Deportivo Alavés VS Real Betis

Alaves welcome Real Betis for this Spanish Copa del Rey (Spanish Cup) 1/16-finals battle at Estadio Mendizorrotza early Sunday morning Beijing time. Both teams play in the LaLiga. This league is the second-best in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of much better than average level by this competition's standards. Alaves are having a decent season. They were promoted from LaLiga2 to LaLiga for this season and have been a little better than I expected in in-depth my preseason analysis. They currently occupy the 15th place in LaLiga where a total of 20 clubs play. They have 15 points to their account and are far from safe from relegation! The bottom-3 teams will be relegated at the end of the season. Cadiz, currently in 18th place, have 15 points to their account. I believe that avoiding relegation is Alaves's main goal this season.. Their chances of winning Copa del Rey are, after all, extremely small! Alaves are a small club in terms of overall financial standards and players' estimated market value – for LaLiga standards I mean. Indeed, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, their players are valued at only around 74 million euros. This number is one of the smallest in LaLiga. In my expert opinion the 74 million is slightly too low though. The visitors are a much bigger club in terms of success in recent years and the squad's market value - which is over 200 million! This number is still a bit too low. This season Betis even played in the UEFA Europa League, finishing in 3rd place – after a lot of bad luck in several games. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they were the best team in Group C. They will play in the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoffs next month but can finally focus on this competition  - and LaLiga before this.. For Alaves playing at this level is only a distant dream! Yes, in terms of xPTS Alaves would have deserved more points than the actual number of 15 but cannot match Betis in any area of the game – not even close!

Alaves have scored only 15 goals in LaLiga so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is significantly higher. However, I would not be surprised if they were to fail to break the solid Betis defence. Alaves have conceded 25 goals and have not been lucky or unlucky in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA). The hosts have been in poor form lately. Indeed, they have taken just one win in their last five games. I want to highlight that this win came on the 6th of last month away from home against a very small team, Terrassa. This team play in the Segunda RFEF Group 3. The narrow 1-0 win in Copa del Rey did not impress me. Alaves were priced around 1.30-1.40 to win (during the 90 minutes of play) on the betting market. In their last game they faced a strong team, Real Sociedad, away from home and took a point through a 1-1 draw. However, their performance did not impress as Sociedad's A. Remiro was sent off in the 36th minute. This affected the events on the pitch significantly. The reason was handling the ball. Even so, the hosts had 53% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots on target, corner kicks as well as dangerous attacks. Real Socidad also generated more in xG – 1.33-1.06 to be precise. Before this they fought pretty well but deservedly lost to Real Madrid 0-1 at home. In round 17, on the 18th of last month, they did not have much of a chance away from home against Girona – losing 0-3. The home advantage is, of course, there but Alaves do not have particularly good fans by Spanish standards..

Betis, on the other hand, have not taken a win in their last five games. I will not let this fool me  - as my loyal fans know! They have faced strong opponents in four of these five matches. In their last game they played against Celta Vigo away from home – losing 1-2 as solid underdogs according to the bookies. I want to highlight that Celta are a much better team than the LaLiga standings (17th place) would suggest! This match could easily have gone either way. Indeed, Betis had 60% ball possession and recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. Celta did record more goal attempts, shots on goal as well as xG though. Before this Betis played well at home against Girona, who are currently in 2nd place with 48 points in their pocket, the same number as Real Madrid and seven more than Barcelona! It was a 1-1 draw but Betis recorded 21 goal attempts – Girona managed 12. Both teams had four shots on goal. Betis generated 1.76 in xG – Girona managed 1.54. Betis's number of xPTS is 31.34. Their offense has been a slight disappointment to me – there is no denying this.. However, they can improve in this area of the game as the season progresses! They have netted the ball 21 times in LaLiga but their number of xG is 28.99. Their defence, on the other hand, has been pretty solid and they have conceded only 20 goals. For example Girona have allowed 24 goals – and Barcelona 22. In the round 17 of LaLiga, a few weeks ago, Betis played well – taking a point from Real Sociedad, away from home through a goalless draw as very clear underdogs on the betting market. Betis even generated more than the hosts in xG – 1.41-0.98. Even with the expected lineups Betis deserve to be solid favourites here! The visitors do have a plethora of players unavailable at the moment as Claudio Bravo, Marc Barta, Youssouf Sabaly, Guido Rodriguez, Nabil Fekir, and Bellerin all on the sidelines but it seems the bookies give these absentees too much emphasis here. Some of the biggest bookies see the hosts as slim favourites here – some disagree slightly – and have Betis as extremely narrow favourites at the time of writing this preview early Saturday morning. However, odds of around 2.75 are widely available on Betis to win during the 90 minutes of play and this is surely too high. I see the visitors having a 43% chance to win but the recommended bet is Betis +0.5 goals with a big chance of winning once again. 0-1 is a probable score here..

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拉科鲁尼亚VS皇家贝蒂斯

北京时间周日凌晨，阿拉维斯将在门迪佐罗萨球场迎来皇家贝蒂斯的西班牙国王杯1/16决赛之战。两支球队都参加了西甲联赛。这个联赛是世界上第二好的。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比比赛平均水平好得多的比赛。阿拉维斯有一个不错的赛季。他们本赛季从西甲升入了西甲，比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好一些。他们目前在共有20家俱乐部参加的西甲联赛中排名第15位。他们的账户上有15分，离保级还差得很远!排名倒数第三的球队将在本赛季结束后降级。加的斯目前排名第18位，积分为15分。我相信保级是阿拉维斯本赛季的主要目标。毕竟，他们赢得国王杯的机会微乎其微!就整体财务标准和球员的估计市场价值而言，阿拉维斯是一家小俱乐部——我指的是西甲标准。事实上，根据一家知名且受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，他们的球员价值仅为7400万欧元左右。这个数字是西甲最小的数字之一。在我看来，7400万这个数字有点太低了。客队在最近几年取得了巨大的成功，球队的市场价值也超过了2亿英镑。这个数字还是太低了一点。本赛季贝蒂斯甚至参加了欧联杯，在几场比赛运气不佳之后，他们获得了第三名。就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们是c组中最好的球队。他们将在下个月参加欧联杯季后赛，但最终可以专注于这项比赛——在此之前还有西甲联赛。对阿拉维斯来说，在这个级别踢球只是一个遥远的梦想!是的，就积分而言，阿拉维斯应该得到比实际的15分更多的积分，但在比赛的任何方面都无法与贝蒂斯匹敌——甚至差得远!

到目前为止，阿拉维斯在西甲只进了15个球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)要高得多。然而，如果他们未能突破贝蒂斯坚固的防线，我也不会感到惊讶。阿拉维斯已经丢了25个球，在预期失球方面运气不佳或不佳(xGA)。东道主最近状态不佳。事实上，他们在最近的五场比赛中只取得了一场胜利。我想强调的是，这场胜利是在上个月6号客场对阵一支非常小的球队，特拉萨。这支球队在第二阶段的RFEF第三组比赛。国王杯1-0的险胜并没有打动我。在博彩市场上，阿拉维斯的胜率在1.30-1.40左右(在90分钟的比赛中)。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场面对一支强大的球队——皇家社会，并以1-1战平了一分。然而，他们的表现并没有给人留下深刻的印象，社会的雷米罗在第36分钟被红牌罚下。这对球场上的事件影响很大。原因在于控球。即便如此，东道主的控球率还是达到了53%，并且有更多的进球尝试、射正、射正、角球以及危险的进攻。《Real social》在xG(1.33-1.06)版本中生成的数据也更多。在此之前，他们打得很好，但在主场0-1输给了皇马。在上个月18日的第17轮比赛中，他们在客场对阵赫罗纳的比赛中没有多少机会——0-3输掉了比赛。当然，主场优势是存在的，但阿拉维斯并没有西班牙标准的特别好的球迷。

另一方面，贝蒂斯在最近的五场比赛中没有取得胜利。我不会让这件事愚弄我——我的忠实粉丝们都知道!他们在这五场比赛中有四场面对强大的对手。他们上一场客场对阵维戈塞尔塔，根据博彩公司的数据，他们1-2输掉了比赛。我想强调的是，塞尔塔是一支比西甲排名(第17位)所显示的要好得多的球队!这场比赛很容易就会出现两种结果。事实上，贝蒂斯有60%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进攻和危险进攻。塞尔塔的射门次数和射门次数都比xG多。在此之前，贝蒂斯在主场对阵赫罗纳的比赛中表现出色，赫罗纳目前以48分排名第二，与皇家马德里相同，比巴塞罗那多7分!虽然1-1战平，但贝蒂斯有21次进球，赫罗纳只有12次。两队都有四次射门。贝蒂斯在g赛季取得了1.76的进球，赫罗纳取得了1.54的进球。Betis的xPTS数为31.34。他们的进攻让我有点失望——这是不可否认的。然而,

随着赛季的进行，你可以在这方面有所提高!他们在西甲联赛中有21次进球，但他们的射门次数是28.99次。另一方面，他们的防守相当稳固，他们只丢了20个球。比如赫罗纳丢了24球，巴萨丢了22球。在几周前的西甲第17轮比赛中，贝蒂斯踢得很好——从皇家社会那里拿了一分，客场一场0比0的平局，在博彩市场上，贝蒂斯显然处于劣势。贝蒂斯甚至比xG - 1.41-0.98中的宿主产生的还要多。即使有了预期的阵容，贝蒂斯在这里也应该是最受欢迎的!客队目前确实有很多球员不能上场，比如克劳迪奥·布拉沃、马克·巴尔塔、尤素福·萨巴利、吉多·罗德里格斯、纳比尔·费基尔和贝莱林都缺阵，但似乎博彩公司对这些缺阵球员的重视程度太高了。一些最大的博彩公司认为东道主在这里的胜算很小——有些人略有不同——在周六早上写这篇预告的时候，贝蒂斯的胜算非常小。然而，在90分钟的比赛中，贝蒂斯赢球的赔率普遍在2.75左右，这肯定太高了。我认为客队有43%的获胜机会，但我建议赌贝蒂斯+0.5球，再次获胜的机会很大。0比1很可能是比分。