The bookies disagree and offer Barcelona odds of around 2.45 to take a win during 90 minutes of play. We will take the Bilbao +0.5 goals handicap with a big chance of winning. The hosts have been incredibly strong recently. They have lost just one of their most recent 15 games! This loss came last week away from home against Valencia 0-1. However, Bilbao had 61% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts recorded a little more in xG – though 0.76-0.54 to precise.

Barcelona have won six of their last 11 games. In their last match they beat Betis away from home 4-2 but looked at times surprisingly vulnerable defensively.. Betis recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target and dangerous attacks. Barcelona did generate more in xG but the final score is still misleading. This match was played on Sunday local time so they have had only two full days to recover and prepare. Bilbao played their last game on Saturday so they are expected to be a little more fresh here.. Before the Betis game Barca beat a small team from the third tier, Unionistas, 3-1 away from home but did not impress me!  A. Balde scored the winning goal in the 73rd minute. The xG numbers were 1.16-0.88 in their favour in this cup game. Barcelona were, of course, gigantic favourites in this game on the betting market. Some squad rotation by both teams' coaches would not be a surprise but I do expect the smaller team with much less trophies won in the past, Bilbao, to give a little more emphasis to this cup match..

毕尔巴鄂竞技VS巴塞罗那足球俱乐部

北京时间周四凌晨，毕尔巴鄂竞技队和巴塞罗那队将在西班牙国王杯四分之一决赛中在圣马姆萨斯球场展开激战。两支球队都参加了西甲联赛，这是世界上第二好的联赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以欧洲标准衡量的顶级比赛。谁能想到毕尔巴鄂竞技在20轮或21轮的比赛后得到和巴萨一样多的积分呢?的确，毕尔巴鄂竞技队正在经历一个非常强大的赛季!他们被罚了41分。他们并不幸运——或者从预期积分(xPTS)的角度来看不走运。老实说，他们的进攻在联盟中还算不上前三。他们的进攻结构很棒，但他们缺乏世界级的个人技术和速度。他们在西甲“只”进了38次球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)更高——准确地说是42.11。他们的防守一直很强大，没有任何明显的弱点。他们只丢了21个球，这是西甲第三低的数字。巴萨的进攻能力肯定比东道主强，但也不是很明显。他们进了40个球，但他们的进球数量要高得多。巴塞罗那上赛季在西甲的防守非常好，但本赛季他们的防守结构并不好。此外，他们的后卫犯了很多令人惊讶的个人错误!他们比东道主丢了更多的球——24个。

东道主目前排名第五。巴塞罗那以44分排名第三。他们的xPTS数量是42.45。从纯粹的水平来看，巴塞罗那当然是一支更好的球队。然而，阿隆索、马丁内斯和他们的头号门将特尔·斯特根都缺阵。佩纳不是一个糟糕的门将，但是失去特尔斯特根会破坏巴萨的整体防守——也许比博彩公司意识到的更多。在撰写这篇预告时，Rapinha的情况令人怀疑。东道主没有德马科斯——两名球员都有问题。我们必须记住，西班牙的主场优势比其他许多足球大国都要大。毕尔巴鄂竞技历来是一支非常强大的球队，在他们非常响亮和忠诚的(主要是)巴斯克球迷面前。我需要强调的是，他们本赛季在西甲的11场主场比赛中赢了8场!多么出色的记录啊!考虑到预期的阵容，考虑到主场优势，我认为东道主的夺冠希望不大。博彩公司不同意这一说法，并给出巴萨在90分钟比赛中获胜的赔率约为2.45。我们将利用毕尔巴鄂+0.5个进球的劣势，有很大的机会获胜。东道主最近的表现非常强劲。他们最近15场比赛只输了一场!这场失利发生在上周客场0-1对阵瓦伦西亚的比赛中。然而，毕尔巴鄂有61%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门，进攻和危险进攻。主机在xG中记录了更多——尽管准确地说是0.76-0.54。

巴萨在最近11场比赛中赢了6场。在上一场比赛中，他们客场4-2击败了贝蒂斯，但在防守上却显得出奇的脆弱。贝蒂斯记录了更多的进球尝试、射正、射偏和危险的进攻。巴塞罗那在2009年确实创造了更多的机会，但最终的比分仍然具有误导性。这场比赛是在当地时间周日进行的，所以他们只有整整两天的时间来恢复和准备。毕尔巴鄂在周六进行了他们的最后一场比赛，所以他们在这里会更有活力。在与贝蒂斯的比赛之前，巴萨客场3-1击败了一支来自第三梯队的小球队，Unionistas，但并没有给我留下深刻的印象!A.巴尔德在第73分钟打进致胜一球。在这场杯赛中，对他们有利的xG数字是1.16-0.88。当然，在这场比赛中，巴塞罗那是博彩市场上的大热门。两队教练的阵容轮换并不令人惊讶，但我确实希望过去赢得的奖杯少得多的小球队毕尔巴鄂在这场杯赛上给予更多的重视。