Queretaro FC VS Toluca

Quaretero and Toluca lock horns in this Liga MX Clausura opening round battle at Estadio La Corregidora Saturday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is relatively high by global standards. This is the first tier of Mexican football. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of slightly better than average level by this league's standards. To estimate the probabilities here we have to take a detailed look at the Liga MX Apertura that came to an end a few months ago. Not that much has, after all, changed in a couple months. Neither team made it to the top-10 - failing to make it to the Playoffs. Quaretaro finished in 14th place with 19 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was only 18.55. They had a negative score difference - 18:29 to be precise. Their number of expected goals (xG) was 20.33. Furthermore, their number of expected goals allowed was 27.54. The hosts have avoided a defeat in three of their last games. In their most recent match they took a 1-1 draw against Necaxa in a friendly game. In the last round of Apertura they faced a big team, Monterrey – who finished in 2nd place, at home as underdogs. No goals were scored but Quaretero generated 1.12 in xG – Monterrey managed 0.56.

The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see the visitors as solid favourites at the time of writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time. The current odds of around 2.20 on them to take all three are way too low! The visitors have a narrow edge over the hosts in all areas of the game but we must remember that the home advantage is substantial here! I also want to mention that Toluca have not played any friendlies after last season which is not a good thing ahead of this tight game.. With the expected lineups there is – in my expert opinion – no favourite in this game. Indeed, it is a coin toss. The smart bet is Quaretaro +0.5 goals here! The visitors finished in 12th  place last season with 22 points in their pocket. They had a good score difference of 23:19. Their number of xG was 24.65 and xGA was 22.34.. They finished the season poorly – losing three games in a row. They scored just one goal in these three matches. Way from home they have failed to win any of the last seven games – losing 4/7. They are often way too passive on the road – allowing the opponent to build (too) much pressure in their defence – especially in the second half. In their last game they lost to Mazatlan 0-1 away from home as clear favourites – priced around 2.10 to win on the betting market. The hosts recorded many more goal attempts and shots on target – 5-2. They also generated more in xG – 1.01-0.55. Before this Toluca lost to Santos Laguna 1-3, also away from home. The xG numbers were 2.67-1.66 in the hosts' favour. Lastly I want to mention that I think Toluca's head coach is overrated.

克雷塔罗VS托卢卡

北京时间周六上午，四骑士队和托卢卡队将在西甲联赛的首场比赛中在科雷吉多拉球场展开较量。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平是比较高的。这是墨西哥足球的第一梯队。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平略好一点的比赛。为了估计这种可能性，我们必须详细看看几个月前结束的西甲联赛。毕竟，几个月来并没有太大的变化。两支球队都没有进入前十，也没能进入季后赛。Quaretaro以19分排名第14。然而，他们的期望点数(xPTS)仅为18.55。他们的比分是负的，准确地说是18:29。他们的预期进球数(xG)为20.33。此外，他们的预期失球数为27.54个。东道主在最近的三场比赛中避免了失败。在最近的一场友谊赛中，他们1-1战平了内克萨。在上一轮的Apertura比赛中，他们面对的是一支强大的球队，蒙特雷队，他们在主场以弱者的身份获得了第二名。虽然没有进球，但夸雷特罗在xG比赛中创造了1.12个进球，蒙特雷则创造了0.56个进球。

在北京时间周五晚上撰写这篇预告时，接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司认为访客是可靠的热门。目前的赔率约为2.20，他们三个都拿下的几率太低了!客队在比赛的各个方面都有微弱的优势，但我们必须记住，主场优势在这里是巨大的!我还想提一下，托卢卡在上赛季之后没有打过任何友谊赛，这在这场紧张的比赛之前不是一件好事。从我的专家观点来看，在这场比赛中，没有人会喜欢这样的阵容。事实上，这就像抛硬币一样。明智的选择是Quaretaro +0.5个进球!客队上赛季以22分排在第12位。他们的比分相差23:19。xG为24.65个，xGA为22.34个。他们这个赛季结束得很糟糕，连输三场。他们在这三场比赛中只进了一个球。在主场之外，他们最近7场比赛一场都没赢，7场4负。他们在客场常常过于被动——让对手在防守中制造太多压力——尤其是在下半场。在上一场比赛中，他们客场0-1输给了马萨特兰，他们显然是夺冠热门，在博彩市场上的胜率约为2.10。东道主以5:2的比分取得了更多的进球尝试和射正。它们在xG - 1.01-0.55中也产生了更多。在此之前，托卢卡也在客场1-3输给了桑托斯拉古纳。对东道主有利的xG值是2.67-1.66。最后我想说的是，我认为托卢卡队的主教练被高估了。