Inverness VS Dundee United

Inverness welcome Dundee United for this Scottish Championship round 21 battle at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium early Saturday morning Beijing time. The hosts have played 20 games - and the visitors 19 matches so far. The level of this league is not particularly high by European standards – not even for a second-tier. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of moderately better than average level by this league's standards. The visitors were relegated to this level from the first – after a horrible last season - for this season. They have not fully convinced me so far. However, they are currently in 2nd  place in the standings. A total of 10 clubs play in this league. The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see the hosts only as very favourites at the time of writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time. The current odds of around 1.50 on the away win are clearly too low. With the current odds the obvious smart bet is Inverness with the +1.5 goals handicap option. There is long-term data suggesting that -1.5 goals handicaps – and bigger handicaps in particular – are on average, in the long run, not a good idea to bet on..  Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis they have a 71.50% chance of avoiding losing by a margin of more than one goal. Odds of around 1.50-1.55 are widely available online. The hosts currently occupy the 7th place in the standings with a decent 21 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is higher though - 25.02 to be precise.. Last season they played relatively well - finishing in 6th place with 55 points. They can improve as the season progresses.

Yes, the visitors do have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game but the difference is more narrow than the bookies and many recreational bettors seem to estimate. Dundee United have conceded 10 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is clearly higher – 14.45. The hosts have allowed 24 goals and have a well-structured defence and they fight very hard for every ball – especially at home. For example, Raith, who currently top the standings, have allowed 26 goals. However, the visitors have big firepower - by this league's standards. They have many fast, creative and skilled offensive players in the squad. They have scored 42 goals in this league so far. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 38.43. Inverness have scored 23 goals and do lack some offensive creativity to compete for a top-4 position. They will most probably defend hard here – relying mainly on fast counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks – or a possible penalty to score. They have lost two of their last five games – 0-2 and 1-2. In their game they attacked well – taking a 3-1 away win over Ayr away from home as underdogs on the betting market. Dundee United have not been at their best lately. Indeed, they have won just two of their last five games. In their most recent match they were very disappointing - losing to Morton 2-3 at home as big favourites – priced around 1.40 to win on the betting market!

因弗内斯VS邓迪联队

北京时间周六凌晨，因弗内斯将在苏格兰足球锦标赛第21轮的塔洛克加里多尼亚球场迎接邓迪联队。到目前为止，主队已经打了20场比赛，客队打了19场。以欧洲的标准来看，这个联赛的水平并不是特别高——即使对于二线球队来说也是如此。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平略好一些的比赛。客队在经历了一个糟糕的上个赛季后，本赛季被降级到这个级别。到目前为止，他们还没有完全说服我。然而，他们目前在积分榜上排名第二。共有10个俱乐部参加这个联赛。在北京时间周五晚上撰写这篇预告时，接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司只将东道主视为非常受欢迎的人。目前客场获胜的赔率约为1.50，显然太低了。以目前的赔率来看，显然明智的赌注是因弗内斯的+1.5个进球障碍选项。有长期数据表明，从长远来看，平均而言，1.5个进球的差距——尤其是更大的差距——并不是一个好主意。根据我老练的、以数据为基础的专家分析，他们有71.50%的机会避免输掉一个以上的球。赔率在1.50-1.55左右，在网上随处可见。东道主目前在积分榜上排名第七，拿到了21分。但是他们的xPTS数量更高——准确地说是25.02。上赛季他们打得相对不错，以55分排名第六。他们可以随着赛季的进展而进步。

是的，客队在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有优势，但差距比博彩公司和许多娱乐投注者估计的要小得多。邓迪联队丢了10个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)明显更高——14.45个。东道主已经丢了24个球，他们的防守结构很好，每个球他们都很努力，尤其是在主场。例如，目前排名第一的里斯已经丢了26个球。然而，客队拥有强大的火力——按照这个联盟的标准。他们有很多速度快、有创造力和技术娴熟的进攻球员。到目前为止，他们在联赛中已经进了42个球。他们的预期目标数(xG)为38.43。因弗内斯已经进了23个球，并且缺乏进攻创造力来争夺前四的位置。他们很可能会在这里进行强硬防守——主要依靠快速反击、角球、任意球——或者可能的点球来得分。他们在最近的五场比赛中输了两场，0-2和1-2。在他们的比赛中，他们进攻很好，在客场以3-1战胜了艾尔队，尽管他们在赌博市场上处于劣势。邓迪联队最近并没有处于最佳状态。事实上，他们在最近的五场比赛中只赢了两场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们非常令人失望——在主场以2比3输给了莫顿，他们是最大的热门——在博彩市场上的胜率大约是1.40 !