SC Cambuur Leeuwarden VS MVV Maastricht

Cambuur welcome Maastricht for this Eerste Divisie round 21 battle at Cambuur Stadion in Leeuwarden early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest level of Dutch football. The level of this league is not particularly high by European standards – even for a second-tier. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of slightly better than average level by this league's standards. The hosts were to this level from the Eredivisie – after an abysmal season - for this season. They have been a rather big disappointment so far – even taking into account that they lost some important players after last season. They do not seem to have much of a chance to be promoted back directly – as only the top-2 teams do so. The hosts are currently in 8th place in the standings. A total of 20 clubs play in this league. They have 31 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is higher though – 33.11 to be precise.. They have potential to improve as the season progresses but the bookmakers seem to give this potential way too much emphasis. The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see the hosts only as very favourites at the time of writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time. I expect the odds on Maastricht to drop before the match starts as smart money is expected to pile up on them. The current odds of around 1.50 on the home win are clearly too low. With the current odds the obvious smart bet is Maastricht with the +1.5 goals handicap option. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis they have a 69.60% chance of avoiding losing by a margin of more than one goal. Odds of around 1.65 are widely available. The visitors currently occupy the 13th place in the standings with a decent 26 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is 27.03.. Last season they played well - finishing in 5th place with 59 points. They, too, can improve but are, in all honesty, unlikely to do as well as last season.

The hosts' defence has been incredibly shaky this season! It has a poor structure and the defenders have made a massive number of silly mistakes – often giving too risky passes near their own goal etc.. Indeed, they have conceded a whopping 39 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is smaller though. The 39 goals is the third-highest number in this league. The biggest number is 40 – (Jong Ajax & Den Bosch). I would not be too surprised if Maastricht were to score more than once in this game. The visitors have allowed only 29 goals and have a well-structured defence. However, the hosts have massive firepower - by this league's standards. They have many fast and skilled offensive players. They have scored 46 goals in this league so far. Their number of expected goals (xG) is "only" 42.43. In this area of the game they do have a significant edge over the visitors who have netted the ball 29 goals. Maastricht's number of xG is 32.11.Cambuur have won two of their last five competitive games. In their most recent competitive match they lost to Den Bosch, currently in 18th place, 1-3 away from home as clear favourites – priced around 1.85 to win by the bookies. It was a poor performance – especially defensively. Their defence looked very shaky indeed. The hosts generated 1.54 in xG – Cambuur managed only 0.45. This was yet another example of Cambuur being overrated by the bookies! Maastricht have lost just one of their last five games – winning 3/5. In their most recent match they deservedly beat Oss 2-0 at home after 58% ball possession and recording many more shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 1.45-0.78. Before this they faced Groningen at home as big underdogs – priced around 6.50 to win on the betting market and took a 1-1 draw – despite being forced to defend a lot.. The bookies should respect them more! 2-1 is a pretty probably score here.

剑桥队VS马斯特里赫特队

北京时间周六凌晨，剑桥球场将在联赛第21轮迎战马斯特里赫特。这是荷兰足球的第二高水平。以欧洲的标准来看，这个联赛的水平并不是特别高——即使是二线球队。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平略好一点的比赛。在经历了一个糟糕的赛季后，东道主本赛季从荷甲来到了这个水平。到目前为止，他们的表现相当令人失望——即使考虑到上赛季之后他们失去了一些重要的球员。他们似乎没有太多的机会直接晋级，因为只有前2名的球队会这样做。东道主目前排名第8。总共有20个俱乐部参加这个联赛。他们的账户上有31分。他们的期望值(xPTS)更高——准确地说是33.11。随着赛季的推进，他们有潜力取得进步，但博彩公司似乎过于强调这种潜力。在北京时间周五晚上撰写这篇预告时，接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司只将东道主视为非常受欢迎的人。我预计马斯特里赫特队的赔率会在比赛开始前下降，因为聪明的钱会堆积在他们身上。目前主场获胜的赔率约为1.50，显然太低了。以目前的赔率来看，显然明智的选择是马斯特里赫特的+1.5个进球障碍选项。根据我老练的、以数据为基础的专家分析，他们有69.60%的机会避免输掉一个以上的球。1.65左右的赔率是很普遍的。客队目前在积分榜上排名第13位，拿到了26分。他们的xPTS数量是27.03。上赛季他们打得很好，以59分排名第五。他们也可以提高，但老实说，不太可能像上赛季那样出色。

东道主本赛季的防守简直不堪一击!它的结构很糟糕，后卫犯了很多愚蠢的错误——经常在自己的球门附近传球太危险等等。事实上，他们已经丢了39个球，但是他们的预期失球数(xGA)要少一些。39个进球是联赛第三高的数字。最大的数字是40 - (Jong Ajax & Den Bosch)。如果马斯特里赫特在这场比赛中进球不止一次，我也不会太惊讶。客队只丢了29个球，他们的防守结构很好。然而，按照这个联盟的标准，东道主拥有强大的火力。他们有许多速度快、技术娴熟的进攻球员。到目前为止，他们在联赛中已经进了46个球。他们的预期目标数(xG)“只有”42.43。在这方面，他们确实比客队有明显的优势，客队打进了29球。马斯特里赫特的xG指数是32.11。坎布尔队在最近的五场比赛中赢了两场。在最近的一场正式比赛中，他们输给了登博斯，登博斯目前排名第18位，客场1-3被看好，博彩公司的胜率约为1.85。这是一场糟糕的比赛，尤其是在防守端。他们的防守看起来确实很不稳固。东道主在xG中产生了1.54，而Cambuur只产生了0.45。这是坎布尔被博彩公司高估的又一个例子!马斯特里赫特在过去的五场比赛中只输了一场，赢了3/5。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以58%的控球率和更多的射门、进攻和危险进攻的情况下，当之无愧地以2比0击败奥斯。xG值为1.45 ~ 0.78。在此之前，他们在主场面对格罗宁根队，虽然他们被迫防守很多次，但他们在赌博市场上的胜率约为6.50，并以1比1战平。博彩公司应该更尊重他们!2比1很可能是一个比分。