Pacos de Ferreira VS Porto B

Pacos Ferreira and Porto B lock horns in this Liga Portugal 2 round 16 battle at Estádio da Capital do Móvel late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the second tier of Portuguese football and the level is much lower than that of the first tier. Pacos Ferreira were relegated from the highest level to Liga Portugal 2 after an abysmal last season. The club is in bad shape as a whole. Indeed, they have been very disappointing this season. According to my sources their team spirit is far from good at the moment and I also do not trust their overrated coach – either in terms of tactical skills or as a leader. They have scored only 18 goals in this league and their number of expected goals (xG) is even a little lower. Porto B have scored a whopping 30 goals! This is the second-highest number in this league. Nacional, in 2nd place, have netted the ball 33 times. With the expected lineups the visitors have a substantial advantage over the hosts in this area of the game. Pacos Ferreira have been on poor form lately. Indeed, they have won just one of their last seven games! In their last game they faced Benfica B at home as solid favourites according to the bookies. It was a 2-2 draw but the visitors were the better team. They had 56% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal (10-5), shots of goal attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 90-52. This was yet another example of Porto B being overvalued on the betting market.. The same is true today as most of the biggest bookies see this game as a coin toss – 50-50% game. This is incorrect – the visitors have a 41% chance of winning!

Pacos Ferreira are in 12th place with 19 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is 17.23. The visitors have performed much better and have grabbed 21 points. Their number of xPTS is 24.23. In terms of defensive quality the visitors have only a narrow, but still meaningful, edge over the hosts. Indeed, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 17.67 – the hosts' number is 21.15. Porto B have won two of their last five games but have had some bad luck recently. In their most recent game they lost to Nacional 2-3 but would have deserved a win as they recorded manu more goal attempts, shots on goal, corners, attacks and dangerous attacks. Their squad's estimated market value – according to Transfermarkt.com – is about 36 million euros. The hosts' players are valued at a total of only around seven million. That's, indeed, a huge difference!

帕科斯-德-费雷拉VS波尔图B

北京时间周日晚，帕科斯·费雷拉和波尔图B队将在葡萄牙乙级联赛第16轮的比赛中在Estádio da Capital do Móvel交锋。这是葡萄牙足球的第二梯队，水平比第一梯队低得多。帕科斯·费雷拉在上赛季表现糟糕后从葡萄牙甲级联赛降级到乙级联赛。这个俱乐部整体状况很差。事实上，他们本赛季的表现非常令人失望。根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神目前还远远不够好，我也不相信他们被高估的教练——无论是在战术技巧方面还是在领导方面。他们在这个联赛中只进了18个球，他们的预期进球数(xG)甚至更低。波尔图B队已经打进了惊人的30球!这是联盟第二高的数字。排在第二位的国家，共进球33次。凭借预期的阵容，客队在这方面比主队有很大的优势。帕科斯·费雷拉最近状态不佳。事实上，他们在过去的七场比赛中只赢了一场!在上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对本菲卡B队，根据博彩公司的说法，他们是最受欢迎的。平局是2比2，但客队实力更强。他们有56%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射正次数(10胜5负)、射门次数，尤其是危险的进攻——90胜52负。这是波尔图B在博彩市场上被高估的又一个例子。今天也是如此，因为大多数最大的博彩公司把这场比赛看作是一场50-50%的抛硬币游戏。这是错误的——客队有41%的获胜机会!

帕科斯-费雷拉以19分排在第12位，但他们的预期积分(xPTS)是17.23分。客队表现得好得多，拿到了21分。他们的xPTS数量是24.23。就防守质量而言，客队只比主队有微弱但仍有意义的优势。事实上，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是17.67个，而东道主是21.15个。波尔图B队在最近的五场比赛中赢了两场，但最近运气不佳。在最近的一场比赛中，他们以2比3输给了国家，但他们本应赢得一场胜利，因为他们的进球次数、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都比国家多。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，这支球队的估计市值约为3600万欧元。东道主球员的身价总共只有700万左右。这确实是一个巨大的差异!