In my opinion, Bologna have bigger chances to avoid loss in this game than the bookies want to suggest for us in their odds.

It's not a long trip for guests. It's about 1h to drive by car from Bologna to Fiorentina.

Both teams played each other at this stadium in November in Serie A. Fiorentina won 2:1, but that wasn't a deserved result as Bologna finished with higher expected goals scored number. Bologna coach Thiago Motta said yesterday:" Tomorrow we will enter the field as always, trying to take the match where it suits us. In the first leg, we played better in the championship. Each match is a story in itself. Tomorrow we have the opportunity to play a beautiful match, and this leads us to remain focused. "

In the previous round, Fiorentina had big problems against Parma from Serie B. Bologna knocked out Inter (they won the last two editions of Coppa Italia).

According to the expected goals scored model, there is no big difference between both teams in terms of quality in attack. Fiorentina have 23.0 expected goals scored, Bologna 22.2, but it is worth mentioning one thing - Fiorentina today is without their best scorer and probably the best offensive player, Nico Gonzalez (he scored in last game against Bologna..).

According to the expected goals conceded model, Bologna is the third-best defensive formation in Serie A (only Juventus and Inter looked better). In the same department, Fiorentina is in the bottom half of the table. Big difference, no doubt about that.

Since their last match against Fiorentina, Bologna have played 8 matches in all competitions and lost only once - away against Udinese, but that was a close game (expected goals scored for Udinese 1.13, for Bologna 0.95).

I'm not convinced by Fiorentina at all. In the last 7 matches in all competitions, they failed to win 4 times. Yes, they have won in their last two home matches, but that was really lucky. Against Verona they should lose as they had 0.49 expected goals scored (Verona 2.58!!!). Against Torino they won by a late goal and they had only 0.58 expected goals scored. Fiorentina in the last 6 matches in all competitions, failed to score more than one goal, so I can imagine big problems for them against the rock-solid Bologna defensive formation.

Bologna best player in the current season (according to the ratings), Lewis Ferguson was suspended in the last round of Serie A. Today he is available, fresh and ready to go. For sure, this is a big boost to confidence for guests.

In those circumstances, I see excellent value on the away side.

在我看来，博洛尼亚在这场比赛中避免输球的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。

对客人来说，这不是一次长途旅行。从博洛尼亚开车到佛罗伦萨大约需要1小时。

两支球队曾在11月的意甲联赛中在这座球场交手，佛罗伦萨2:1获胜，但这并不是一个值得的结果，因为博洛尼亚的进球数高于预期。博洛尼亚教练蒂亚戈·莫塔昨天说:“明天我们将一如既往地上场，努力在适合我们的地方进行比赛。”在第一回合，我们在冠军联赛中发挥得更好。每场比赛本身就是一个故事。明天我们有机会踢一场精彩的比赛，这让我们保持专注。”

在上一轮比赛中，佛罗伦萨对阵乙级球队帕尔马时遇到了大麻烦。博洛尼亚淘汰了国际米兰(他们赢得了上两届意大利杯)。

根据期望进球数模型，两队在进攻质量上没有太大的差异。佛罗伦萨的预期进球数为23.0，博洛尼亚为22.2，但值得一提的是，今天的佛罗伦萨没有他们最好的射手，也可能是最好的进攻球员，尼科·冈萨雷斯(他在上一场对阵博洛尼亚的比赛中进球了……)。

根据预期失球模型，博洛尼亚是意甲第三好的防守阵型(只有尤文图斯和国米看起来更好)。在同一部门中，佛罗伦萨位于积分榜的下半部分。差别很大，这是毫无疑问的。

自从上一场与佛罗伦萨的比赛以来，博洛尼亚在各项赛事中打了8场比赛，只输了一场——客场对阵乌迪内斯，但那是一场势均力敌的比赛(乌迪内斯的预期进球数为1.13，博洛尼亚的预期进球数为0.95)。

我完全不相信佛罗伦萨。在各项赛事的最后7场比赛中，他们有4次未能获胜。是的，他们在最近的两场主场比赛中都赢了，但那真的很幸运。对阵维罗纳，他们应该输球，因为他们的预期进球数是0.49(维罗纳是2.58!!)在对阵都灵的比赛中，他们以最后一球获胜，他们的预期进球数只有0.58个。佛罗伦萨在所有赛事的最后6场比赛中都没有进过一个球，所以我可以想象他们在面对坚如磐石的博洛尼亚防守阵型时遇到的大问题。

博洛尼亚本赛季最佳球员(根据评分)，路易斯·弗格森在上一轮意甲联赛中被禁赛，今天他可以上场了，精神饱满，随时准备上场。当然，这极大地提升了客人们的信心。

在这种情况下，我看到了客场的巨大价值。