Sassuolo VS Fiorentina

Sassuolo and Fiorentina lock horns in this Italian Serie A round 19 battle at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league in the world. Football fans and us serious bettors - with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of slightly better than average level by this league's standards here. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very promising betting opportunity to extend the hot winning streak of eight picks – at the time of writing this analysis Friday evening Beijing time! Fiorentina currently occupy the 4th place in the league table. They have 33 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is massively lower – 23.12 to be precise! With 23 points they would be in the 11th place in the standings.. They have netted the ball 27 times in this league so far this season but their number of expected goals (xG) is only 21.05! Indeed, their offense has been very far from top-6 level so far and their potential for improvement in this area of the game is somewhat limited. Their attacks often lack creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments. Only by taking a look at the number of goals Fiorentina have conceded it would be easy for a recreational bettor – or stupid bookie – to think that their defence has been really solid but as my fans know any statistics do not fool me! Indeed, the visitors have allowed 18 goals – two goals less than a big club, AC Milan, currently in 3rd place. I want to highlight that the visitors' number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 28.07! Even so, their defence is not bad – mediocre would be a more correct word. Fiorentina's defence is still moderately better than that of Sassuolo. The hosts have allowed 33 goals and their number of xGA is 29.98.

Last season Fiorentina finished in 8th place with 56 points to their account. I expect something similar to them this season.. Sassuolo, on the other hand, finished in 13th place but were very unlucky in terms of xPTS. Their number of xPTS last season was only about three points smaller than that of Fiorentina. I am mentioning this mainly because not that has massively changed after last season.. Fiorentina currently occupy the 9th place in my power rating. The visitors, on the other hand, are only in 12th place in the rating.. This rating reflects the teams ' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding motivation and possible fatigue due to a demanding schedule. Yes, by pure class Fiorentina are the better team by pure class but only by a narrow margin! Sassuolo have taken 16 points so far but their number of xPTS is 22.98. They have scored 25 goals and their number of xG is a bit higher. The visitors have been in much better form recently and are surely the more confident team at the moment. I have, of course, taken this into account in my expert analysis. The hosts have not won any of their last five games. However, they had some bad luck in some of these games and would have deserved more points in terms xPTS. For example, on the 22nd December they lost to Genoa 1-2 at home despite generating 2.32 in xG – the visitors managed only 1.32. Fiorentina have won three of their last five games. In their last game they beat Torino at home 1-0 in a somewhat balanced clash. They generated 0.69 in xG – Torino managed 0.42. Both teams recorded three shots on target and Fiorentina had 52% ball possession. It could easily have been a draw - or even an away win.. In round 16 they were extremely lucky to take all three points at home against Verona as big favourites - priced around 1.45 to win by the bookies. Amazingly, Verona recorded 2.98 in xG – Fiorentina only managed 0.48 despite having 66% ball possession! Moreover, Verona - a pretty small team -  currently in 17th place - recorded many more goal attempts (19-5) as well as shots on target (7-3) and shots off goal (7-1). This was yet another example of Fiorentina being overvalued on the betting market! Sassuolo played a Coppa Italia (Italian Cup) game on Wednesday. This does affect their chances here. However, the tempo of the game was not very high - especially in the second second half after Atalanta had scored the 2-0 goal. I believe the bookies give this possible fatigue too much emphasis here. With the expected lineups - taking this " fatigue factor" and the hosts' poor form into account -  Fiorentina do deserve to be the favourites – but only very narrowly! Let's not forget that the Serie A has - on average -  one of the biggest home win percentages among the top-20 leagues on the planet. Sassuolo do have loyal and pretty loud fans – despite not being among the most enthusiastic in Italy.. The biggest bookies offer Fiorentina odds of around 2.15 to take all three points and this is way too low. Based on my strongly data-based in-depth analysis Sassuolo +0.5 goals is the obvious smart bet for a professional football bettors here here! Fiorentina are missing Castrovilli, Dodo, Gonzalez, Kouame and Sottil. The hosts will be without Alvarez - Defrel, Obiang, Racic and Vina are questionable.

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萨索洛VS佛罗伦萨

北京时间周日凌晨，萨索洛和佛罗伦萨将在意大利甲级联赛第19轮的比赛中在雷焦艾米利亚的马佩球场对阵三色城。这是世界上第四好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平略好一点的比赛。最重要的是，在北京时间周五晚上写这篇分析的时候，我和我的粉丝还有另一个非常有希望的投注机会，可以延续八连胜!佛罗伦萨目前在联赛中排名第四。他们已经拿到了33分。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)要低得多——准确地说是23.12 !如果得到23分，他们将排在积分榜第11位。本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛中取得了27次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)只有21.05个!事实上，到目前为止，他们的进攻还远没有达到前六的水平，而且他们在这方面的提升潜力有限。在关键时刻，他们的进攻往往缺乏创造力和传球准确性。只要看看佛罗伦萨的失球数，就很容易让一个娱乐赌徒——或者愚蠢的赌徒——认为他们的防守真的很稳固，但我的球迷知道，任何数据都骗不了我!事实上，客队丢了18个球，比目前排名第三的豪门AC米兰少了2个。我想强调的是客队的预期进球(xGA)是28.07!即便如此，他们的防守还不错——用“平庸”这个词更合适。佛罗伦萨的防守仍然比萨索洛要好一些。东道主失球33个，进球数29.98个。

上赛季佛罗伦萨以56分的积分排名第8。我希望这个赛季也能有类似的表现。另一方面，萨索洛排在第13位，但在xPTS方面非常不走运。上赛季他们的得分只比佛罗伦萨少了3分。我之所以提到这一点，主要是因为在上个赛季之后，情况并没有发生很大的变化。佛罗伦萨目前在我的力量排名中排名第九。另一方面，访客在排名中只排在第12位。这一评级反映了球队的纯粹等级，包括最好的首发11人——不包括动力和由于高日程安排而可能产生的疲劳。是的，从纯粹的水平来看，佛罗伦萨是一支更好的球队，但只是微弱的差距!萨索洛目前已经拿到了16分，但是他们的得分是22.98分。他们已经进了25个球，他们的球员数量也要多一些。客队最近的状态好多了，现在肯定是一支更有信心的球队。当然，在我的专业分析中，我已经考虑到了这一点。东道主在最近五场比赛中一场也没赢过。然而，他们在其中一些比赛中运气不佳，从xPTS的角度来看，他们应该得到更多的分数。例如，12月22日，他们主场1-2不敌热那亚，尽管他们在比赛中取得了2.32的进球——客队只取得了1.32的进球。佛罗伦萨在最近五场比赛中赢了三场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以1比0击败了都灵队。他们在xG取得了0.69的进球，而都灵取得了0.42的进球。两队都有3次射正，佛罗伦萨有52%的控球率。这很可能是一场平局，甚至是客场获胜。在第16轮，他们非常幸运地在主场对维罗纳的比赛中拿到了全部三分，被认为是大热门——博彩公司开出的胜率约为1.45分。令人惊讶的是，维罗纳在xG比赛中取得了2.98的进球，而佛罗伦萨在控球率高达66%的情况下只取得了0.48的进球!此外，维罗纳——一支相当小的球队——目前排名第17位，他们的进球次数(19胜5负)、射正(7胜3负)和射偏(7胜1负)都要多得多。这是佛罗伦萨在博彩市场上被高估的又一个例子!萨索洛在周三踢了一场意大利杯。这确实影响了他们在这里的机会。然而，比赛的节奏并不是非常快，尤其是在亚特兰大2-0进球后的下半场。我认为博彩公司在这里过分强调了这种可能的疲劳。考虑到预期的阵容——考虑到“疲劳因素”和东道主糟糕的状态——佛罗伦萨确实应该成为夺冠热门——但只差一点点!让我们不要忘记，意甲联赛的平均主场胜率是世界前20强联赛中最高的之一。萨索洛确实有忠诚和pre

非常大声的球迷——尽管不是意大利最热情的球迷……最大的博彩公司为佛罗伦萨提供2.15左右的赔率来获得所有三分，这太低了。根据我基于数据的深度分析，萨索洛+0.5球显然是职业足球投注者的明智选择!佛罗伦萨失去了卡斯特罗维利、多多、冈萨雷斯、库梅和索蒂尔。东道主将失去阿尔瓦雷斯——德弗雷尔、奥比昂、拉西奇和维纳都是未知数。