Looking at the table it is obvious that Girona are clear favourites, so the question is really how big and likely winners they are, and can Almeria be that bad?

Likely lineups:

Let us start with Almeria.

They are at the bottom of the table, still without a win after 19 rounds and that is remarkable. Five points from five draws, 4 at home, but still they have the worst home record of some time with 0-4-5 after nine rounds and a goal difference of 10-18.

The performance data suggests they should have scored 4-5 goals more at home and have 10-11 points, but guess what, that is still the worst amount of expected points xPts in the whole league.

They got kicked out of the cup earlier in January by a 3rd tier club Barbastro, but do these last 5 home matches give any sign of improving form?

Unfortunately not. The only time they have been the better side was against Betis, but in the matches vs Mallorca, Sociedad and Las Palmas they have created worth of one goal of goal expectation in total. In three matches, at home, in total!

There is not much change in their injury situation, but they lost one player to African Cup of Nations, defensive midfielder Baba who is with Ghana.

The gap to survival is 11 points which would be doable if Almeria improve and start winning games, but this does not look like the match where it happens,

Girona have been wonderful! They top the the table along with Real Madrid, and deservedly so. They have also been the best away team so far and are 7-2-0 after 9 away games, with a goal difference of 21-11. The performance data does not give exactly this good numbers, but it is also the weakness of data that it does not recognize the format of winning teams who are good end effective at counters.

In all competitions the last 5 away matches of Girona look like this:

Betis were able to make their life difficult and the draw was a deserved result. At Barcelona they were effective, and away at Vallecano they created gX worth almost 5 goals with their 19 shots!

The team news give no help to Almeria as the only new Girona absentee is Ukrainian winger Tsygankov (3 goals), but as he is replaced by Fernandez (2 goals) he team does not weaken much, and they still have Dovbyk and Savio upfront, the pair who has scored already 16 goals between them in the league. Their absolute key player however is midfielder Aleix Garcia who is likely playing for the bigger Catalunian club next season, if he chooses to do so!

In October Girona won 5-2 at home, then it was Almeria's Baptistao who started the scoring on the first minute, but that joy did not last long.

To summarize, Almeria or quite not this bad as the table shows, but there is nothing to complain about Girona class or form - last week they beat Atletico Madrid 4-3 at home - that I still see Girona winning despite a likely good effort from the home side. As Girona are defensively not 100 % foolproof it may be worth considering the straight win, but I do go for the -1.5 handicap myself.

Good luck!

看看积分榜，赫罗纳显然是大热门，所以问题是他们的实力有多大，夺冠的可能性有多大，阿尔梅里亚能有那么差吗?

可能的阵容:

让我们从阿尔梅里亚开始。

他们在积分榜上垫底，19轮过后仍然没有一场胜利，这很了不起。5平5分，主场4分，但他们的主场战绩仍然是一段时间以来最差的，9轮0胜4负，净胜球10胜18负。

表现数据表明他们本应该在主场多进4-5球，拿到10-11分，但你猜怎么着，这仍然是整个联赛中最糟糕的预期积分。

他们在一月早些时候被三流球队巴巴斯特罗踢出了足总杯，但是最近的5场主场比赛有任何改善的迹象吗?

不幸的是没有。他们唯一一次表现得更好的是对阵贝蒂斯，但在对阵马洛卡、社会和拉斯帕尔马斯的比赛中，他们创造了一个进球的价值。三场比赛，在主场，总共!

他们的伤情没有太大的变化，但是他们在非洲国家杯上失去了一名球员，他是加纳队的后腰巴巴。

如果阿尔梅里亚取得进步并开始赢得比赛，那么与生存的差距是11分，但这看起来不像比赛。

赫罗纳踢得太棒了!他们和皇马一起排在积分榜的首位，这是他们应得的。他们也是迄今为止最好的客场球队，在9场客场比赛中取得了7胜2负的战绩，净胜球为21比11。表现数据并没有给出这么好的数字，但这也是数据的弱点，它没有识别出在反击方面表现出色的获胜球队的格式。

在所有比赛中，赫罗纳的最后5场客场比赛是这样的:

贝蒂斯能够让他们的生活变得困难，平局是一个应得的结果。在巴塞罗那，他们很有效率，而在巴列卡诺，他们19次射门创造了价值近5个进球的gX !

球队的消息对阿尔梅里亚没有任何帮助，因为赫罗纳唯一缺席的是乌克兰边锋茨甘科夫(3球)，但由于他被费尔南德斯(2球)取代，球队并没有太大的削弱，他们仍然有多夫比克和萨维奥，这对搭档已经在联赛中打进16球。他们的关键球员是中场球员亚历克斯·加西亚，如果他愿意的话，下赛季他很可能会为更大的加泰罗尼亚俱乐部效力!

10月，赫罗纳主场5-2获胜，然后是阿尔梅里亚的巴普蒂斯托在第一分钟率先进球，但这种喜悦并没有持续太久。

总而言之，阿尔梅里亚并没有那么糟糕，但是赫罗纳的水平和状态没有什么可抱怨的——上周他们在主场4-3击败了马德里竞技——我仍然认为赫罗纳会赢，尽管主队可能付出了很好的努力。由于赫罗纳的防守不是百分百万无一失，可能值得考虑一下连胜，但我自己确实倾向于-1.5的不利条件。

好运！