RFC de Liege VS Patro Eisden

RFC Liege host Patro Eisden for this Belgian Pro League round 17 clash at Stade de Rocourt in Liège early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest level of Belgian football. The level of this league is not very high by European standards – even for a second-tier. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better than average level by this league's standards. Both teams were promoted to this level from the third tier for this season and have performed better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis but the visitors have definitely been better as whole. The hosts are currently in 7th place in the standings. A total of 16 clubs play in this league. They have just 25 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is lower though – 20.56 to be precise.. The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see the visitors only as narrow favourites at the time of writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time. I expect the odds on the visitors to drop before the match starts as smart money is expected to pile up on them. With the current odds the obvious smart bet is Patro Eisden +0.5 goals handicap. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis they have a 44% chance of taking all three points! Odds of around 2.60 on the away win are widely available. The visitors currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with a fine 28 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is 29.34.

The visitors have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game – both in terms of pure class and with the expected lineups. They have conceded only 17 goals but their number of expected goals in this league so far. This is the third-lowest number in this league. For example, Waregem, who currently top the standings with 32 points, have allowed 18 goals. The Patro Eisden defence is very well structured and stupid individual mistakes are few. When needed, they defend well as a team – with even the strikes taking part in defending/pressing the opponent. They do not have "the biggest names" in the defence but I will not let this fool me at all. Furthermore, I trust their coach in terms of developing their defence even further. According to my sources they also have a great team spirit. The RFC Liege defence is not bad but they have conceded 22 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 24.56. Their defensive structure is mediocre and some of their defenders make too many mistakes under big pressure – especially against the top-6 teams. The visitors have netted the ball 22 times and their number of expected goals (xG) is 23.97. The hosts have scored 21 goals and their number of xG is 20.01. The hosts have won two of their last five matches. In their most recent game they faced Dender away from home and it was a goalless draw. Dender had 59% ball possession and generated much more in xG – 1.56-0.69 to be precise. The visitors have won three times and lost just once in their last 5 matches. In their last match they crushed Club Brugge U23 4-0 at home generating a massive 3.56 in xG! The visitors managed 0.53. Before this they beat Genk U23 away from home after recording more goal attempts – 10-6. Both teams had just one shot on target though.

列日RFC VS艾斯登Patro

北京时间周六凌晨，列日RFC主场迎战帕特洛·艾斯登，将在列日的罗古球场进行比利时职业联赛第17轮比赛。这是比利时足球的第二高水平。以欧洲的标准来看，这个联赛的水平并不是很高——即使是二线球队。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场高于联赛平均水平的比赛。这两支球队本赛季都是从第三梯队升级到这个级别的，他们的表现比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好，但客队整体上肯定更好。东道主目前排名第七。共有16个俱乐部参加这个联赛。他们的账户上只有25分。他们的期望值(xPTS)更低，准确地说是20.56。在北京时间周五晚上撰写这篇预告时，那些接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司只认为访客的胜算不大。我预计客队的赔率会在比赛开始前下降，因为人们会把大笔钱押在客队身上。根据目前的赔率，显然明智的赌注是帕特洛·艾斯登+0.5个进球障碍。根据我老练的、基于数据的专家分析，他们有44%的机会拿下全部三分!客场获胜的赔率约为2.60。客队目前在积分榜上排名第四，拿到了28分。他们的xPTS数量是29.34。

客队在比赛的各个方面都比主队有优势——无论是在纯粹的水平上还是在预期的阵容上。他们只丢了17个球，但这是他们在联赛中迄今为止的预期进球数。这是联盟第三低的数据。例如，目前以32分排名积分榜第一的韦勒赫姆队就丢了18个球。帕特洛·艾斯登的防守结构非常好，个人愚蠢的失误很少。当需要的时候，他们作为一个团队防守得很好——甚至连前锋都参与了防守/压迫对手。他们在后防线上没有“大牌”，但我不会让这一点欺骗我。此外，我相信他们的教练会进一步发展他们的防守。据我所知，他们也有很强的团队精神。列日的防线还不错，但他们丢了22个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是24.56个。他们的防守结构平庸，他们的一些后卫在巨大的压力下犯了太多的错误——尤其是面对前6名的球队。客队取得了22次进球，预期进球数(xG)为23.97。东道主打入21球，进球数为20.01。东道主在最近五场比赛中赢了两场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场面对邓德尔，并且是一场0比0的平局。登德有59%的控球率，更准确的说是1.56-0.69。客队在最近5场比赛中取得3胜1负的战绩。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场4-0大胜布鲁日U23俱乐部，全场进球3.56 !访客队获得了0.53分。在此之前，他们在客场以10比6击败了进球次数更多的亨克U23。两支球队都只有一次射正。