Birmingham City VS Bristol City

Birmingham welcome Bristol City for this English Championship round 25 battle at St. Andrew's Stadium. This is the best second-tier in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of average level by this league's standards. Birmingham currently occupy the 19th place in the standings. There is no denying the fact that their season has been a slight disappointment – especially results-wise. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is 32.64. They can improve in all areas of the game as the season progresses. Offensively they have been okay this season. Indeed, they have netted the ball a respectable 30 times in this league this season. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 32.1. However, their defence has not been good enough and they have conceded 38 goals. Their defence has a decent structure but their defenders have made too many mistakes in many games. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 36.12. In their last game they lost to Stoke at home 1-3 as narrow underdogs according to the bookies. This was, however, yet another unlucky result for them. Indeed, they recorded many more goal attempts, shots off target, corner kicks as well as attacks than Stoke. They also generated more in xG – 1.89-1.56 to be precise. Before this they played pretty well too – taking a point from Plymouth away from home as pretty clear underdogs through a 3-3 draw. In this game they had only 33% ball possession but recorded more goal attempts (11-8), shots on goal and shots off target than the hosts. They also generated 1.85 in xG – Plymouth managed 1.34.

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players have an estimated total market value of about 48 million euros. The Bristol City squad, on the other hand, are valued at only around 38 million. Both numbers are more or less correct. Both teams are expected to have at least six players missing here. The hosts' C. Drameh situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview. With the expected lineups I see the visitors as marginally the better team here. However, with the substantial home advantage the hosts deserve to be slim favourites. Indeed, I disagree with the bookies who see Bristol City as the favourites – offering them odds of around 2.55 to take all three points. The hosts +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here. Bristol City have been slightly better so far than I expected in my preseason analysis. They have grabbed a total of 35 points but their number of xPTS is lower - 33.12. They are in the 9th place in the league table but have only four points more to their account than Blackburn – currently in the 15th place. Yes, they have now won three games in a row but all three matches haven been relatively balanced in terms of xG. They could easily have lost one – or even more - of these three games.. They are - as result of these wins - now too hot on the betting market and have to be opposed here!

伯明翰VS布里斯托尔

伯明翰欢迎布里斯托尔城参加在圣安德鲁球场举行的英格兰锦标赛第25轮比赛。这是世界上最好的二线球队。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的平均水平的比赛。伯明翰目前排名第19位。不可否认的事实是，他们的赛季有点令人失望——尤其是在成绩方面。但是，它们的期望值点数(xPTS)是32.64。随着赛季的进行，他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高。他们本赛季的进攻还不错。事实上，他们本赛季在联赛中有30次进球。他们的预期目标数(xG)是32.1。然而，他们的防守还不够好，他们丢了38个球。他们的防守结构很好，但是他们的后卫在很多比赛中犯了太多的错误。他们的预期进球数(xGA)是36.12。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场1-3不敌斯托克城，根据博彩公司的预测，他们处于劣势。然而，这对他们来说又是一个不幸的结果。事实上，他们的进球次数、射偏次数、角球次数以及进攻次数都比斯托克城多。他们在xG(1.89-1.56)中也产生了更多。在此之前，他们也打得很好，在客场以3-3战平普利茅斯，从普利茅斯那里拿了一分。在这场比赛中，他们只有33%的控球率，但射门次数(11比8)、射正和射偏都比东道主多。他们在xG赛季的进球数是1.85，普利茅斯是1.34。

根据德国知名知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，东道主球员的总市值估计约为4800万欧元。另一方面，布里斯托尔城队的价值仅为3800万英镑左右。这两个数字多少都是正确的。预计两队至少有6名球员缺席。在撰写这篇预告时，主持人C.德拉梅的情况尚不清楚。从预期的阵容来看，我认为客队在这里的表现稍好一些。然而，凭借巨大的主场优势，东道主理应成为微弱的热门。事实上，我不同意那些把布里斯托尔城视为夺冠热门的博彩公司——他们开出2.55左右的赔率，让他们拿到全部三分。东道主+0.5个进球的劣势显然是明智的选择。到目前为止，布里斯托尔城的表现比我在季前赛分析中预期的要好一些。他们总共拿到了35分，但他们的xPTS数较低，为33.12分。他们在积分榜上排名第9，但只比目前排名第15的布莱克本多4分。是的，他们现在已经连续赢了三场比赛，但这三场比赛在xG方面都相对平衡。他们本可以很容易地输掉这三场比赛中的一场，甚至更多场。由于这些胜利，他们现在在博彩市场上太热了，不得不在这里反对!