Cruz Azul VS Pachuca

Cruz Azul and Pachuca lock horns in this Liga MX Clausura opening round battle at  Estadio Azteca in Mexico City Sunday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is quite high by global standards. This is the first tier of Mexican football. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of slightly better than average level by this league's standards. To analyse that match and estimate probabilities here we have to take a careful look at the Liga MX Apertura that came to an end last November (regular season). Not that much has changed in a couple of months. Cruz Azul had a very disappointing Apertura campaign. Indeed, they finished in 16th in the league with a total of 18 clubs. They took only 17 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was a bit higher. Yes, they have the potential for (some) improvement in all areas of the game but the bookmakers seem to give this potential way too much emphasis here. The hosts had a weak score difference – 21:29 to be precise. Their number of expected goals (xG) was 21.88. Furthermore, their number of expected goals allowed was 28.31. They ended the season with two disappointing defeats. In their most recent match they lost to Puebla as very clear favourites according to the bookies – priced around 1.80 to win. They did generate more in xG than Puebla though. Both teams recorded seven shots on goal. Before this they lost to Chivas 0-1 away from home. Chivas deserved the three points as they had more goal attempts, shots off goal as well as attacks – 66-34. They also generated more in xG – 1.54-0.67.

I expect the hosts to finish better than 17th place in Clausura but still have some obvious weaknesses in their game. The most obvious one is poor defending against fast counter attacks.. I also do not really trust their coach in terms of tactical skill – or as a leader. The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see the hosts as clear favourites. The current odds of around 2.10-2.15 on them to win are way too low! The visitors have an edge over Cruz Azul in all areas of the game. However, the home advantage is pretty big here so the hosts deserve to be marginal favourites here! We will take the visitors with the +0.5 goals handicap option to win once again betting on Mexican football! We easily won both picks yesterday!  I want to highlight that Toluca played much better than the hosts last season. They were very close to making it to the Playoffs – top10 that is. They grabbed a total of 22 points and their number of xPTS was 24.11. They, too, have potential to improve from last season. They finished the Apertura well – losing just one of their last six games. In the last round of play they beat Tijuana 3-2 away from home as pretty clear underdogs on the betting market – priced over 3.00 to win on the betting market. Before this they lost to Monterrey, a strong team, 0-2 but would have deserved at least a point. Indeed, they recorded many more goal attempts (19-9), shots on goal, shots off target, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated more in xG – 1.43-0.60.

克鲁兹-阿祖尔VS帕丘卡

北京时间周日上午，在墨西哥城的阿兹特克球场，阿祖尔和帕丘卡将在西甲联赛的首场比赛中交手。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平是相当高的。这是墨西哥足球的第一梯队。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平略好一点的比赛。为了分析这场比赛和估计可能性，我们必须仔细看看去年11月结束的西甲联赛(常规赛)。几个月来变化不大。克鲁兹·阿苏尔在光圈的表现非常令人失望。事实上，他们总共有18家俱乐部，在联赛中排名第16位。他们只拿了17分。然而，他们的预期点数(xPTS)略高一些。是的，他们在比赛的各个方面都有(一些)改进的潜力，但博彩公司似乎在这里过分强调了这种潜力。东道主的比分差距很小，准确地说是21:29。他们的预期进球数(xG)为21.88。此外，他们的预期失球数为28.31个。他们以两次令人失望的失败结束了这个赛季。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们输给了普埃布拉，根据博彩公司的预测，普埃布拉是非常明显的夺冠热门，赔率约为1.8美元。不过他们在xG的产量确实比普埃布拉多。两队都有7次射正。在此之前，他们客场0-1输给了芝华士。芝华士理应得到三分，因为他们有更多的进球尝试、射偏以及进攻——66比34。它们在xG - 1.54-0.67中也产生了更多。

我希望东道主能比克劳绍拉的第17名表现得更好，但他们在比赛中仍然有一些明显的弱点。最明显的一个就是面对快速反击时防守不力。我也不相信他们的教练的战术技巧，或者作为一个领导者。那些接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司认为东道主显然是最受欢迎的。目前他们获胜的赔率约为2.10-2.15，这太低了!客队在比赛的各个方面都比克鲁兹队有优势。然而，主场优势是相当大的，所以东道主应该在这里被边缘化。我们将带着+0.5个进球障碍选项的游客再次赢得墨西哥足球的赌注!我们昨天轻松地赢得了两张牌!我想强调的是，托卢卡上赛季比东道主打得好得多。他们非常接近进入季后赛，也就是前10名。他们总共拿到了22分，他们的得分为24.11分。与上赛季相比，他们也有进步的潜力。在过去的六场比赛中，他们只输掉了一场。在上一轮比赛中，他们客场3-2击败了蒂华纳，在博彩市场上，他们显然处于劣势——在博彩市场上，他们的胜率超过3.00。在此之前，他们0-2输给了一支强队蒙特雷，但他们至少应该得到一分。事实上，他们的进球次数(19-9)、射正、射偏、进攻和危险进攻都要多得多。它们在xG - 1.43-0.60中也产生了更多。