Palmeiras -0.75 or even -1 is a big bet due to very important information.

Palmeiras is the current champion of the Libertadores and the competition remains the main objective of the team, they want the title again. So the main players were rested in the last game to count for the regional championship (Paulista). So the team is at maximum strength for this game and they are very strong to play away. They like to give the ball to the opponent and then exploit their mistakes to go out very fast in counter attack.

The great information has to do with Defensa. They playing with the best 11 players are already much weaker than Palmeiras and everything is worse for this game. They have an outbreak of Covid-19 and are 15 players out and 7 members of the coaching staff. Players usually starters like Meza, Frias, E. Fernandez, R. Rotondi, Pizzini and B. Romero are out. So they are more than half of the usual starters and the worst is that many of the reserves that could play in their places are also out.

Palmeiras are in their best physical condition for this game, they are much stronger, Defensa this with many of the best players out, I can't imagine anything other than the victory of Palmeiras.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

帕尔梅拉斯是解放者队目前的冠军，比赛仍然是球队的主要目标，他们想再次获得冠军。所以主要球员在最后一场比赛中休息，以计算地区冠军(保利斯塔)。所以球队在这场比赛中已经达到了最大的实力，他们在客场的表现非常强大。他们喜欢把球传给对手，然后利用自己的失误在反击中快速出局。

最重要的信息与国防有关。他们和最好的11名球员一起比赛，他们已经比帕尔梅拉斯弱得多，这场比赛的一切都更糟。他们有新冠肺炎的爆发，有15名球员出局，7名教练组成员。通常首发球员如梅扎、弗里亚斯、费尔南德斯、罗通迪、皮齐尼和罗梅罗出局。所以他们的首发人数超过了一般首发人数的一半，而最糟糕的是，许多可以替代他们位置的替补也被淘汰了。

在这场比赛中，帕尔梅拉斯的身体状况是最好的，他们更强大了。在许多最好的球员都离开的情况下，我无法想象除了帕尔梅拉斯的胜利之外还有什么。