SC Farense VS Gil Vicente

Farense welcome Gil Vicente for this Liga Portugal round 16 clash at Estádio de São Luís in Faro Beijing time. The level of this league is not even close to the top-5 leagues in Europe but is still way better than average.. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of somewhat average level by this league's standards. Farense were promoted from the second tier to this level for this season. They have been better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. Even so, they have, as a result of positive performances, become too hot on the betting market. We must not forget that they are a small team in terms of overall financial standards and players' estimated total market. Indeed, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Gil Vicente are a much bigger team! Indeed, their players have an estimated market value of 24 million euros. This is still too low in my expert opinion! At least three players are undervalued. I would say that 28-30 million would be a more fair number.. The Farense squad is valued at only about 11 million – a very low number by the Liga Portugal standards. Many of their players have played above their true level so far this season – this cannot go on forever! They lack quality in all areas of the game to seriously challenge for a top-10 place. They are currently in 16th place in my power rating. This rating illustrates the teams' pure class - excluding motivation and possible fatigue – caused by a grueling schedule. Gil Vicente, on the other hand, are in 11th place in this ranking. Yes, their season has been a slight disappointment but they have the players to improve in all areas of the game – especially offensively.

Farense currently occupy the 8th place in the standings with a respectable 18 points to their account. However, this league is pretty balanced behind the top-6 teams. Indeed, for example Portimonense, currently in 16th place, have just three points less in their pocket than the hosts. Farense's number of expected points (xPTS) is only 15.03. They have netted the ball 22 times in this league but their number of expected goals (xG) is much lower – 18.06 to be precise. They have conceded 22 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 26.12. However, in this area of the game the visitors do not have an edge with the expected lineups. Their defence has a decent structure but their defenders have made too many silly mistakes this season so far. Gil Vicente have allowed 29 goals and their number of xGA is 26.05. Their offense, on the other hand, has quite a lot of individual skill and talent but the structure has not been optimal.. They have scored 26 goals. In this area of the game they should be better than the Farense – even away from home. The bookies respect the hosts too much here – offering them odds of only around 2.10-2.15 to win. I strongly disagree. Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis there is no favourite in this game. Consequently, the smart bet with current odds is, of course, Gil Vicente +0.5 goals to increase the super hot streak. I will be posting at least one more pick for Saturday! I want to highlight that Estádio de São Luís, with a maximum capacity of only 6500 spectators, is not a particularly scary place for visitors. The fans do support the team but are not very loud. Faranse have won only one of their last five games..

The hosts have been in pretty poor form recently. Indeed, they have failed to win any of their last four games and are in decline after a pretty good start to the season. In their last game they were crushed by Estoril at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. The hosts had 70% ball possession but Farense, too, had their chances to score.. However, their defence looked awfully vulnerable.. Before this they faced Estrela at home as clear favourites, priced around 2.05 to win by the bookies. It was a very disappointing performance – especially offensively. Their attacks lack speed, creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments. They recorded only one shot on goal and generated just 0.55 in xG. Estrela managed 1.34. Gil Vicente have 15 points to their account but their number of xPTS is 17.89. They have not taken many wins recently but did defeat Boavista, currently in 9th place, in their last game. This home win must be a huge boost to their confidence! Gil Vicente played a strong game and fully deserved to win. Indeed, they had close to 60% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (11-8), shots on goal (3-1), shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks than Boavista. Moreover, Gil Vicente generated 1.67 in xG. They defended very well and allowed Boavista only 0.47 in xG. Before this they lost to Arouca away from home as clear underdogs on the betting market. However, the final score is very misleading! Indeed, the visitors had 55& ball possession and recorded many more corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks - 57-33. They also generated marginally more in xG – 1.47-1.42. Arouca did have one more goal attempt though. In round 1r they faced a dangerous team, Moreirense, at home as solid underdogs and took a point after a balanced clash. The xG numbers were 1.56-1.45 in the hosts' favour. Both teams had four shots on goal. A solid performance as a whole and yet another example of their improving defending..

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SC Farense VS Gil Vicente

法轮斯迎战吉尔·维森特。这个联赛的水平甚至还没有接近欧洲五大联赛，但仍然比平均水平好得多。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。法轮斯本赛季从二级联赛提升到这个级别。他们比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。即便如此，由于表现良好，它们在博彩市场上也变得过于热门。我们不能忘记，从整体财务标准和球员的整体市场估计来看，他们是一支小球队。事实上，根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，吉尔·维森特是一支更大的球队!事实上，他们的球员的市场价值估计为2400万欧元。在我的专家看来，这仍然太低了!至少有三名球员被低估了。我认为2800万到3000万是比较公平的数字。法国队的身价仅为1100万欧元，以葡萄牙联赛的标准来看，这是一个非常低的数字。本赛季到目前为止，他们很多球员的表现都超出了他们的真实水平——这种情况不可能永远持续下去!他们在比赛的各个方面都缺乏实力来挑战前10名的位置。他们目前在我的能量评级中排名第16位。这个评分说明了球队的纯粹等级——不包括动力和可能的疲劳——由紧张的赛程引起的。另一方面，吉尔·维森特(Gil Vicente)在该排行榜上排名第11位。是的，他们这个赛季有点令人失望，但他们的球员在比赛的各个方面都有进步，尤其是进攻端。

法国队目前以可观的18分排名第8。然而，这个联盟在前六名球队的背后是相当平衡的。事实上，以目前排名第16位的Portimonense为例，他们的积分只比东道主少3分。Farense的预期点数(xPTS)只有15.03。他们在联赛中有22次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)要低得多，准确地说是18.06个。他们丢了22个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是26.12个。然而，在比赛的这一领域，客队并不具备预期的阵容优势。他们的防守结构很好，但是他们的后卫本赛季到目前为止犯了太多愚蠢的错误。吉尔·维森特丢了29个球，他们的射门数是26.05个。另一方面，他们的进攻有很多个人技术和天赋，但结构并不是最理想的。他们已经进了26个球。在这方面他们应该比法国人更好——即使是在客场。这里的博彩公司对东道主太尊重了——给他们的赔率只有2.10-2.15左右。我强烈反对。根据我深入的、基于数据的分析，在这个游戏中没有什么偏爱。因此，根据目前的赔率，明智的赌注当然是吉尔·维森特+0.5个进球来增加超级连胜。我将在周六发布至少一个以上的选择!我想强调的是，Estádio de s<e:1> o Luís，最多只能容纳6500名观众，对游客来说并不是一个特别可怕的地方。球迷们确实支持这个队，但声音不大。法国队最近五场比赛只赢了一场。

东道主最近状态很差。事实上，他们在过去的四场比赛中没有赢过一场，而且在本赛季有了一个不错的开局后，他们的表现正在下滑。在上一场比赛中，他们在Estádio António科英布拉达莫塔被埃斯托里尔击败。主队有70%的控球率，但法国队也有得分的机会。然而，他们的防守看起来非常脆弱。在此之前，他们在主场迎战埃斯特雷拉，他们显然是夺冠热门，博彩公司开出的胜率在2.05左右。这是一场非常令人失望的比赛，尤其是在进攻端。他们的进攻缺乏速度、创造力和关键时刻的传球准确性。他们只有一次射门，射门得分只有0.55。Estrela获得了1.34分。吉尔·维森特有15分到他们的账户，但他们的xPTS数量是17.89。他们最近没有取得多少胜利，但在上一场比赛中击败了目前排名第9的博阿维斯塔。这场主场胜利一定极大地提升了他们的信心!吉尔·维森特踢得很好，完全配得上胜利。事实上，他们的控球率接近60%，进球次数(11-8)、射正(3-1)、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻都比博阿维斯塔多。此外，Gil Vicente在xG中生成了1.67。他们防守很好，只让博阿维斯塔进了0.47分

xG。在此之前，他们在客场输给了阿鲁卡，在博彩市场上他们显然处于劣势。然而，最终的分数是非常误导的!事实上，客队的控球率为55%，创造了更多的角球、进攻和危险进攻——57比33。在xG - 1.47-1.42中，它们的生成也略多。不过阿鲁卡还有一次进球尝试。在第11轮比赛中，他们在主场面对一支危险的球队——莫雷伦斯队。莫雷伦斯队在一场势均力敌的交锋后拿到了一分。对东道主有利的xG值是1.56-1.45。两队都有四次射门。这是一场稳定的整体表现，也是他们防守能力提高的又一例证。