Monterrey VS Puebla

Monterrey welcome Pueble for this Liga MX Clausura opening round clash at Estadio BBVA Bancomer  Sunday morning Beijing time.The level of this league is quite high by global standards. This is the first tier of Mexican football. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of much better than average level by this league's standards. To analyse that match and estimate probabilities here we have to take an in-depth look at the Liga MX Apertura that came to an end last November (regular season) – Playoffs games were played in December. Not that much has, after all, changed in a few months.. Monterrey had a pretty disappointing Apertura campaign in the end.. Indeed, they finished in 2nd in this league with a total of 18 clubs after the regular season. They grabbed a fine 33 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was a little lower – 31.04 to be precise. They netted the ball "only" 27 times. For example, Club America, who finished in first place after the regular season, scored 37 – and San Luis – 31 goals. However, Monterrey's number of expected goals (xG) was 28.35. They have many fast, creative and skilled offensive players. Puebla, on the other hand, scored a decent 24 goals. In this area of the game Monterrey do not have a significant edge over the visitors. The Monterrey defence, on the other hand, is unarguably much more solid than that of Puebla. Yes, they are, of course, clear favourites here in front of loud home fans. Even so, their odds of around 1.35 offered on the betting market are massively too low! The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers offer odds of around 1.85 on the Puebla +1.5 goals handicap option. This is way too high based on my strongly data-based, in-depth expert analysis. They have a 62% chance of avoiding losing by a margin of more than one goal.

Puebla are not a very big team in terms of overall financial resources or players' estimated total numbers - according to a pretty reliable source, Transfermarkt.com. They have no really "big names" in the squad but play well as a team and have an excellent coach. Moreover, according to my sources they have a fine team spirit. They finished the Apertura regular season in 5th place, better than I would have expected! They took 25 points and their number of xPTS was 23.98. Their goal difference was 24:25. They will probably do a little worse in Clausura but the bookies should still respect them more! They have lost just one of their six games and have a very solid style of play - which is pretty different at home and on the road.. They will surely defend very hard here – even if they end up trailing by a margin of one goal.. They can, however, be very dangerous on counter attacks! In the Playoffs they faced U.A.N.L Tigres as big underdogs and lost 2-5 on aggregate. However, this score is misleading as they challenged Tigres rather well – especially at home (2-2). Monterrey, on the other hand, were big favourites in the Playoffs against San Luis but lost 1-2. At home they were the much better team on the pitch as a whole but it was a 1-1 draw. In the away game Monterrey were lame and San Luis generated more in xG – 1.12-0.67 and deserved to win. The Monterrey fans were furious and there has been a pretty negative within and around the club after this huge disappointment.. The two teams last locked horns last August and it was a 1-1 draw. Lastly, I want to mention that Monterrey have not beaten Puebla by a margin of more than one goal in any of the last seven head-to-head games!

蒙特雷VS普埃布拉

蒙特雷欢迎普雷布尔参加北京时间周日上午在西班牙对外银行球场举行的西甲联赛首轮比赛。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平是相当高的。这是墨西哥足球的第一梯队。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平好得多的比赛。为了分析这场比赛和估计概率，我们必须深入研究去年11月结束的西甲联赛(常规赛)——季后赛在12月进行。毕竟，几个月来变化不大。蒙特雷最后的Apertura战役相当令人失望。事实上，他们在常规赛结束后以18支球队的总数排名联盟第二。他们得了33分。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)略低，准确地说是31.04。他们“只”射门27次。例如，在常规赛结束后排名第一的美洲俱乐部(Club America)进了37球，圣路易斯队进了31球。然而，蒙特雷的预期进球数(xG)为28.35。他们有很多速度快、有创造力和技术娴熟的进攻球员。另一方面，普埃布拉打进了24球。在这方面的比赛中，蒙特雷队对客队并没有明显的优势。另一方面，蒙特雷队的防守无疑要比普埃布拉队坚固得多。是的，在大声的主场球迷面前，他们无疑是最受欢迎的球队。即便如此，他们在博彩市场上提供的1.35左右的赔率也太低了!接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司提供的普埃布拉+1.5球障碍选项的赔率约为1.85。根据我强有力的基于数据的，深入的专家分析，这个价格太高了。他们有62%的机会避免以1球以上的差距输球。

根据Transfermarkt.com的可靠数据，普埃布拉在整体财务资源和球员总数方面都不是一支非常大的球队。他们的阵容中没有真正的“大牌”，但作为一个团队，他们踢得很好，而且有一位出色的教练。此外，据我所知，他们有很好的团队精神。他们在Apertura常规赛中排名第五，比我预期的要好!他们拿了25分，他们的得分是23.98分。他们的净胜球差是24:25。他们在克劳苏拉的表现可能会稍差一些，但博彩公司仍然应该更尊重他们!他们在六场比赛中只输了一场，他们的打法非常扎实——这在主场和客场是完全不同的。他们肯定会在这里努力防守——即使他们最终落后一球。然而，他们在反击时是非常危险的!在季后赛中，他们面对的是ua.n.l老虎队，但最终以2比5输掉了比赛。然而，这个比分是误导，因为他们挑战老虎相当出色-特别是在主场(2-2)。另一方面，蒙特雷队是季后赛对阵圣路易斯队的大热门，但以1比2输掉了比赛。在主场，他们在球场上整体表现要好得多，但结果是1比1战平。在客场比赛中，蒙特雷表现不佳，而圣路易斯在xG - 1.12-0.67中创造了更多的机会，他们理应获胜。蒙特雷的球迷非常愤怒，在这个巨大的失望之后，俱乐部内部和周围都有相当负面的情绪。两队上次交手是在去年8月，当时是1比1战平。最后，我想提一下，在过去的七场正面交锋中，蒙特雷从未以超过一球的优势击败过普埃布拉!