FC Famalicao VS GD Chaves

Estrela host Vizela for this Liga Portugal round 16 clash at Estádio José Gomes in Amadora very late Saturday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is not nearly as good as that of the top-5 leagues in Europe but is still much better than average.. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of somewhat low level by this league's standards. Estrela were promoted from the second tier to this level for this season. They have – unarguably - played a bit better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. Even so, they have, as a result of better-than-expected performances, become too hot on the betting market. We must not forget that they are a pretty tiny team in terms of overall financial standards and players' estimated total market by the Liga Portugal standards. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Vizela are the bigger team here! Indeed, their players have an estimated market value of about 17 million euros. This is, however, too low in my expert opinion! At least four players are undervalued. I would say that 22-23 million would be a more realistic number! The Estrela squad is valued at only about 14 million – a pretty low number by this league's Liga Portugal standards. Several of their players have played above their normal level so far this season.. This obviously cannot go on for the rest of the season! The hosts definotelt lack quality in all areas of the game to seriously challenge for a top-10 – and most probably even a top-12 place.. They are currently in 17th place in my power rating. This rating reflects the teams' pure class – excluding the motivation factor and possible fatigue – caused by a demanding match schedule.. Vizela, on the other hand, are in 12th place in this ranking. Yes, their season has been a disappointment both results-wise and on the pitch as a whole but they have the potential to improve in all areas of the game – especially in terms of offensive creativity.. This has been a (surprisingly) big problem for them so far this season..

Estrela currently occupy the 8th place in the standings with a decent 16 points to their account. However, this league is somewhat balanced behind the top-6 teams. Indeed, for example Portimonense, currently only in 16th place, have just one point less to their account than the hosts. I must highlight that Estrelas's number of expected points (xPTS) is only 12.06. They have netted the ball 22 times in this league but their number of expected goals (xG) is much lower – 15.08 to be precise. They have conceded 22 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 27.17. The visitors do have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game - with the expected lineups. The hosts are expected to be without (at least) Aloisio, Antonio Felipe, Bruno, Lopes, Mansur, Mendes and Owurwa. The visitors have no absentees announced at the time of posting this preview. Vizela's defence has a quite good structure and the midfielders actively take part in defending – especially in away games. They have allowed 22 goals and their number of xGA is 20.99. Their offense, on the other hand, has quite a decent amount of individual skill and talent but as mentioned has lacked creativity but also speed. They have still scored only 14 goals but their number of xG is 18.01. The bookies respect the hosts too much here – offering both odds of only around 2.70 to win. The main reason behind this must be the standings but I will not be fooled by this! I strongly disagree with the bookies. Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis the visitors are solid favourites in this game. The smart bet with current odds is, of course, the Vizela +0.5 goals handicap option to increase the super hot streak of eight winners in a row. I will be posting one more pick for Saturday! I also want to mention that Estádio José Gomes with a maximum capacity of only about 900 spectators, is not a very intimidating place for visitors to play at.. The Estrela fans do, of course, support the team but are not very enthusiastic.. In fact, Estrela have lost four of their last six games at Estádio José Gomes.

The hosts have been in bad form recently! Indeed, they have managed to win only one of their last seven games and are definitely in decline. According to my sources their team spirit is also far from great at the moment.. I also do not trust their overrated coach – especially in terms of tactical skills.. In their last game they were humiliated by Arouca who took a convincing 4-1 away win! The visitors had 62% ball possession. Estrela's defence looked awfully disorganized and shaky.. With this kind of defending Estrela would have a very low chance of winning today but surely they can improve - at least a bit.. Arouca visitors recorded many more goal attempts (18-6), shots on goal, shots of target, corner kicks, attacks (119-71) as well as dangerous attacks. Moreover, Arouca generated a whopping 3.90 in xG – poor Estrela managed only 0.81! I want to highlight that the bookies saw Arouca only as marginal favourites in this game at the time of kick off.. Vizela have been better – but still not in great – form result-wise recently.. Even so, they have lost only two of their last seven matches. They have now played two draws in a row. In their last game they faced Moreirense, a good team who are currently in 6th place with 26 points, at home as underdogs according to the bookies. Even so, Vizela played a strong game having 61% ball possession and generated more in xG – 0.44-0.32 in this rather uneventful clash. The visitors did record one more goal attempt than Vizela. A draw was a justified result after a tight battle..

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法马利科VS查韦斯

北京时间周六上午晚些时候，埃斯特雷拉将在阿马多拉主场迎战维泽拉。这个联赛的水平远不如欧洲五大联赛，但仍然比平均水平好得多。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看有点低水平的比赛。埃斯特雷拉本赛季从二级联赛提升到这个级别。毫无疑问，他们的表现比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好一些。即便如此，由于表现好于预期，它们在博彩市场上变得过于热门。我们不能忘记，从整体财务标准和球员的整体市场估计来看，他们是一支相当小的球队。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的说法，Vizela是这里更大的球队!事实上，他们的球员的市场价值估计在1700万欧元左右。然而，在我的专家意见中，这太低了!至少有四位球员被低估了。我会说2200万到2300万是一个更现实的数字!埃斯特雷拉队的价值仅为1400万英镑，以葡萄牙联赛的标准来看，这是一个相当低的数字。本赛季到目前为止，他们有几个球员的表现都超过了正常水平。这显然不能在本赛季剩下的时间里继续下去!东道主显然在比赛的各个方面都缺乏实力来挑战前10名，甚至很可能是前12名。他们目前在我的能量评级中排名第17位。这一评级反映了球队的纯粹等级——排除了动力因素和可能的疲劳——由高强度的赛程引起。另一方面，Vizela在该排行榜上排名第12位。是的，他们这个赛季无论是在结果上还是在球场上都令人失望，但是他们在比赛的各个方面都有提高的潜力——尤其是在进攻创造力方面。这个赛季到目前为止，这对他们来说是一个(令人惊讶的)大问题。

埃斯特雷拉目前在积分榜上排名第八，积分榜上有16分。然而，在排名前六的球队之后，这个联盟在某种程度上是平衡的。事实上，比如目前仅排在第16位的Portimonense，他们的积分只比东道主少1分。我必须强调，Estrelas的期望点数(xPTS)只有12.06。他们在联赛中有22次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)要低得多，准确地说是15.08个。他们丢了22个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是27.17个。客队在比赛的各个方面都比主队有优势——包括预期的阵容。东道主预计至少会失去阿洛伊西奥、安东尼奥·费利佩、布鲁诺、洛佩斯、曼苏尔、门德斯和奥乌尔瓦。在发布此预览时，访问者没有宣布缺席。维拉的防守结构非常好，中场球员积极参与防守，尤其是在客场比赛中。他们丢了22个球，进球数为20.99个。另一方面，他们的进攻，有相当多的个人技术和天赋，但如前所述，缺乏创造力和速度。虽然他们只进了14个球，但是他们的进球数是18.01。这里的博彩公司太尊重东道主了——两场比赛的赔率都只有2.70左右。这背后的主要原因肯定是排名，但我不会被这个愚弄!我强烈反对赌马公司的说法。根据我深入的数据分析，客队在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的。当然，在目前的赔率下，明智的赌注是Vizela +0.5个进球障碍选项，以增加八连胜的超级连胜纪录。我将在周六发布更多的选择!我还想提一下，Estádio约瑟·戈麦斯体育场最多只能容纳900名观众，对游客来说并不是一个令人生畏的地方。埃斯特雷拉的球迷当然支持这支球队，但不是很热情。事实上，埃斯特雷拉在最近的六场比赛中输掉了四场Estádio约瑟·戈麦斯。

主人们最近状态不佳!事实上，他们在过去的七场比赛中只赢了一场，而且肯定在走下坡路。根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神目前也远谈不上伟大。我也不相信他们被高估的教练——尤其是在战术技巧方面。在上一场比赛中，他们被阿鲁卡羞辱，阿鲁卡在客场以4比1令人信服地获胜!客队有62%的控球率。埃斯特拉的防守显得非常混乱和不稳定。有了这样的辩护，埃斯特拉就会

我们今天获胜的机会很低，但他们肯定能提高——至少能提高一点。阿鲁卡客队的进球次数(18胜6负)、射门次数、射正次数、角球次数、进攻次数(119胜71负)以及危险进攻次数都更多。此外，Arouca在xG中产生了惊人的3.90，而可怜的Estrela只产生了0.81!我想强调的是，在开球时，博彩公司认为阿鲁卡在这场比赛中只是一个边缘热门。维拉有更好的-但仍然不是在伟大的形式，结果明智的最近…即便如此，他们在最近七场比赛中只输了两场。他们已经连续打了两场平局。在上一场比赛中，他们面对的是莫雷伦斯，一支目前以26分排名第6的强队，根据博彩公司的数据，他们在主场处于劣势。即便如此，在这场平淡的比赛中，维泽拉的控球率为61%，创造了更多的进球(xG - 0.44-0.32)。客队确实比维泽拉多进了一个球。经过一场势均力敌的较量，平局是理所当然的结果。