Sunderland VS Preston North End

Sunderland host Preston for this English Championship round 26 battle at Stadium of Light - in front of very loud home fans - Monday evening Beijing time. This is undoubtedly clearly the best second-tier on the planet! Football fans and us serious bettors - with a long-term profit in mind -  can expect a match of better than average level by this league's standards here. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very promising betting opportunity! We have won six of the last seven picks in the Championship! Sunderland currently occupy the 7th place in the league table. They are playing a pretty strong season – as I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis.. The hosts are in fierce fight for a place in the Playoffs at the end of the season. The top-2 are promoted to the Premier League directly. The teams that finish 3rd-6th will play in the Playoffs. It is improbable that Sunderland would be able to topple any of the top-4 teams but I see them having a big chance to topple either West Bromwich - or more probably Hull (6th) place – or possibly both during the remainder of the season! They currently occupy the 6th place in my power rating. The visitors, on the other hand, are only in the 16th place in the rating.. This rating reflects the teams ' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding motivation and possible fatigue due to a tough schedule. Last season Sunderland finished in 6th place with a fine 69 points to their account. Their score difference was good – 68:55. Preston ended up in the 12th place with a poor score difference of 45:59! This season the gap between the teams has increased – by pure class  I mean. Sunderland have a strong 37 points in their pocket and their number of expected points (xPTS) is 42.24. They can definitely improve in all areas of the game as the season progresses! They should be more creative offensively and pass the ball more accurately if they want to be promoted to the Premier League for the next season.. Furthermore, their midfielders should be more active in attacking.. Buying a new, fast striker in January might also be a good idea.. However, even with the current squad they are very clear favourites here! The current odds of around 1.60 on the home win offered by the biggest bookies are a little lower than I would have hoped for but are still too high! 

The hosts have scored 34 goals in this league so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is significantly higher. Preston, on the other hand, have netted the ball 31 times and I do not see them having potential to score more goals per game in the future - probably they will score less goals! In terms of defensive quality the hosts have a bigger advantage over Preston than in terms of offensive capability. Indeed, Sunderland have conceded only 28 goals, less than Ipswich (2nd place) or Southampton (3rd). It is hard to write anything negative on their defence. Well, perhaps their defenders could sometimes clear the ball a bit faster.. The Preston defence, on the other hand, has been shaky! Indeed, they have allowed 42 goals. They are often too passive, especially against the top-10 teams. This usually leads to too big pressure on their defence - especially late into the second half. Their defenders also make too many silly individual mistakes - often because of trying to give too risky passes.. They simply lack quality in all areas of the game to even dream of a top-8 position, not to mention being promoted to the Premier League. According to a well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com, their players have an estimated total market value of about 40 million euros. This is a little too high in my expert opinion. The Sunderland squad is valued at around 80 million. I would say that 87-90 million would be a more fair number..

These two teams last locked horns on the 12th of August and Preston took a 2-1 home win. However, this win was an undeserved one! Indeed, Sunderland had 55% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (16-9), shots on goal, corner kicks as well as dangerous attacks – 65-28. They also generated much more in xG – 1.54-0.57 to be precise. It seems that this result affects the odds too much here.. In May Sunderland crushed Preston 3-0 away from home! Sunderland were disappointing in their last game despite taking a point away from home against Rotherham. It was a 1-1 draw but Sunderland were very clear favourites. They had close to 70% ball possession but generated only 0.54 in xG. I will not overreact to this lame offensive performance as Rotherham played one of their best games this season - much above their normal level. Before this Sunderland played well away from home - beating Hull 1-0 after generating 1.13 in xG. Hull managed 0.65. Preston, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four games. In their most recent match they were disappointing – especially offensively. Indeed, they lost to Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 after generating only 0.33 in xG. Preston were priced around 2.25-2.35 by the bookies to take all three points in this game. This was yet another example of them being overvalued on the betting market! Before this they took a very lucky win at home over a strong team Leeds. Indeed, Leeds generated much more in xG than Preston – 1.76-0.34 to be precise.. I believe the bookies give way too much credit for this win..

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桑德兰VS普雷斯顿北区

北京时间周一晚上，桑德兰主场迎战普雷斯顿，将在光明球场迎战英格兰足球锦标赛第26轮。这无疑是世界上最好的二线球队!足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场高于联赛平均水平的比赛。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝又有了一个非常有希望的投注机会!我们在过去的7次选秀中赢了6次!桑德兰目前在积分榜上排名第七。他们打出了一个非常强大的赛季——正如我在季前赛的深入分析中所预期的那样。东道主正在激烈争夺赛季末的季后赛席位。前2名直接晋级英超联赛。排名第3 -6的球队将参加季后赛。桑德兰不太可能推翻前四的任何一支球队，但我认为他们有很大的机会推翻西布朗维奇，或者更有可能是赫尔城(第6名)，或者在本赛季剩下的时间里同时推翻这两支球队!他们目前在我的能量评级中排名第六。另一方面，游客在排名中只排在第16位。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，包括最好的首发11人——排除了由于赛程紧张而产生的动力和可能的疲劳。上赛季桑德兰以69分的积分排名第六。他们的比分差距很大——68:55。普雷斯顿以45:59的差分排在第12位!本赛季两队之间的差距加大了——我指的是纯粹的等级差距。桑德兰目前拥有37分的优势，他们的预期积分是42.24分。随着赛季的进行，他们在比赛的各个方面都有进步!如果他们想在下赛季升入英超，他们应该在进攻端更有创造力，传球更准确。此外，他们的中场应该在进攻中更加积极。在一月份买一个新的快速前锋可能也是个好主意。然而，即使以目前的阵容，他们在这里也是非常明显的热门!目前最大的博彩公司提供的主场胜率约为1.60，比我希望的要低一些，但仍然太高了!

到目前为止，东道主在联赛中打进了34球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)要高得多。另一方面，普雷斯顿已经打进了31球，我不认为他们有潜力在未来的场均进球更多——也许他们会进更少的球!就防守质量而言，主队比普雷斯顿在进攻能力方面有更大的优势。事实上，桑德兰只丢了28个球，比伊普斯维奇(第二名)和南安普顿(第三名)还少。很难对他们的防守做出任何负面评价。嗯，也许他们的后卫有时可以更快一点解围。另一方面，普雷斯顿的防守一直很不稳定!事实上，他们已经丢了42个球。他们往往过于被动，尤其是面对排名前十的球队。这通常会给他们的防守带来太大的压力，尤其是在下半场后期。他们的后卫也犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误——通常是因为试图给太危险的传球。他们在比赛的各个方面都缺乏实力，甚至无法梦想进入前八，更不用说升入英超了。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，他们的球员的总市值估计约为4000万欧元。以我的专业意见，这有点太高了。桑德兰队的身价约为8000万英镑。我认为8700万到9000万是比较合理的数字。

这两支球队上一次交锋是在8月12日，普雷斯顿主场2-1获胜。然而，这场胜利是不值得的!事实上，桑德兰有55%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(16-9次)、射正、角球和危险进攻——65比28。他们在xG(准确地说是1.54-0.57)中也产生了更多。这个结果似乎对这里的赔率影响太大了。五月，桑德兰客场3-0大胜普雷斯顿!桑德兰在上一场比赛中令人失望，尽管他们在客场对罗瑟勒姆的比赛中拿到了一分。虽然比分是1比1，但桑德兰显然是夺冠热门。他们有接近70%的控球率，但在罚球上只产生了0.54。我不会对这场蹩脚的进攻表现反应过度，因为罗瑟勒姆打出了他们本赛季最好的比赛之一——远远超出了他们的正常水平。在此之前，桑德兰在客场踢得很好

在xG生成1.13后1-0击败赫尔城赫尔获得0.65分。另一方面，普雷斯顿最近四场比赛输了三场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们表现得令人失望，尤其是在进攻端。事实上，他们以0比1输给了谢菲尔德星期三，他们在上一场比赛中只有0.33个进球。博彩公司给普雷斯顿开出了2.25-2.35分的价格，以获得本场比赛的全部三分。这是他们在博彩市场上被高估的又一个例子!在此之前，他们非常幸运地在主场战胜了强队利兹。的确，利兹联队的g值比普雷斯顿高得多——准确地说是1.76比0.34。我认为博彩公司对这场胜利给予了太多的信任。