In terms of the winners market, surprisingly, Napoli are viewed as favorites, while Fiorentina are the underdogs. I’m saying that this is a bit of a surprise because Napoli have been in terrible form lately. In fact, they have been terrible all season, and that was another shock due to the fact that they came into this season as a defending champion, and their squad is pretty much intact.

Optimism is now a rare commodity in Naples. Of course, the big and perhaps key miss for them is former head coach Luciano Spalletti, and it would appear that he was the one that made all the difference. He decided to step away citing personal reasons, but there was also some tension between him and Napoli’s eccentric club owner Aurelio De Laurentiis. Spanish head coach Rudi Garcia came on as a replacement, but he could not get the job done. Oddly enough, he was fired right after the last meeting between these two teams as Napoli lost to Fiorentina, a home, by 1:3 back in October 2023, and that was the tipping point for De Laurentiis.

Walter Mazzarri stepped in to “replace the replacement”, but he too has failed to right the ship as Napoli have kept on to their inconsistent ways and have already stringed up 7 defeats in the Serie A till the halfway mark. They are currently 8th in the standings, 20 points below leaders Inter, and it’s turning to one of the worst campaigns a defending champion has ever made.

That’s not to mention top-flight newcomers Frosinone humbled Mazzarri’s troops 4-0 in the Coppa Italia in December 2023. As the pressure intensifies on the veteran coach, Napoli might relish this voyage, knowing their last Supercoppa Italiana triumph dates back to 2014, when Qatar hosted the final.

Let’s not dwell on the past. Mazzarri has more pressing matters to address. His men head into the tournament in the midst of a dreadful run of form, winning just three of their last ten competitive outings (D1, L6). If it’s any consolation, Napoli fought back to beat rock-bottom Salernitana 2-1 in their most recent Serie A assignment.

Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia emerged as poster boys as the city celebrated this long-awaited success for months. But Osimhen’s absence due to his international duty with Nigeria is a potentially fatal blow to Napoli’s lofty ambitions. But he’s not the only player unable to feature in the semi-final. Alex Meret, Natan, and Mathias Olivera are in the treatment room.

Mazzarri will have to rely on a false-nine upfront playing Raspadori supported by Kvara and Politano. That’s not a bad forward trio, but it’s not physically imposing by any means. Plus, Kvara has been a shadow of his MVP-season last year.

On the other hand, La Viola reached two cup finals last year. They went all the way to the Europa Conference League final against West Ham, and even took the lead but eventually lost the game. And they also reached the Italian Coppa Final, but had to come up against a strong Inter side and lost that one too.

Unlike their semi-final opposition, La Viola come into the Supercoppa Italiana in high spirits. Except for a gut-wrenching 1-0 defeat at the hands of Sassuolo, Italiano’s high-flyers have gone unbeaten in ten of their last 11 games across all competitions (W7, D3).

This season, they are fighting for a Champions League spot as they are currently 4th in the Serie A standings. If they manage to achieve that, this would be a major success for the club.

Despite a goal-glutted 2-2 draw against Udinese in the build-up to this encounter, Fiorentina can draw confidence from dispatching Bologna from the Coppa Italia quarter-finals on penalties. It was a confirmation of their ability to thrive under the pressure of elimination.

Seeing the current form of both teams and also the absences, I see Fiorentina favorite to qualify here.

在优胜者市场上，令人惊讶的是，那不勒斯被视为最受欢迎的球队，而佛罗伦萨则是不被看好的球队。我是说这有点让人吃惊，因为那不勒斯最近的状态很糟糕。事实上，他们整个赛季都很糟糕，这是另一个令人震惊的事实，因为他们以卫冕冠军的身份进入这个赛季，他们的阵容几乎完好无损。

在那不勒斯，乐观主义现在是一种罕见的商品。当然，对他们来说，最大的，也许是最关键的失误是前主教练卢西亚诺·斯帕莱蒂，他似乎是那个让一切变得不同的人。他以个人原因为由决定离开，但他和那不勒斯古怪的俱乐部老板德劳伦蒂斯之间也存在一些紧张关系。西班牙主教练鲁迪·加西亚替补上场，但他没能完成任务。奇怪的是，在这两支球队最后一次交锋之后，他就被解雇了，那是在2023年10月，那不勒斯以1:3的比分输给了主场的佛罗伦萨，那是德劳伦蒂斯的转折点。

瓦尔特·马扎里(Walter Mazzarri)接替了“接替者”，但他也没能把船转好，因为那不勒斯一直保持着他们不稳定的方式，在意甲联赛中已经连续7场失利。他们目前在积分榜上排名第8，比领头羊国米低20分，这是卫冕冠军有史以来最糟糕的赛季之一。

更不用说在2023年12月的意大利杯上，顶级联赛新人弗罗西诺内4-0击败了马扎里的球队。随着这位经验丰富的教练身上的压力越来越大，那不勒斯可能会享受这次航行，因为他们上一次在意大利超级杯上夺冠要追溯到2014年，当时卡塔尔主办了决赛。

我们不要沉湎于过去。马扎里有更紧迫的事情要处理。他的球队带着糟糕的状态进入锦标赛，在最近的10场比赛中只赢了3场(D1, L6)。如果有什么安慰的话，那就是那不勒斯在最近的意甲比赛中以2-1击败了垫底的萨勒尼塔纳。

维克托·奥西姆恩和克维查·克瓦拉茨斯卡利亚成为了这座城市庆祝这一期待已久的成功的标志性人物。但是奥西姆因在尼日利亚国家队的比赛而缺席对那不勒斯的雄心壮志来说是一个潜在的致命打击。但他并不是唯一一个无缘半决赛的球员。亚历克斯·梅雷特，纳坦和马蒂亚斯·奥利维拉在治疗室。

马扎里将不得不依靠拉斯多里在克瓦拉和波利塔诺的支持下的假九前锋。这不是一个糟糕的前锋三人组，但无论如何，他们的身体素质都不强。此外，科瓦拉在去年的mvp赛季中表现不佳。

另一方面，紫百合去年两次进入杯赛决赛。他们一路杀入欧联杯决赛对阵西汉姆联，甚至一度领先，但最终还是输掉了比赛。他们也进入了意大利杯决赛，但不得不面对强大的国米，也输掉了那场比赛。

与半决赛的对手不同，紫百合带着高昂的斗志来到意大利超级杯。除了0 - 1惨败于萨索洛之外，意大利人的雄心壮志在最近11场比赛中有10场保持不败(W7, D3)。

本赛季，他们正在争夺一个欧冠席位，因为他们目前在意甲排名第四。如果他们能够做到这一点，这将是俱乐部的一个重大成功。

尽管在对阵乌迪内斯的比赛中，佛罗伦萨以2比2战平对手，但在意大利杯1 / 4决赛中，佛罗伦萨可以通过点球淘汰博洛尼亚来获得信心。这证明了他们有能力在被淘汰的压力下茁壮成长。

考虑到两队目前的状态和缺阵的情况，我认为佛罗伦萨最有可能出线。