In my opinion Casa Pia have bigger chances than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds. Double chance on away side looks like very good option to play.

Obviously, Moreirense is on 6th position in league table and this is much above expectations as they are newcomers, but they don't have enough quality to keep this pace. No doubt about that. Casa Pia finished previous season at 10th place and they are solid team from middle of the table.

Moreirense plays better on the road than at home. In current season they failed to win in 5 of 8 matches front of home crowd. On the other hand Casa Pia also so far played better on away. They went unbeaten in 5 of 8 league matches on the road.

Moreirense in previous round had a draw 0:0 on away against poor Vizela (relegation zone) and they had problems with creativity. Moreirense produced only 0.48 expected goals scored in that game. I don't see easy goals for them today. According to the expected goals conceded model Casa Pia is top5 in defense. On the other hand Moreirense is on 17th place in expected goals scored table (!!!).

Casa Pia in last round lost 1:3 at home against strong Braga, but match was much closer than scoreline shows. Expected goals scored for Casa Pia 1.00, for Braga 1.42. In last away game Casa Pia won 3:1 against Chaves. If they continue plays this way, they have all required tools to avoid loss in this game.

在我看来，卡萨皮亚有更大的机会比博彩公司想要告诉我们的赔率。客场的双重机会看起来是个不错的选择。

很明显，莫雷伦斯排在联赛第6位，这远远超出了他们的预期，因为他们是新人，但他们没有足够的实力来保持这个速度。毫无疑问。Casa Pia上赛季排名第10，他们是一支稳定的中游球队。

莫雷尼斯在客场比在主场打得好。在本赛季，他们在主场的8场比赛中有5场没有获胜。另一方面，卡萨皮亚到目前为止在客场也表现得更好。他们在8场客场联赛中有5场保持不败。

莫雷伦斯在上一轮客场0比0战平了糟糕的维泽拉(降级区)，他们在创造力方面存在问题。莫雷伦斯在那场比赛中只打进了0.48个预期进球。我不认为他们今天能轻松进球。根据预期失球模型，卡萨皮亚在防守方面排名前五。另一方面，莫雷伦斯在预期进球数榜上排名第17位(!!)。

卡萨皮亚在上一轮主场以1:3输给了强大的布拉加，但比赛比比分显示的要接近得多。卡萨皮亚队的预期进球数为1.00，布拉加队为1.42。在上一场客场比赛中，卡萨皮亚3:1战胜查韦斯。如果他们继续以这种方式玩游戏，他们就拥有所有必要的工具来避免在游戏中失败。