It’s late call from me, but the odds on the host raised too high and now I see excellent value in Queretaro.

Queretaro had a big mental advantage before this game as they didn’t lose against Toluca in the last 5 consecutive home matches.

In Aprtetura Queretaro looked solid in front of the home crowd as they didn’t lose in 5 of 8 home matches. 18 goals scored in 17 matches maybe doesn’t look amazing, but according to the expected goals scored model they should have scored 21.4.

On the other hand, Toluca had big problems with consistency at the back - they conceded at least one goal in the last 10 matches in a row. I see the continuation of this streak today. In Apertura Toluca played badly on the road - they failed to win in 7 of 8 away league matches.

In those circumstances I really don’t see Toluca as a fav of this game. I don’t agree with market movement. Value is on the home side here.

我打的很晚，但主办者的赔率太高了，现在我看到克雷塔罗的巨大价值。

克雷塔罗在这场比赛之前有很大的心理优势，因为他们在最近的5场主场比赛中没有输给托卢卡。

在4月，克雷塔罗在主场观众面前看起来很稳定，因为他们在8场主场比赛中没有输掉5场。17场比赛打进18球可能看起来并不惊人，但根据预期进球数模型，他们应该打进21.4球。

另一方面，托卢卡在后防线的稳定性上有很大的问题——他们在最近10场比赛中至少丢了一个球。今天我看到了这种势头的延续。在Apertura，托卢卡在客场打得很糟糕，他们在8场客场比赛中有7场没有获胜。

在这种情况下，我真的不认为托卢卡会喜欢这场比赛。我不同意市场走势。这里的价值在主场。