Frosinone VS Monza

Frosinone and Monza lock horns in this Italian Serie A round 19 battle at Stadio Benito Stirpe late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league on the planet. Football fans and us serious bettors - with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of pretty average level by this league's standards here. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity to extend the hot winning streak of eight picks – at the time of writing this analysis late Friday evening Beijing time! Frosinone were promoted from the Serie B to this level for this season. They have surprised me, probably many other professional bettors – and quite possibly themselves as well so far this season! I have reacted to their performances accordingly. The bookies should stop underestimating this relatively small team in terms of overall financial resources and players' estimated market value. Frosinone currently occupy the 13th place in my power rating. They played very well as a team – performing at a better level than the list of players. The visitors, on the other hand, are only in 12th place in the rating.. This rating reflects the teams ' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding motivation and possible fatigue due to a grueling schedule. Frosinone have a respectable 19 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is 23.02. They have netted the ball 23 times in the Serie A so far. This is seven goals more than Monza have scored! Monza have been somewhat unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). As for the hosts the actual number of goals scored is almost the same as their number of xG. 23 goals scored is a good number as for example Bologna, currently in 5th place with 31 points, have scored "only" 21 goals.

Defensively Frosinone have struggled but can improve in this area of the game as the season progresses. They have conceded 31 goals and their number of expected goals (xGA) is 28.12. They are undoubtedly a bit limited in terms of individual skill in defence. Their defenders have also made too many silly mistakes – especially in away games. Furthermore, some of their midfielders should run a bit more – taking part in defending more actively. At home Frosinone have performed well so far - taking five wins and two two draws in their nine games in front of loyal, but not the loudest fans – in Serie A this season. Monza are a somewhat lame team on the road. They have won only two of their most recent away games. They are often too passive - and sometimes even a bit lazy away from home.. Monza have conceded only 18 goals in this league so far. However, I want to highlight that this number is massively misleading! Their number of xGA is 31.11! What a huge difference. I am pretty sure many recreational bettors and the bookies as well fail to understand how shaky the Monza defence has been! Monza's number of xPTS is 19.76 – lower than that of the hosts! With the expected lineups there is no doubt about the fact that Frosinone are the favourites here. The hosts are missing Ibrahimovic and Marchizza. Baez, Kalaj, Lirola and Oyono are questionable. Monza will be without Caprari, Maric and Papu Gomez. Carboni is questionable. The biggest bookies who accept the largest bets from customers see the hosts as extremely marginal favourites here – offering them odds of 2.70 to send the visitors home empty-handed. This is too high as they have a 44% Chance to win. We will take them with the +0.5 goals handicap option. I will be posting some more picks - on big games – in the next 5-6 hours.

Neither team have been in good form results-wise recently. Monza have won just one of their last seven games. They have lost two of their last three matches. In their most recent game they were lucky to get a point away from home against Napoli. The hosts recorded 25 goal attempts – Monza managed only eight. Napoli also had many more shots on goal and corner kicks - 10-1! The hosts generated 2.31 in xG – Monza's number was 1.19. Before this they were disappointing and suffered a 0-1 defeat against Fiorentina at home. The visitors deserved to win - generating 2.01 in xG – Monza managed only 0.55. In round 16 AC Milan crushed Monza 3-0. Frosinone lost their most recent game 1-3 in Rome. Lazio, who were heavy favourites in this game – priced around 1.55-1.60 to win on the betting market were the better team on the pitch as a whole but Frosinone fought well and could easily have taken at least a point. Lazio generated 1.54 in xG – the visitors' number was 1.19. Lazio recorded 13 goal attempts – Frosinone managed 11..

弗罗西诺内VS蒙扎

北京时间周六晚，弗罗西诺内和蒙扎将在意甲第19轮的贝尼托斯特佩球场展开激战。这是世界上第四好的联盟。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看相当平均水平的比赛。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝还有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会，可以延续八次抽彩的连胜纪录——在北京时间周五晚上写这篇分析的时候!弗罗西诺内本赛季从乙级提升到这个级别。这个赛季到目前为止，他们让我感到惊讶，可能也让许多其他职业投注者感到惊讶——很可能也让他们自己感到惊讶!我对他们的表演作出了相应的反应。博彩公司应该停止低估这支相对较小的球队的整体财务资源和球员的估计市场价值。弗罗西诺内目前在我的能量评级中排名第13位。他们作为一个团队踢得很好，比球员们的表现要好。另一方面，访客在排名中只排在第12位。这一评级反映了球队的纯粹等级，包括最好的首发11人——排除了由于紧张的赛程而产生的动力和可能的疲劳。弗罗西诺内拿到了可观的19分。然而，他们的期望点数(xPTS)是23.02。到目前为止，他们在意甲联赛中打进23球。这比蒙扎多进了7个球!蒙扎在预期进球方面有些不走运。至于东道主，他们的实际进球数和他们的进球数几乎是一样的。23球是一个很好的数字，例如博洛尼亚，目前以31分排名第五，只进了21球。

弗罗西诺内在防守方面表现不佳，但随着赛季的进展，他可以在这方面有所提高。他们已经丢了31个球，他们的预期进球数(xGA)是28.12。毫无疑问，他们在防守方面的个人技术有些有限。他们的后卫也犯了太多愚蠢的错误——尤其是在客场比赛中。此外，他们的一些中场应该多跑动一点——更积极地参与防守。到目前为止，弗罗西诺内在主场的表现很好，在忠诚但不是最大声的球迷面前，他们在本赛季的9场比赛中取得了5胜2平的成绩。蒙扎在路上是一支有点蹩脚的车队。他们在最近的客场比赛中只赢了两场。他们往往太被动了，有时甚至在离开家的时候有点懒。蒙扎目前在联赛中只丢了18个球。然而，我想强调的是，这个数字具有很大的误导性!他们的xGA数是31.11!多么巨大的差异啊。我敢肯定，许多娱乐投注者和博彩公司也不明白蒙扎的防守是多么不稳定!Monza的xPTS数是19.76，比东道主少!有了预期的阵容，毫无疑问弗罗西诺内是最受欢迎的。东道主失去了伊布和马尔基扎。贝兹、卡拉吉、利罗拉和奥约诺都有问题。蒙扎将失去卡普拉里、马里奇和帕普·戈麦斯。Carboni是有问题的。接受顾客最大投注的最大博彩公司认为东道主在这里的胜算极小——他们开出2.70的赔率，让访客空手而归。这太高了，因为他们有44%的机会获胜。我们将采用+0.5目标障碍选项。我将在接下来的5-6个小时内发布更多关于大型比赛的精选。

这两支球队最近的成绩都不太好。蒙扎在过去的七场比赛中只赢了一场。他们最近三场比赛输了两场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们很幸运地在客场对阵那不勒斯时拿到了一分。东道主有25次进球尝试，而蒙扎只有8次。那不勒斯也有更多的射门和角球——10比1!东道主在xG中产生了2.31，而蒙扎的数字是1.19。在此之前，他们的表现令人失望，在主场0-1输给了佛罗伦萨。客队理应获胜——在xG产生2.01分，而蒙扎只产生0.55分。在第16轮比赛中，AC米兰3-0击败蒙扎。弗罗西诺内在罗马以1-3输掉了他们最近的比赛。拉齐奥在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的球队，在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.55-1.60，他们在球场上整体表现更好，但弗罗西诺内打得很好，可以轻松地至少拿一分。拉齐奥在2009年创造了1.54个进球，而客队的数字是1.19个。拉齐奥13次射门，弗罗西诺内11次。