Chivas Guadalajara VS Santos Laguna

Guadalajara Chivas host Santos Laguna for this Liga MX Clausura opening round clash at Estadio Akron in Zapopan Sunday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is relatively high by global standards. This is the first tier of Mexican football. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better than average level by this league's standards. To analyse that match and estimate probabilities here we have to take a detailed look at the Liga MX Apertura that came to an end last November (regular season) – Playoffs games were played in December. Not that much has changed in a few months. Santos Laguna had a pretty disappointing Apertura campaign. Indeed, they finished in 9th in this league with a total of 18 clubs. They grabbed 23 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was a little lower – 21.34 to be precise. Yes, they have the potential for slight improvement in all areas of the game but probably less than the bookies seem to believe. They netted the ball 31 times – which is a good number. However, their number of expected goals (xG) was much smaller. I do not expect them to score as many goals per game in Clausura as they did in Apertura. Even so, They have many fast and skilled offensive players. However, their defence was leaky in Apertura and it is not realistic to think that these problems would be fixed fast.. They allowed 34 goals – the biggest number in Apertura. Their defensive structure was often very poor, especially in away games. They were often too passive – giving the opponent a chance to control the events on the pitch too much.. I expect Chivas to be aggressive here right from the kick off - putting big pressure on the visitors' error-prone defenders. Santos Laguna were poor on the road in Clausura – losing 5/8 away games – allowing a whopping 20 goals. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts are a much bigger team in terms of players' estimated total market here. Chivas have loud and loyal fans who offer the team a huge boost! 

The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see the hosts as solid favourites. However, the current odds of around 2.15-2.20 on them to win are still way too high! They have a 53.50 % chance of taking all three points! With the expected lineups the hosts unarguably have a substantial edge over the visitors in terms of defensive quality. In terms of offensive quality the teams are more or less equal in my expert opinion. The hosts had a score difference of 22:22 in Apertura. Their number of expected goals (xG) was much bigger though – 25.97. Furthermore, their number of expected goals allowed was only 20.45.. They ended the season in 5th place. In the Playoffs they beat U.N.A.M Pumas in the first leg 1-0 – deserving to win. However, in the 2nd leg the hosts were the better team despite Chivas having 57% ball possession and recording many more attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts defended exceptionally well in this game but Chivas did lack some speed and creativity in offense. The final score, 3-0 is very misleading as the xG numbers were 1.04-0.43. Santos Laguna ended the season with a defeat against Club Leon (2-3) away from home. It was a Play In final clash. The teams who finished in 7-10th place played in the Play In. In their last game – a friendly game against Atlas – they took a 3-2 win but did not really impress me. Once again their defence looked very vulnerable.

瓜达拉哈拉VS桑托斯拉古纳

北京时间周日上午，瓜达拉哈拉芝华士主场迎战桑托斯拉古纳，他们将在萨波潘的阿克伦球场进行西甲联赛首轮比赛。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平是比较高的。这是墨西哥足球的第一梯队。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场高于联赛平均水平的比赛。为了分析这场比赛和估计可能性，我们必须详细分析去年11月结束的西甲联赛(常规赛)——季后赛在12月进行。几个月来变化不大。桑托斯·拉古纳在Apertura上的表现相当令人失望。事实上，他们在这个联赛中排名第9位，共有18家俱乐部。他们拿到了23分。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)略低，准确地说是21.34。是的，他们在比赛的各个方面都有轻微进步的潜力，但可能比博彩公司认为的要少。他们射门31次，这是个不错的数字。然而，他们的预期目标数量(xG)要小得多。我不期望他们在克劳苏拉的场均进球能像在阿珀图拉那样多。即便如此，他们有很多速度快、技术娴熟的进攻球员。然而，他们的防守是漏洞的，认为这些问题会很快得到解决是不现实的。他们丢了34个球，是阿普图拉最多的。他们的防守结构经常很差，尤其是在客场比赛中。他们往往太被动了，给对手太多的机会来控制场上的局势。我希望芝华士从开球开始就有侵略性，给客队容易出错的后卫施加很大的压力。桑托斯拉古纳在克劳苏拉的客场表现很差，客场输掉了5/8，丢了20个球。根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员市场的估计总量来看，东道主的规模要大得多。芝华士拥有响亮而忠诚的球迷，他们为球队提供了巨大的动力!

那些接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司认为东道主是最受欢迎的。然而，目前他们获胜的赔率约为2.15-2.20，仍然太高了!他们有53.50%的机会拿到全部三分!凭借预期的阵容，主队在防守质量方面无疑比客队有很大的优势。在进攻质量方面，两支球队在我的专家意见中或多或少是相等的。东道主在Apertura比赛中有22:22的比分差距。他们的预期进球数(xG)要大得多，为25.97个。此外，他们的预期失球数只有20.45个。他们以第五名结束了这个赛季。在季后赛中，他们在首回合以1-0击败了u.n.a.m.美洲狮队，理应获胜。然而，在第二回合的比赛中，尽管奇华士控球率高达57%，并且有更多的进攻和危险进攻，但主队表现更好。主队在这场比赛中的防守非常出色，但芝华士在进攻端确实缺乏一些速度和创造力。最终比分是3-0，这很容易引起误解，因为xG的数值是1.04-0.43。桑托斯-拉古纳以客场2-3负于莱昂俱乐部结束了本赛季。这是最后一场比赛。7-10名的队伍参加了入围赛。在他们的上一场友谊赛中，他们以3-2战胜了阿特拉斯，但并没有给我留下深刻的印象。他们的防守又一次显得非常脆弱。