Norwich City VS Southampton

Norwich welcome Southampton for this English Championship round 26 battle at Carrow Road late Monday evening Beijing time. This is the best second-tier in the world! Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of high level by this league's standards. Most importantly, we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here! My fans and I have won six of the last seven picks in this league. Norwich currently occupy the 13th place in the league table. There is no denying the fact that their season has been a disappointment – results-wise in particular. However, the hosts number of expected points (xPTS) is 37.54. They can definitely improve in all areas of the game as the season progresses. Offensively they have been pretty strong this season. Indeed, they have netted the ball a fine 41 times in this league this season. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 42.19. In this area of the game the teams are more or less equal with the expected lineups. The hosts will be without Sorensen. Southampton will be missing Bree, Larios, Stewart and Sulemana. However, the hosts' defence has not been solid enough and they have conceded 41 goals in the Championship. Their defence has a pretty okay structure but their defenders have made too many silly individual mistakes in many matches. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is lower though - 36.07 to be precise. In their last game Norwich lost to Millwall on the road 0-1 as pretty clear underdogs according to the bookies. However, they could easily have taken a point – or possibly even all three points. Indeed, Norwich had 65% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts and shots off target than Millwall. Moreover, they recorded many more attacks (127-71) and dangerous attacks – 64-37. Norwich have lost three of their last 10 games. At home they have taken three wins and a draw in their last games. Indeed, their fans are among the best in this league - very loud and enthusiastic. Taking this factor into account Southampton are only very narrow favourites based on my strongly data-based expert analysis. The biggest bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers – offer the visitors odds of only around 2.15 to win. Norwich +0.5 goals is the obvious smart bet here.

Southampton were relegated from the Premier League to this level for this season. They were indeed weak last season and we can say that they deserved to be relegated. They have not fully met my (high) expectations this season.. They currently occupy the third place in the standings with 51 points to their account but their number of xPTS is somewhat lower. Ipswich - a much smaller team in terms of financial resources and players' estimated market value – according to Transfermarkt.com – have taken three more points than Southampton! The visitors have scored 45 goals but their number of xG is only 0.32 goals bigger than that of Norwich.. Southampton's defence has worked better than Norwich's but does have some surprisingly big weaknesses.. They often play very aggressive football – taking big risks – even in away games.. I expect Norwich to play well-structured and patient football here. The home fans will surely understand this and as they, too, know that Southampton are the better team here by pure class. The hosts' smart coach and players surely know that they can hurt Southampton through fast counter attacks.. Southampton have allowed 30 goals in this league so far – this is many more than for example Coventry (27), currently in 12th place. Southampton have not lost a game for quite a long time but have, as a result, become way too hot on the betting market! I want to highlight that they have had some luck on their side in many games in October, November and December.. Away from home they have won just one of their last four games.. In their most recent game Southampton defeated Plymouth at home 2-1 as gigantic favourites – priced around 1.30 to win by the bookmakers. They did deserve the win but Plymouth played below their normal level in this game. Before this they beat Swansea 5-0 at home and were definitely the better team on the pitch. However, Swansea have not been strong this season and are in 17th place. In this game Southampton were priced around 1.45 to take all three points on the betting market. The final score clearly flatters Southampton! Indeed, they generated "only" 1.84 in xG – Swansea managed 0.52.

诺维奇VS南安普顿

北京时间周一晚，诺维奇将在卡罗路迎接南安普顿的第26轮英超之战。这是世界上最好的二线球队!足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的高水平比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!我的球迷和我赢得了这个联盟最近7次选秀中的6次。诺维奇目前在联赛中排名第13位。不可否认的事实是他们这个赛季的表现令人失望，尤其是在成绩方面。但是，主机的期望点数(xPTS)是37.54。随着赛季的进行，他们在比赛的各个方面都有进步。他们本赛季的进攻相当强大。事实上，他们本赛季在联赛中有41次进球。他们的预期进球数(xG)为42.19。在比赛的这个领域，球队或多或少与预期的阵容相等。东道主将没有索伦森。南安普顿将失去布里、拉里奥斯、斯图尔特和苏莱曼纳。然而，东道主的防守还不够稳固，他们在联赛中丢了41个球。他们的防守结构还不错，但他们的后卫在很多比赛中犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误。他们的预期进球(xGA)更低，准确地说是36.07个。在上一场比赛中，诺维奇在客场0-1输给了米尔沃尔，根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然处于劣势。然而，他们本可以轻易得一分，甚至可能全取三分。事实上，诺维奇有65%的控球率，比米尔沃尔有更多的射门次数和射偏次数。此外，他们记录了更多的攻击(127-71)和危险的攻击(64-37)。诺维奇在最近10场比赛中输了3场。在主场，他们在最近的比赛中取得了三胜一平的成绩。事实上，他们的球迷是联盟中最好的——非常大声和热情。考虑到这一因素，根据我基于数据的专家分析，南安普顿只是非常狭窄的热门球队。最大的博彩公司接受顾客最大的赌注，给游客的赔率只有2.15左右。诺维奇+0.5球显然是明智的选择。

南安普顿本赛季从英超降级到这个级别。他们上个赛季确实很弱，我们可以说他们应该降级。他们本赛季没有完全达到我的(高)期望。他们目前以51分排名第三，但他们的xPTS数量略低。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，伊普斯维奇在财力和球员的估计市场价值方面都要小得多，但却比南安普顿多拿了3分!客队进了45个球，但他们的进球数只比诺维奇多0.32个。南安普顿的防守比诺维奇做得更好，但也有一些令人惊讶的大弱点。他们经常踢非常有侵略性的足球——冒着很大的风险——即使是在客场比赛中。我希望诺维奇在这里踢出有组织有耐心的足球。主场球迷肯定会理解这一点，因为他们也知道南安普顿在这里是一支更好的球队。东道主聪明的教练和球员肯定知道他们可以通过快速反击来伤害南安普顿。到目前为止，南安普顿在联赛中丢了30个球，比考文垂(27个)多很多，考文垂目前排在第12位。南安普顿已经很长时间没有输过一场比赛了，但结果是，他们在博彩市场上变得太热了!我想强调的是，他们在10月、11月和12月的许多比赛中都有一些运气。在客场，他们最近四场比赛只赢了一场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，南安普顿在主场2-1击败普利茅斯，成为最大的夺冠热门，博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.30英镑。他们确实配得上这场胜利，但是普利茅斯在这场比赛中的表现低于他们的正常水平。在此之前，他们在主场5-0击败了斯旺西，在球场上绝对是一支更好的球队。然而，斯旺西本赛季表现不佳，排在第17位。在这场比赛中，南安普顿的价格约为1.45，可以在博彩市场上获得所有三分。最后的比分显然对南安普顿有利!事实上，他们在xG中“仅”产生了1.84个数据，而斯旺西则达到了0.52个。